The-Lead-Left-logo-with-PC_Newsletter image

PDF | Research | Week of Jan 6 2025

Quote of the Week

“Markets are firing on all cylinders, and then some.”

– John McAuley, head of debt capital markets, North America, Citigroup. 

Lead Left Vodcast

Private Equity Now: Impact on Fundraising (LP Perspective)

🔔 Subscribe to our YouTube channel: click here

Watch Now
survey2024 image

Q4 2024 Pulse on Private Debt Survey


In September 2024, Churchill surveyed institutional and private wealth investors to explore the growing role of private debt in today’s dynamic investment landscape.

View survey results

High Five – 2025 Outlook (First of a Series)

boliviainteligente-FwPSBBigleM-unsplash-scaled image

A year ago we identified four issues for 2024 that would lay the foundations for a Goldilocks era in private debt and private equity: 


  1. How a recalibrating market will accommodate the new higher normal for interest rates.
  2. Why dispersion between winners and losers looks set to increase.
  3. Why portfolio performance will rely on diversification across high quality issuers, industries, and asset classes, combined with alignment with top private equity owners. 
  4. How private capital providers’ increasingly sophisticated financing tools will meet the market’s complex needs and generate strong risk-adjusted returns for investors.



It turns out all these factors did contribute to a stellar year for top private capital managers and investors...


Read More
SFNetwork image

February 11-12, 2025

Encore at the Wynn in Las Vegas, NV

SFNet’s Asset-Based Capital Conference 2025

The premier event for the middle-market leveraged finance and asset-based finance world

Learn more

Chart of the Week

Grade A Markets

Investment grade corporate bond spreads are near record lows.

CTW-0106 image

Source: Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) – St. Louis Fed, The Daily Shot

(Past performance is no guarantee of future results.)

FR-2 image

January 27, 2025 | 09:30 - 10:30 EST

Credit Outlook 2025 Private Credit

Register Now

Lead with Your Left

30-DAY FREE MEMBERSHIP


Join the leading voice of the middle market. Try us free for 30 days.
Learn More

PDI Picks

Performance driving LP confidence

PDI-0106 image

Investors are by and large happy with what private debt has achieved, even if they do have some reservations. 

In a column before the holidays, we reflected on preliminary findings from our LP Perspectives study showing that 58 percent of investors wanted to invest more in private debt over the next 12 months...

Read More

Contact: Andy Thomson / Private Debt Investor

Leveraged Loan Insight & Analysis

2024 US M&A loan volume up nearly 40% year over year off low 2023 base

LSEG-0106 image

US lenders committed to US$337.5bn in M&A loan volume in 2024, an increase of 40% compared to the 13 year low marked by 2023 totals...

Read More

Contact: Maria Dikeos / LSEG

The Pulse of Private Equity

Global PE deal activity

PB-0106 image

Based on PitchBook's preliminary analysis, 2024 was a rebound for global PE activity...

Read More & Download Report

Contact: Garrett Black / PitchBook

KBRA Direct Lending Deals: News & Analysis

DLD-Logo image

2024 Default Volume, Count

KBRA-0106 image

Contact: Eric Rosenthal / KBRA DLD

Middle Market & Private Credit

Fitchratings-for-newsletters image

North America Private Credit Downgrades to Moderate in 2025

FR-0106 image

Learn More


Join Fitch for the upcoming Outlook panel: Credit Outlook 2025 Private Credit


Rating downgrades and default rates for Fitch’s North America Privately Monitored Ratings (PMR) portfolio could stabilize in 2025...

Read More

Contact: Brad Hamner / FitchRatings

Covenant Trends 

Percentage of Loans that Allow Uncapped Synergies & Cost Savings EBITDA Adjustments, Sponsored vs. Non-Sponsored (LTM)

CR-0106 image
Download Data

Contact: Steven Miller / Covenant Review

High-Yield Bond Statistics

Launched Volume

LFI-0106-1 image

New-issue Yields

LFI-0106-2 image

Weekly Fund Flows

LFI-0106-3 image

Weekly fund flows source: Lipper

Download Data

Contact: Robert Polenberg / LevFin Insights

Debtwire Middle-Market

DW-0106 image

The blue line in the chart is the current dividend yield of the *VanEck BDC Income ETF (currently at 11% as of 6 January) that tracks the overall performance of publicly traded business development companies (BDCs, are lenders to privately held middle-market businesses that tend to be below investment grade or not rated, with most lending comprising of senior secured loans)...

Read More & Download Data

Contact: Suneet Chandvani/ Debtwire 

Private Debt Intelligence

Preqin-vF image

Direct lending the driver of private debt

growth in Europe

PQ-0106 image

Read more in Preqin’s ‘2025 Global Report: Private Debt’.


Since the Global Financial Crisis, direct lending AUM has grown at a faster rate than other private debt strategies in Europe, such that it now comprises more than two-thirds of private debt AUM (67.3%)...

Read More & Download Data

Contact: William Bennett-LynchPreqin

Middle Market Deal Terms at a Glance

SPP-202411 image

Contact: Stefan Shaffer / SPP Capital Partners

Churchill-2020-logo-white-for-event-invite image
STAY CONNECTED
Twitter  Linkedin  Youtube  

This publication is a service to our clients and friends. It is designed only to give general information on the market developments actually covered. It is not intended to be a comprehensive summary of recent developments or to suggest parameters for any prospective financing opportunity.