Pheno Forecasts

Greetings!


Thanks for your interest in the USA National Phenology Network's Pheno Forecasts this year, intended to assist you in indicating when pests were active in your area.


Due to technical difficulties, our forecasts for several species (apple maggot, Asian longhorned beetle, bagworm, bronze birch borer, eastern tent caterpillar, hemlock woolly adelgid, lilac borer, magnolia scale, pine needle scale, spongy moth, and winter moth) stopped sending in June of this year. If your location reached the requirements for activity after this date, you may not have received a notification this year. We apologize for the disruption. We are currently exploring options to fix these forecasts.


We want to hear your feedback on three of our most recent Pheno Forecasts. If you signed up for notifications for one of the species below, please complete the survey to let us know how the forecasts performed for you this year. Your input will help ensure that the forecasts are most useful to you.

Photos: Wandering Mogwai, CC BY-SA 4.0 (SLF), David Cappaert, Bugwood.org (EAB, Japanese Beetle)

What did observers report on insect pests this year?

In total, 38 observers tracked 10 Pest Patrol species at 23 total sites this year through Nature's Notebook. Observers reported "yes" records of eastern tent caterpillar, emerald ash borer, hemlock woolly adelgid, and spotted lanternfly.


How did the Pheno Forecasts match up to Nature's Notebook observations this year?

The graph below shows the agreement between the Pheno Forecasts for each species and the data reported by Nature's Notebook observers. Overall there was great agreement between the forecasts and observations. Aside from reports of eastern tent caterpillars and hemlock woolly adelgid, there were very few instances where the forecast predicted the absence of the insect but you indicated the insect was present.

Did you earn your Pest Patrol Badge this year?


Submit observations of pests six times in a year and you can earn the Pest Patrol badge featured at right. See it on your Observation Deck.


How do we forecast activity of pests?

Insect pest forecasts are based on USA-NPN Accumulated Growing Degree Day (AGDD) map products and published GDD thresholds. References for the published thresholds used to generate the forecasts appear on the individual species pages linked from our Pheno Forecast page.

Contact

Erin Posthumus

erin@usanpn.org

520-314-7883

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