Good morning!
It's a jam-packed week on Wall Street, with heavyweight earnings, A Fed meeting, and crucial unemployment numbers. Here's what's happening...
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It's the high season for Q2 earnings, with more than 1,000 companies reporting this week. This morning, reports are due from Visa, Procter & Gamble, UnitedHealth, AstraZeneca, Merck, Boeing, Spotify, and Starbucks, followed Wednesday by Microsoft, Meta (Facebook), UBS, HSBC, QUALCOMM, Arm Holdings, and ADP. Thursday earnings are up for Apple, Amazon, Mastercard, AbbVie, S&P Global, Unilever, and Anheuser-Busch, followed Friday by Berkshire Hathaway, Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Enbridge, and Colgate-Palmolive. *
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Looking beyond earnings season, all eyes are on the Federal Reserve as it kicks off its two-day policy meeting on Tuesday. While no big surprises are expected—rates will likely stay put at 4.25% to 4.50%—investors are tuning in for any hints that a rate cut could be on the table come September. Adding to the intrigue is the ongoing pressure from President Trump, who’s been vocal about his criticism of the Fed and Chair Jerome Powell. **
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The Fed’s policy meeting this week comes without one key piece of data: the July jobs report, which won’t be released until Friday. Economists are predicting a modest gain of around 106,000 new jobs, mostly from the private sector. That’s a step down from June’s stronger-than-expected 147,000 increase, which was largely boosted by a temporary spike in public-sector hiring due to seasonal quirks tied to the school calendar. What’s especially interesting is that the unemployment rate might actually dip from 4.1%—not because more people are getting hired, but according to at least one analyst could be due to fewer people actively looking for work. They point out that the shrinking labor supply is a bigger issue than many realize. If the jobless rate drops below 4%, it could rattle both the bond and stock markets, as investors reassess what it means for the Fed’s next move. ***
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