Good morning!


The historically cruelest month for the markets went out with a whimper, thanks to a hefty rate cut from the Fed and signs of resilience in the U.S. economy, which lifted stocks to three weekly wins in a row. Here's what's happening this week ...

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  • So much for the September slump. Contrary to its reputation as the worst month for stocks, September has seen gains for both the Dow Jones Industrial Average, up 1.7%, and the S&P 500, up 1.5%. According to Dow Jones Market Data, these are set to be the strongest September performances since 2019. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite, with a 2.2% increase, is on track to wrap up its best September since 2013. *

  • The key economic news this week is the Labor Department's jobs report, due Friday. Analysts expect the unemployment rate to remain steady at 4.2%, with an increase of 144,000 in non-farm payrolls. Economists will be paying attention to any revised estimates from last month, as each report includes updated figures, which have often reduced the initially reported job gains. **




  • Fed Chairman Jerome Powell spoke Monday at an economic meeting in Tennessee and reiterated the committee's goal of a soft landing to the economy through further rate cuts. The Fed lowered the federal-funds interest rate by half a percentage point on September 18, to a range of 4.75%--5.0% after holding rates steady since July 2023. While insisting that the Fed is not on any preset course to continue lowering the interest rate, Powell does expect to see two more quarter-point interest-rate cuts this year. Analysts, however, are predicting that at least one of those will be another jumbo cut of at least half a percentage point. ***


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* MarketWatch

** TheStreet

*** Barron's

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