How Wildfires Threaten California's Affordable Housing

In early January, multiple wildfires erupted across Los Angeles County causing devastating losses. More than 50,000 acres of land have burned, thousands of homes and businesses have been damaged or completely destroyed, and at least 29 people have lost their lives to these fires, with more than 180,000 people forced to evacuate.[1,2] As communities continue on the long path towards recovery from the nearly month-long fight against these wildfires, these impacts underscore the effects that a changing climate has on our housing crisis, particularly for low-income residents who are among the most vulnerable in weather disasters.

Even before the fires reduced Los Angeles County's housing supply, low-income households already faced an extremely strained housing market with a statewide shortfall of nearly 1.3 million affordable homes.[3] Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and severity of disasters, putting more low-income households at risk of housing instability and displacement.[4,5]

The California Housing Partnership’s state-mandated mission and “do-and-think-tank” approach include providing information to policymakers, advocates and the public on the latest opportunities and threats to our state’s supply of affordable housing. To help identify existing affordable housing that may be in danger of environmental hazards, my colleagues and I on the Partnership’s research team recently added four new layers—wildfire, heat wave, earthquake, and flood hazards—to the Affordable Housing Map and Benefits Calculator (“the Map”). This interactive tool not only maps all of California’s affordable multifamily rental housing but also provides estimates for several key economic, social, and environmental benefits that affordable housing provides to both residents and the community at large, including health care savings, lifetime earning increases for children, and greenhouse gas emission reductions from living near transit hubs. The addition of four new environmental hazard maps allows users to explore existing, future, and hypothetical affordable housing properties that may be in danger of each given environmental disaster and can aid in the proactive efforts to create more climate resilient housing across the state, such as retrofitting and decarbonizing the existing affordable housing stock to make it more comfortable, resilient, and safer for residents.

Using the Map reveals that of California’s nearly 520,000 afforable multifamily rental homes subsidized by the state or federal government, 4% are in an area with substantial wildfire hazard potential. These homes are located in areas classified as Fire Hazard Severity Zones (FHSZs) by CalFIRE, which are areas at heightened threat of fires due to conditions like the vegetation, weather, and terrain.

Of the 18,630 affordable rental homes in FHSZs:

*80% of these homes are in Very High FHSZs in either Local or State Responsibility Areas (13,641 and 1,262 homes, respectively), 5% are in High FHSZs in State Responsibility Areas (1,003 homes), and 15% are in Moderate FHSZs in State Responsibility Areas (2,724 homes).

*52% of these homes are concentrated in three counties—Los Angeles, San Diego, and El Dorado counties—as shown in the map to the right. This map highlights the number of affordable homes that exist in Fire Hazard Severity Zones by county, with counties with no affordable housing in FHSZs denoted in gray.

*43% of affordable homes in FHSZs are in large-family developments, 19% are in senior developments, and 2% are in special needs developments.

[CLICK MAP TO EXPLORE]

Other environmental hazards newly covered in the Map show that a substantial portion of California’s subsidized affordable housing is located in areas that are vulnerable to environmental disaster events. Of California’s nearly 520,000 affordable rental homes subsidized by the state or federal government, 89% of affordable rental homes are in an area under threat of at least one of the four environmental hazards tracked in our mapping tool. Across the state, 79% of affordable rental homes are located in an area with high potential for earthquakes,15% for heat waves, and 4% for flooding.

The Los Angeles fires are only the most recent reminder that California’s already inadequate housing stock is threatened by multiple climate-related forces. I invite you to explore the new layers on our Map and Benefits Calculator and think about what policies our state will need to safeguard and expand our supply of resilient affordable homes. And if you’d like to support those affected by these recent wildfires, I encourage you to support wildfire and disaster relief efforts happening across California, such as the Los Angeles County Wildfire Relief Fund, California Wildfires Relief GoFundMe, and the Mutual Aid Los Angeles Network.

Yasmin Givens

Research & Policy Analyst

California Housing Partnership

Endnotes

[1] https://www.fire.ca.gov/incidents

[2] https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2025/01/08/weather/los-angeles-fire-maps-california.html

[4] https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2019EF001210

[5] https://www.urban.org/sites/default/files/2024-01/Preserving_Protecting_and_Building_Climate-Resilient_Affordable_Housing.pdf

The California Housing Partnership creates and preserves affordable and sustainable homes for Californians with low incomes by providing expert financial and policy solutions to nonprofit and public partners. Since 1988, the Partnership's on-the-ground technical assistance, applied research, and legislative leadership has leveraged $37 billion in private and public financing to preserve and create more than 96,000 affordable homes.

Visit us at www.chpc.net.

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