Policy Uncertainty a Rising Risk Factor

Dr. Robert Dietz

NAHB Chief Economist

The Trump 2.0 administration is undertaking a dramatic set of economic policy changes. In just a few weeks, the president has proposed and/or enacted an aggressive slimming of government staffing, increased tariffs and trade barriers, supported the extension of existing tax cuts, proposed a broad deregulation effort, reversed immigration policy, and outlined a reworking of U.S. foreign policy that is more independent from the long-standing post-World War II system.

Estimating the net positive/negative effects of this evolving new set of economic rules is challenging. Although reduced regulatory costs and an extension of the 2017 tax reform are positive developments for home builders..

How Tariffs Impact the Homebuilding Industry

National Association of Home Builders

Scarcity and an acute, sustained rise in building material costs — from softwood lumber to distribution transformers — are driving up the cost to construct homes and harming housing affordability. There are several factors driving this trend, notably inflationary pressures and global factors, including trade uncertainty.

NAHB estimates that $204 billion worth of goods were used in the construction of both new multifamily and single-family housing in 2024..