Houston Population Inches Up

According to the just-released U.S. Census Bureau estimates, the City of Houston’s population increased by 11,500 last year (+.5%). That compares with an increase of 43,000 in the prior year.

In its most recent estimate, the Census Bureau reports that the City lost population during 2020 and 2021, when the pandemic was still raging, but experienced a spurt of growth in 2022-2024.  That appears to have resulted from the surge in post-pandemic international immigration.  Based on the Bureau’s most recent estimates, Houston’s population grew by about 110,000 in the last ten years (+5%). About 90% of that occurred during the 2022-2024 spike in international immigration.

Zooming out to a longer view, Houston has grown by almost half a million people since 2000. But most of that growth occurred before 2017. From 2017 until 2021, the City actually lost population. It was not until the surge in international immigration in 2022-2024 that the City began to grow again.

Unfortunately, the Census Bureau does not break down the components of its population estimates for cities. So, we have no official estimate of births, deaths, and domestic and international immigration. However, we have some indications from the Census Bureau’s estimates of these components for Harris County.

Over the last decade, Harris County’s growth has almost exclusively come from international immigration. It has suffered a massive negative domestic outmigration of about 300,000 residents. That has been approximately offset by natural growth (births-deaths). So, without international immigration, the County today would be roughly the same size it was ten years ago. While we do not know how much of the County’s international immigration and domestic outmigration has occurred within the City, my guess is that it accounts for a significant majority of both. Certainly, HISD's school enrollment, compared with that of surrounding suburban districts, would suggest this is the case.

It is important to keep in mind that the estimate for the City, as with all Census Bureau estimates, is as of the prior July, in this case July 1, 2025. So, that would have covered about seven months of the Biden administration and five months of the Trump administration. Therefore, it is highly likely that international immigration in this estimate mostly occurred in the first part of the year. As a result, the estimates for next year will likely show very little, if any, international immigration. 

Some are predicting that international immigration for next year will be negative. That is possible, however, as I have mentioned before, we are not finding much evidence of a mass exodus of immigrants – voluntary or involuntary. There is some softness in the Class C and D apartment market in Houston, and some bus routes that are primarily frequented by immigrants have flatlined. So long as the Trump administration continues its policy of stricter immigration enforcement, those numbers will probably continue to deteriorate. But, at least so far, we do not see any of the numbers falling off a cliff.

All of this suggests that the days of Houston growing significantly through natural increase or domestic immigration are over. In fact, that likely ended nearly a decade ago.  Its future growth will very likely depend, almost entirely, on federal immigration policy.

There are those who believe that post-Trump, international immigration will resume. It is hard to imagine that it would not resume to some extent. Recent Gallup polling shows that a record 79% of Americans see immigration as a benefit to the country. However, the same poll shows that 68% of Americans either want the number of immigrants admitted to the country to be reduced (30%) or kept at the same level (38%). So, in a few years, Houston might see something more like “normal” international immigration. But it is unlikely to be at a level that will do much more than offset the natural decline and domestic outmigration.