Good morning!

Investors who have been long hoping for a rate cut from the Fed may get an early Christmas on Wednesday when Chairman Jerome Powell is expected to announce the first cut since March 2020. Here's what's happening this week ...

• The long-awaited and recently expected rate cut from the Fed arrives this week, with the announcement expected at the conclusion of the policymaker's September meeting on Wednesday. Analysts are confident of a .25% cut, taking the federal funds rate to 5.25% from the current 5.50%. Optimists are hoping for a half-percentage cut. It's been 54 months since the Fed actually cut rates in March 2020, when the Covid pandemic hit, and the nation's central bank wanted to make sure the U.S. economy didn't completely seize up. As usual, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's press conference following the meeting will provide clues and guidance about how many more rate cuts might be in the forecast for the rest of 2024. *

• Apple stock was falling Monday after analysts said that demand for the company's latest iPhone appears soft. That's based on significantly shorter pre-order delivery times as compared to the previous generation a year earlier. Apple's new iPhone 16 models will feature its own AI integration, dubbed "Apple Intelligence", but the enhanced software will be rolling out in stages and only partially functional on the phones at the outset. On top of that, Apple hasn't worked out its A.I. integration in the lucrative Chinese market, where it faces declining sales due to stiff competition from homegrown phone vendors like Huawei. **

• This morning, the Census Bureau releases the U.S. retail and food-services sales data for August. Analysts expect retail sales to remain unchanged from the previous month, following a robust 1% increase in July. When excluding auto sales, a 0.4% rise is anticipated, consistent with the growth seen in July. On Thursday, expect numbers from the National Association of Realtors to show a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.9 million homes sold, roughly even with July data. Existing home sales are still near their lowest levels since 2009, as potential buyers are priced out of the market due to high mortgage rates. The Fed's expected Wednesday rate cut is seen as helping to spur the market. ***

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