High-Impact Severe Weather Outbreak (4/2) Followed by Potentially Catastrophic Flooding

Sometimes, I look at the forecast and wish it weren’t true—this is one of those times. Portions of the Bluegrass State are bracing for a major severe weather outbreak today and the potential for historic rainfall over the latter half of the week. I can't stress enough the importance of being prepared and ensuring that you and your loved ones are in the safest position possible. Below, I've summarized everything we know so far. Let me preface this by saying—I’m going to be blunt.

Major Severe Weather Outbreak

Today (4/2) is the start of what will be a very active four-day storm event for Kentucky. Focus during the day will be on high winds. Outside of Southeastern KY, the rest of the state is under a Wind Advisory, with south winds of 20-30 mph and gusts reaching to 55 mph. These winds will push highs into the low to mid-80s and humidity that would be more typical of summer. This is far from normal for early April and sets the stage for a major severe weather outbreak later today.

As highlighted in the Severe Weather Outlook from the Storm Prediction Center, much of Western Kentucky has been upgraded to a 'High' risk for severe weather—level 5 out of 5. This is as bad as it gets and one of those days that has the potential to be remembered for a long time. A major severe weather outbreak is expected, including a chance that someone sees strong to violent tornadoes, some of which could be long track.

When we say “major,” we should also emphasize “rare.” The last time any portion of Kentucky was under a high-risk category was November 17, 2013—and even then, only a sliver of the state was included. Prior to that, it was March 2, 2012, which brought multiple EF3 and EF4 tornadoes across Eastern Kentucky and the Bluegrass. Bottom line, a high risk mean business. These situations don't arise very often and we need to take it seriously.

Breaking Down the Threat

The high-risk designation is mainly for tornadoes—though damaging winds and large hail are also significant concerns. The Storm Prediction Center has even indicated that multiple EF3+ tornadoes appear likely. For context, an EF3 tornado features estimated peak winds between 136 and 165 mph. Stronger tornadoes are not out of the question.

Below are the probabilities for each severe weather threat. Similar to recent rounds of severe storms, there are hatched regions (black dashes), which indicate a 10% or greater chance of significant severe weather. This includes damaging winds exceeding 74 mph, hail larger than 2 inches in diameter, or strong to violent tornadoes. Take note of the particularly high tornadic and damaging wind probabilities for Western Kentucky.

This event is expected to begin in earnest later this evening across Western Kentucky, advancing eastward overnight. The National Weather Service in Louisville has provided a helpful graphic summarizing the timeline for Kentucky (image below). Remember that these times are subject to change, so stay vigilant and don’t let your guard down. While the focus in on Western KY, don't underestimate the threat in Central and Eastern KY. Cities like Louisville are under an 'Moderate' risk and Bowling Green is right on the edge.

If you live in Western Kentucky or know anyone in the area, please take a moment to ensure they are aware of this unfolding situation. Tonight’s severe weather has the potential to be extremely dangerous, and I can't stress enough the importance of being prepared.

Looking ahead, the severe weather threat will remain with us over the next four days. While confidence in the specifics is still fairly low, it’s crucial to stay alert and monitor the forecast as updates become available. What we do know is that historic rainfall is in play, and its potential impact cannot be overstated (details on this are provided below).

For the most accurate and up-to-date information, please refer to the briefings from each National Weather Service office across the state. These will be continuously updated in the coming days to ensure you have access to the latest guidance.

Western KY - NWS Paducah, KY

Central KY - NWS Louisville, KY

Eastern KY - NWS Jackson, KY

Stay Alert and Prepared:

• Multiple Warning Methods: Ensure you have multiple ways to receive weather warnings tonight and tomorrow. Given that this is an overnight event, it's crucial to stay informed.

• NOAA Weather Radio: If you haven't already, consider purchasing a NOAA Weather Radio today. These devices are designed to wake you up in the middle of the night and have been proven to save lives.

• Kentucky Weather Alert App: This ad-free app from the UK Ag Weather Center is an excellent resource for staying safe and informed. It provides daily and hourly forecasts, high-resolution radar, National Weather Service alerts sent directly to your phone, and a link to this update. Without any distracting ads, this app can act as another reliable warning source during tonight’s severe weather. Be sure to check it out by scanning or clicking the QR codes below to download the app on both iOS and Google Play platforms.

Shelter Locations:

• Residential Safety: Refer to the image below for the best locations to shelter at your home. You're trying to put the most walls between you and the outdoor environment.

• Avoid Mobile Homes: DO NOT stay in a mobile home. Find a sturdier location. Make plans now to locate an alternative shelter that is close by and accessible within 5 minutes in case a warning is issued by the National Weather Service.

Understanding Watches and Warnings:

• Watch: Indicates that conditions are favorable for severe weather. This means the ingredients for severe weather are present.



• Warning: Issued when severe weather is imminent or occurring. Take immediate action and find shelter right away

Catastrophic Flooding potential

Including today's severe weather, multiple rounds of heavy rainfall are anticipated between Wednesday and Saturday as a frontal boundary stalls over the region. Coupled with an exceptional influx of moisture into the area, this is setting the stage for a historic amount of rainfall. How much? The forecast totals from the National Weather Service (image below) are staggering—and yes, you’re reading that right. Some areas in Western Kentucky could receive over a foot of rainfall, which accounts for more than 20% of the annual average for this region. Totals decrease further east, but even 6-8 inches in Lexington or 3-4 inches in Jackson will cause issues.

In many areas, infrastructure simply will not be able to manage this volume of water. This will lead to extensive flooding, and places that have never experienced flooding may find themselves underwater during this event. The models are in strong agreement, emphasizing the seriousness of the situation.

Flooding of various types—flash, areal, and river—is likely during this event. Heavy rainfall will lead to rapid onset flooding, particularly across Western and Central Kentucky. As these rainfall totals accumulate, river flooding will also become a significant concern.

Below is a graphic from the Ohio River Forecast Center detailing the 10-Day Potential River Levels. Across Kentucky, many rivers are expected to reach moderate and even major flood stages. If you have sensitive property in low-lying areas, now is the time to move it. This advice extends to livestock producers across the state: relocate animals to higher ground and ensure all are properly identified.

When all factors are combined, this event has the potential to become life-threatening. NEVER attempt to cross flooded roads. Many times, it’s impossible to assess the structural integrity of the road beneath—and it may not even be there. As little as 12 inches of water can sweep a car off the road.

To close, please stay safe. This is a rare and dangerous situation unfolding, whether it’s the high risk in place today or the historic flooding ahead. Take every precaution to ensure that you and your family are in the safest possible position.