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December 24, 2023
Key Takeaways from a newsletter that could have been twice as long (I'll write about the generational divide on Israel-Gaza next week):
- The death toll in Gaza is horrifying not because Israel is bombing indiscriminately but because Hamas embeds itself in densely populated areas, including schools and hospitals. No country would tolerate cross-border terrorist attacks and constant rocket fire.
- Calls for an immediate ceasefire are understandable but would leave Hamas in place, leave the hostages in captivity, and set the stage for another round of terrorist attacks against Israel.
- A two-state solution is more important now than ever, but positions are hardening on both sides. Neither Israel nor the Palestinian Authority has leadership willing or able to move toward a two-state solution and both populations are skeptical of a two-state solution (pushing a two-state solution further from reach was one goal of Hamas's attack). But lasting peace and Israel's future as a Jewish, democratic state depends on progress toward a two-state solution.
- Israel is not a settler colonialist state, although Zionism superficially resembles settler colonialism in some respects. But Israel's policies in Gaza (not this war, but generally) and the West Bank fit the settler colonial paradigm. Settler violence and settlements themselves are not the root cause of the conflict but they are an obstacle to resolving the conflict. Settler violence must end and settlement expansion must be reversed to ensure Israel's safety, security, and prospects for a two-state solution.
Read to the end for corrections, what you may have missed last week, fun stuff, and our December 28 event with MD-06 congressional candidate Joel Rubin.
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Hi Steve,
It’s been 78 days since Hamas savagely murdered, raped, and tortured 1,200 people, including babies, children, and the elderly. Over 3,000 people were wounded. More Jews were murdered on October 7 than on any day since the Holocaust. Hamas took 240 hostages, denied them medical treatment, and badly mistreated and in some cases tortured them, including pinning a boiling piece of metal to the legs of children, drugging children, and forcing children at gunpoint to watch videos of Hamas's October 7 atrocities. These threads from Alex Plitsas and Tamara Zieve about the videos are hard but vital reading.
Thanks to President Biden’s diplomatic efforts and Israel’s military pressure, dozens of hostages are now free, but Hamas still holds roughly 129 men, women, and children hostage, dead and alive. We cannot forget them. We must bring them home. For those alive, every minute matters. Hamas’s sexual violence is well-documented. We can only imagine what these hostages are enduring day after day.
Nadav Ayal outlines Israel's plans for the war's next phase.
The death toll in Gaza is horrifying. No one with a heart can deny it. According to the Hamas-controlled health ministry, at least 20,000 Palestinians have been killed, including an unspecified number of Hamas terrorists but also innocent civilians who did not heed warnings to evacuate, either because Hamas prevented them from leaving or of their own volition. At least 137 Israeli soldiers have been killed in action.
Polls showing strong Palestinian support for Hamas and its actions on October 7 are alarming but no one deserves to die for thinking something. It is reasonable to ask how many Palestinian deaths are acceptable in Israel’s war to incapacitate Hamas. Would Israel be justified in killing 2 million Palestinians? Most of us would say no. 1,999,999? Again, no. Three by accident? Most of us would say yes. The line is hard to draw because even in just wars, while the goal must be zero civilian deaths, innocent people die.
What should Israel do instead? Do you think that if it was possible to send elite commandos to kill or capture Hamas leadership without harming a hair on anyone else’s head, Israel would not do this? How are surgical strikes possible when Hamas embeds itself in densely populated civilian areas, including schools and hospitals, and does not allow civilians to leave?
Should Hamas terrorists be free to repeatedly attack Israel if they hide themselves behind human shields? Should Israel, alone among the nations, resign itself to daily rocket barrages and occasional cross-border attacks where its citizens are murdered, raped, and kidnapped? Should Israel prioritize the lives of innocent Gazans over the lives of its own citizens? Would you expect the U.S. to do the same if American lives were in danger from terrorists like Hamas across its border?
How would we react to a surprise attack that killed thousands of our citizens? We know how. We saw the answers after Pearl Harbor and 9/11. The difference is that Japan and Al Qaeda were based thousands of miles away. Hamas is thousands of miles from us, but right across the border from Israel. Japan and Al Qaeda did not bomb the U.S. day after day following Pearl Harbor and 9/11. Hamas has fired nearly 10,000 rockets into Israel since October 7. That doesn't mean that we were right. But it does mean that we are asking Israel more than we expected of ourselves to the extent we ask Israel to show restraint. Empathizing with the Palestinians should not prevent us from empathizing with Israelis.
The lessons we learned in Iraq and Afghanistan might be helpful to Israel but we should recognize that Israel knows Gaza much better than we knew those countries, and Israel knows Hamas much better than we knew Al Qaeda (how many of us heard of Al Qaeda prior to 9/11?). Hamas remains a greater threat to Israel after October 7 than Japan and Al Qaeda were to us after Pearl Harbor and 9/11.
Before you decide you want a ceasefire, ask yourself what you mean by "ceasefire." In his article on Gaza and the asymmetry trap, Michael Walzer wrote that "the toll of death and injury is horrifying, and the normal human response to such suffering is a cry for it all to end: stop the fighting!—which is, again, the response Hamas’s strategy [of embedding itself in civilian infrastructure] is meant to produce."
The Biden administration said on December 19 that “we don’t support a permanent ceasefire at this time. It would simply validate what Hamas did on the 7th of October. It would leave them in power in Gaza, which is unacceptable to us and to our Israeli friends. And, of course, it would give them a much longer timeline to prepare and plan additional attacks.”
Many calls for ceasefires from members of Congress are aspirational, not unconditional. They often include calls for Hamas to return all hostages and an end to rocket attacks against Israel. Not unreasonable, but does anyone think Hamas would agree even if Israel would? The only permanent ceasefire deals that one side would agree to are permanent ceasefire deals that the other side would not agree to.
I would love Israel to agree to Tom Friedman's proposal for "total Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, in return for all the Israeli hostages and a permanent cease-fire under international supervision, including U.S., NATO and Arab observers. And no exchange of Palestinians in Israeli jails." Why not throw in a unicorn and a scoop of ice cream for everyone? Friedman doesn't explain what he proposes if Hamas rejects the deal other than to tell the world that now it's all Hamas's fault.
Hamas rejected Israel’s offer for a seven-day truce in Gaza in exchange for the release of 40 hostages last week. On October 7, Hamas broke the ceasefire that was in place on October 6.
David Schraub writes that "returning to a state of 'ceasefire,' where that means Hamas can just continue to launch renewed October 7-style attacks (as they have expressly promised to keep on doing) and Israel just has to accept it, is clearly a non-starter and makes a mockery of the term 'ceasefire.' But if we say 'well, if the ceasefire is broken, then military hostilities can resume,' then we're right back to where we are today -- with no ceasefire. We are living through right now 'if the ceasefire is broken, then military hostilities can resume'."
Schraub's post is depressing but essential reading for anyone who supports an immediate ceasefire. If you can solve the dilemma for which he admits he has no solution, let me know.
Egypt refused Palestinians in Gaza temporary refuge in Egypt. And no one is demanding that Qatar and Iran stop financing Hamas or that Qatar and Turkey stop providing safe havens for Hamas leadership. International organizations are not demanding that Hamas immediately release the hostages. Watch this 60-second clip from Secretary of State Antony Blinken asking why demands are made of the victim but not the aggressor.
This does not mean unconditional support for Benjamin Netanyahu or Israel’s current government, both of which are abominations. But a country does not lose its right to defend itself (let alone its right to exist) and its people do not lose their right to live in safety and security because its government is contemptible–if it did, woe to the country governed by Donald Trump and his band of miscreants for four years.
President Biden, Secretary of State Blinken, and Vice President Harris have been clear about what must happen after this war ends: “The United States believes key elements should include no forcible displacement of Palestinians from Gaza – not now, not after the war. No use of Gaza as a platform for terrorism or other violent attacks. No reoccupation of Gaza after the conflict ends. No attempt to blockade or besiege Gaza. No reduction in the territory of Gaza. We must also ensure no terrorist threats can emanate from the West Bank.”
To the extent anyone in Israel's government has said anything to the contrary, the U.S. should ensure that nothing to the contrary happens.
A two-state solution is more important than ever. Israel's current government opposes a two-state solution. The Palestinian Authority's current government either opposes or is incapable of agreeing to a two-state solution. Hamas opposes Israel's existence. A democratic one-state solution, even if achievable in theory, is a non-starter for Israel, whose raison d’etre is a sovereign Jewish state. But a democratic Jewish state is only possible with a large Jewish majority, which is only possible under a two-state solution.
Jews and Palestinians have historic and legal claims to all the land between the river and the sea, and that’s what fanatics on both sides want. Jews celebrate Zionism as the realization of their national dreams and their liberation movement. Palestinians see Zionism and the modern State of Israel as the end of their national aspirations (whether they are right or wrong to think so, they are not antisemitic to think so).
Millions of Jews and millions of Palestinians are not going anywhere. Both peoples have legitimate national aspirations. Both peoples have legitimate grievances against each other. All countries arise from violence and inequity, including Israel. All countries nevertheless have a right to exist, including Israel. The world order would collapse if we perpetually attempted to solve injustices (which themselves resulted in justice for others) by turning back the clock instead of working toward a better future for everyone–which means no one gets everything they want.
Israel is not a settler colonialist state. Jewish nationalism is hard for some to understand because it is unique and because Judaism is both a nationality and a religion. As Sam Fleischacker points out, Zionism resembles settler colonialism in some respects and differs sharply from it in others, but the differences are such that Zionism does not fit the rubric of settler colonialism. However, according to Fleischacker, “Israel’s policies in Gaza and the West Bank fit the settler colonial paradigm perfectly.” Read his article if this is not clear to you. Another reason for two states.
Settler violence is a problem for which we–and the government that Israel needs–should have zero tolerance. But the problem is more than settler violence. It’s the settlements. They are not the root cause of the conflict, but they are an obstacle to the conflict’s end. Settlement expansion must stop, settler outposts must be dismantled, and plans must be made to dismantle all settlements except the blocs that nearly everyone agrees would become part of Israel under a two-state solution (in exchange for land swaps from within pre-1967 Israel).
Neither side has to give up its narrative or accept the other side's narrative, but both sides must realize that the only path forward, a two-state solution, requires both sides to give up sovereignty over land that they believe should be theirs and both sides to accept that the other side's previous sins may never be fully redressed. The international community, led by the U.S., must work to bring both sides together to make a two-state solution a reality. We in the pro-Israel community must make this our top priority, and that means directing our pro-Israel giving and support toward organizations here and in Israel that support political parties who understand that a Greater Israel from the river to the sea is antithetical to a safe and secure Jewish State of Israel.
Corrections. I'm entitled to my own opinions but not to my own facts, so I appreciate it when readers bring errors to my attention. No one brought any mistakes to my attention last week, so it looks like last week's newsletter was perfect.
In Case You Missed It:
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Steve Sheffey: For the IHRA definition, context is everything. That's why it cannot stand on its own as a tool to fight antisemitism.
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Aaron David Miller and Daniel C. Kurtzer: In dealing with the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, America has no easy way out. But the risk of not taking bold action to achieve the two-state solution that neither side's leaders are ready for is greater than the risk of maintaining the status quo or moving slowly.
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Letter from Jewish leaders thanking President Biden for the historic backing he has provided Israel since the horrific Hamas massacre of Israelis on October 7.
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Edwin Eisendrath: MAGA wants to ignore the parts of the constitution it finds inconvenient. We can't let that happen.
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Dahlia Scheindlin: Hamas, Hasbara and the Holocaust: What Left and Right get wrong about the Israel-Gaza war, and why.
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Rabbi Jill Jacobs: The pro-Israel case for a negotiated end to the war in Gaza. Worth reading even if I've convinced you to disagree with her conclusion.
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Chuck Frank on why he is resigning his lifetime membership in the Sierra Club
Tweets of the Week. helen qu'elle heure, Fania Oz-Salzberger, and Lis Smith (on the GOP candidate running to replace George Santos).
Twitter Threads of the Week. Mark Jacob with 130 factual reasons why decent people must vote against Donald Trump, Matthew Yglesias, and Richard Goldwasser.
Video Clips of the Week. Happy 80th to Keith Richards, and speaking of aging rock stars who still have it, Rod Stewart put on a Christmas show in St. Pancras station last week.
Upcoming Event. Read about my friend Joel Rubin, watch him in action, and join Politics with Dana and Steve for an event with Jill Zipin, Ari Aramesh, Chanan Weissman, Jennifer Horn, Carl Meacham, Richard Ponzio, Robin Leeds, Bruce Wollman, Derek Johnson, and David Kahana from 6:00 pm - 8:00 pm ET this Thursday, December 28 to meet Joel Rubin, candidate for Congress in MD-06, the seat being vacated by Democratic Rep. David Trone. The event is at a super-cool place in DC (location provided to those who RSVP) and Zoom. RSVP here.
For those new to this newsletter. This is the newsletter even Republicans have to read and the original home of the viral and beloved 2022 and 2023 Top Ten Signs You're At a Republican Seder. If someone forwarded this to you, why not subscribe and get it in your inbox every Sunday? Just click here--it's free.
I periodically update my Medium posts on why Democrats are better than Republicans on Israel and antisemitism and on why the Antisemitism Awareness Act and the IHRA definition are the wrong solutions to real problems. You can read my most recent effort to define "pro-Israel" here (it's a work in progress, as am I).
I hope you enjoyed today's newsletter. Donations are welcome (this takes time to write and costs money to send). If you'd like to chip in, click here and fill in the amount of your choice. If you see something that says "Save your info and create a PayPal account," click the button to the right and it will go away. You don't need a PayPal account. Or you can Venmo @Steven-Sheffey (last four phone digits are 9479). You can send a check too. But no crypto or gold bars.
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