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Welcome to the Newsletter of the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung's Regional Center on Peace and Security

According to the 2026 edition of the AMLAT Radar survey, Latin American societies are closely monitoring the international scene. The region perceives a more unstable global order: conflicts are on the rise and rules are weakening, while multilateral consensus is being eroded and approaches based on force, threats, and securitization are gaining ground. At the same time, there is a growing sense that international norms and law have lost their weight, authority, and capacity to structure relations among states. This awareness of risk is generating a wide range of responses.  

The AMLAT Radar report elaborates on the survey results, which can be viewed in detail here. Two of its authors, Mónica Hirst and Juan Gabriel Tokatlian, analyze these results in depth in this video.

U.S. policies have tensed the strategic insertion of Latin America and the Caribbean into a ruptured international order. A lack of intraregional coordination and the support of several governments—including Argentina, Ecuador, Bolivia, and El Salvador—have facilitated these developments. For the current U.S. administration, the region holds strategic importance.

The “Trump Corollary” in the U.S. security strategy introduces a renewed focus on Latin America, with a twofold objective, according to this Chatham House analysis: to prevent migration and impose U.S. domination in the “Western Hemisphere.” However, it is a disorganized plan, and Latin American leaders will continue to develop ties with China, the region’s leading trading partner.

Joseph Humire, acting assistant secretary of war for homeland defense and Americas security affairs in the Trump administration, has eloquently testified to this priority regarding Latin America before members of the House Armed Services Committee. In his words, U.S. wars in the region are expanding, and attacks against Latin American drug cartels are “just the beginning” of a long-term confrontation. 

In this context, Washington has taken the controversial step of designating Brazil’s largest criminal organizations as foreign terrorist organizations. This will also have implications for the country’s financial sector and economy, as well as for the application of international law and the so-called Law of War. The U.S. list already includes 15 organizations from Mexico, Ecuador, Haiti, Colombia, Venezuela, and Central America, as shown on this map.

Two senior Brazilian government officials outline Brazil’s strategic perspective in this context. For President Lula’s foreign policy advisor, Celso Amorim, defending Brazil’s sovereignty requires not only dialogue but also a deterrent capability. Minister of Finance Darío Durigan notes that Lula is convinced his country is devising a model to remain sovereign in “the era of predators,” borrowing the title of political scientist Giuliano da Empoli’s book.

In this volume, professors Bernabé Malacalza and Juan Gabriel Tokatlian examine Javier Milei’s politics as straddling “dogma and excess,” within the context of the far right’s advance against multilateralism in Latin America. Malacalza also presents ten uncomfortable theses on why polarity does not explain the world.

Cuba is at a critical juncture. The combination of economic decline, social unrest, intensifying U.S. pressure, and growing international scrutiny is creating a climate of extreme uncertainty. The publication Americas Quarterly outlines four possible near-term scenarios. Meanwhile, The Dialogue explores what reforms the Cuban government might adopt and whether these will be sufficient to rein in Trump.

UN humanitarian agencies are facing a particularly complex situation due to a lack of electricity, fuel for transportation and mobility of people and goods, and a shortage of medicines, among other factors. The UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, Volker Türk, blamed the U.S. for the humanitarian crisis caused by the shortage of basic goods on the island, which he described as a “perfect storm.”

As suggested by the latest polls leading up to the second round of Colombia's presidential election, Abelardo de la Espriella, the candidate for the Salvación Nacional party, emerged victorious. Although the traditional right, represented by the Centro Democrático, has been sidelined, it has already been announced that it will join the governing coalition.

As indicated by the latest polls ahead of the second round of Colombia’s presidential election, Abelardo de la Espriella, the National Salvation Party candidate, emerged victorious. Although the traditional right, represented by the Democratic Center, has been sidelined, it has already been announced that it will form part of the governing coalition.

With a platform that draws heavily on the policies of Presidents Donald Trump, Javier Milei, and Nayib Bukele in the United States, Argentina, and El Salvador, respectively, the La Espriella administration joins the wave of far-right governments in the region. These assessments by Catalina Niño Guarnizo and Mariano Aguirre Ernst examine the reasons behind this rise, its links to the regional trend, the obstacles he will face in governing, and the potential for resistance from civil society.

Similarly, the New York Times (in both its English and Spanish editions) states that, with the victory of the far-right candidate, Trump has achieved his main ‘reward’ for his policies of supporting like-minded candidates in Latin America. And the publication China en las Américas considers that the United States has also secured a victory in its confrontation with China in the region.

The elections sparked numerous reflections, among which stands out that of Hernando Gómez Buendía, editor-in-chief of the publication Razón Pública, on the new identity of the Colombian right.

The US government’s interference in the 2026 Colombian elections stems from the expectation that a new government will re-establish the close strategic alliance that existed prior to Petro’s arrival. According to Gimena Sánchez, from WOLA, this approach aims to strengthen the network of conservative governments in the region that share common political and security priorities. In this regard, it is worth examining the security proposals put forward by the presidential candidates.

Meanwhile, several Democratic members of the US Congress have urged Secretary of State Marco Rubio to stop interfering in Colombia's electoral process by backing far-right candidate Abelardo de la Espriella, who President Donald Trump and Republican members of Congress back.

In a CIDOB publication, analyst Rafael Grasa also examines the rise of anti-politics in Colombia.

Colombian Peace Commissioner Otty Patiño states that there have been ten rounds of negotiations within the framework of the ‘total peace’ process, although the outcome has been negotiations with increasingly fragmented criminal structures. Achieving peace today requires overcoming violence fuelled by illegal economies and the actors who depend on them. Gustavo Petro’s government also sought to influence the international agenda by choosing the Middle East as the thematic axis of his presidency of the UN Security Council in June.

The book ¿Quién manda en Colombia?, by Jenny Pearce and Juan David Velasco, looks into the 119 families that comprise Colombia's elite: clusters that compete, break apart and vie for power, yet manage to reach agreements when they perceive threats to the existing order. Governing the Excluded: Rural Livelihoods Beyond Coca in Colombia’s Peace Laboratory analyzes key factors in the success or failure of peace processes, including the reasons that lead people to engage in illicit economies or join armed groups, and the mechanisms by which the state establishes authority.

Elections have once again been held in Peru, generating deep uncertainty amidst chronic instability. The right-wing candidate, Keiko Fujimori, has emerged victorious.

In this interview with the Instituto de Democracia y Derechos Humanos (Peru), US political scientist Steven Levitsky—a leading scholar on the crisis of democracy in the United States and an expert on Latin American electoral processes—analyzes the landscape following the second round of elections.

He argues that Fujimorism is transforming into a consolidated right-wing force, that anti-Fujimorism is gradually weakening, and he highlights the challenges a potential democratic opposition would face. For Levitsky, the main problem is not who wins the election, but rather the new government’s potential ability to concentrate power in a context of fragile institutions and weakened parties.

Further, the analysis by Peruvian Army Colonel Abraham Lescano Salazar, published in Overwatch (Miami), focuses on (1) the structural fragmentation of the party system and its impact on governance; (2) the territorial and socioeconomic polarization that divides the country into two distinct political spheres; and (3) the presence of external and illegal factors (drug trafficking, organized crime, transnational influences) that interfere with the democratic process.

The elections and the controversies surrounding the Chancay port demonstrate how domestic instability, the rivalry between the United States and China, and political polarization are reshaping the country’s future within a broader geopolitical struggle.

In this interview, political scientist Alberto Vergara analyzes the complex reality of his country. He argues that Peruvian democracy has oscillated between the irrelevance of election results and the dangerous cost of losing them, ultimately delegitimizing the political system.

Six months after the intervention of U.S. troops in Venezuela, and with the government under the control of acting President Delcy Rodríguez, the country once again finds itself suspended in uncertainty. Marked by oil wealth, but also by poverty and corruption, Venezuela appears trapped between abundance and collapse. A recent book by Professor Nancy Ferreira Gómez portrays the paradox of a country that seems to be perpetually waiting for the future.

Meanwhile, a Chatham House report, prepared by a group of Venezuelan experts from various fields, examines the conditions necessary to achieve a stable democracy and economic growth following U.S. intervention.

In Chile, nearly 100 people participated in the “Security Challenges” Winter School, an initiative designed to strengthen critical analysis skills regarding public security and preventive citizen security, as well as to provide tools for understanding the country’s security agenda.

In Nicaragua, the April 2018 civic uprising revealed a youth committed to democracy, justice, and human rights. Young women played a central role, and their activism continues. The Centro de Estudios Transdisciplinarios de Centroamérica (CETCAM) is studying the ongoing struggles and their expectations for the country's future.

An online seminar organized by the Global Initiative against Transnational Organized Crime (GI-TOC) analyzed how a gender perspective is essential to understanding the functioning of illicit economies and organized crime. Colombia and Central America offer clear examples of the diversity of roles women play and the difficulty in obtaining accurate data.

Media coverage of the operation that killed El Mencho, leader of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel, highlighted this analytical shortfall. The dominant narrative equates power with violence but overlooks the fact that the longevity of these organizations depends on governance: management, financial oversight, logistical coordination, and embedded social networks —functions that are often feminized. Rosalinda González Valencia, the leader’s wife, is a prime example.

The latest issue of the journal Afers Internacionals, published by CIDOB (Barcelona Centre on International Affairs), is dedicated to global backlash against women’s rights and their progress, with several articles focusing on Latin America. The rollback of women’s rights is seen as a process of normative challenge to the liberal international order. This regression is driven by a transnational culture war spearheaded by a conservative patriarchal network that unites the Western radical right with autocratic powers and sectors of the Global South.

The international system is witnessing a steady increase in armed conflicts. According to Alert 2026! Report on conflicts, human rights and peacebuilding there were 40 active armed conflicts in 2025. For its part, the Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO) states that 2025 was an extremely violent year, reporting 65 active conflicts across 35 countries —the highest number recorded since 1946.

The 2026 Global Peace Index confirms this deterioration and points to three structural factors: the redistribution of global power, the transnational spread of conflict through refugees, weapons, finance, and ideologies, and the rapid proliferation of autonomous weapons and AI-enabled systems.

Armed forces are exploring increasingly advanced artificial intelligence capabilities for military use. Among these, artificial intelligence decision-making support systems (AI-DSS) can significantly influence decisions regarding the use of force, raising concerns about compliance with international humanitarian law and the protection of civilians.

In June 2025, the UN Secretary-General published a report on AI in the military domain. In December, the UN General Assembly adopted Resolution [DD1] A/RES/80/58, which mandates consultations to promote an international dialogue on military AI governance and related normative frameworks. The International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) is simultaneously hosting consultations on its preliminary recommendations in this area. 

The International Catalan Institute for Peace (ICIP) has organized a webinar series on the need to rethink European security amid growing militarization. The five lectures—available here— examine the challenges to European security in the face of rising military spending, the war in Ukraine, and the genocide in Gaza.

The latest issue of Ecología Política analyzes how armies and the arms industry cause ecological destruction, reinforce extractivist dynamics, and deepen inequalities, while their climate impacts remain largely invisible.

FLACSO Ecuador and other academic institutions from Colombia and Brazil addressed the need to decolonize peace and conflict studies during this online meeting.

In a context of conflict and uncertainty, it is a priority to reposition diplomacy for peace as the only force capable of navigating an era of radical uncertainty. Achim Wennmann, of the Graduate Institute in Geneva, calls for expanded investment— both from state and non-state sources —in peace initiatives and a global movement for peace-building diplomacy.

Researcher Vicenç Fisas examines sixty wars and identifies patterns and characteristics that increase the likelihood of reaching agreements. A well-designed negotiation can be decisive in ending an armed conflict, but it requires meticulous planning and an approach focused on root causes.

The book Los internacionalistas, by Oona A. Hathaway and Scott J. Shapiro, explains how the 1928 Briand-Kellogg Pact transformed international law by outlawing war. It is volume 21 of the Berg Institute’s Biblioteca de Literatura y Derechos Humanos. In this same field, the Globernance Institute and the San Telmo Forum (Basque Country, Spain) organized a debate with Professor Joana Abrisketa and Mariano Aguirre Ernst on the challenges facing international law and the critiques coming from the Global South.

The Inter-American Commission on Human Rights has adopted a new resolution on economic and fiscal policies to ensure the protection of human rights. This represents a significant step forward in consolidating regional norms on fiscal policy, recognizing public finance as part of states’ human rights obligations.

The concept of environmental justice is gaining traction in academic debates and in social demands for more effective environmental and climate governance. However, it remains a diverse and contested field. This article from Foro Internacional summarizes the characteristics of contemporary debates on environmental justice from a political theory perspective.

María Belén Garrido, director of the Regional Institute on the Study and Practice of Strategic Nonviolent Action in the Americas, participated in the webinar Mobilizing Nonviolent Social Change: Lessons from Latin America. Her presentation examined nonviolent social movements in Latin America and the role of indigenous movements in Ecuador in processes of political and social transformation.

The Institute has published two video podcasts on nonviolent action to transform conflicts and resist oppression, as well as a podcast on the nonviolent contributions of faith communities in Latin America. They also run a blog in English and Spanish.

• The conference “VIII EBEP: 10 anos construindo um mundo melhor”, to mark the 10th anniversary of the Encontro Brasileiro de Estudos para a Paz (EBEP), will take place at the Universidade Federal do Tocantins (UFT) in Palmas, Tocantins, on October 28–30, 2026.
• The Argentine non-governmental organization CELS is publishing the Litio y Derechos Humanos Bulletin, available at https://litioyddhh.observatorio.cl/todos-los-boletines/. It is an important resource on one of the minerals most coveted by large technology companies, and on Latin America’s role in the development of AI and robotization.
• Meanwhile, researcher Lucía Pradel analyzes the role and contribution that Latin America can make to the debate on AI.

Newsletter of the Regional Center on Peace and Security

Edited by Mariano Aguirre Ernst and Mabel González Bustelo

Translated by Yenni Castro (Valestra Editorial)

More information: Catalina Niño (Catalina.Nino@fes.de)

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