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PDF | Research | Week of February 19, 2024

Quote of the Week

“We expect volatility to stay lower for a little longer and expect no bigger setback in markets – unless ‘something new’ happens.”

– February 2024 report, Deutsche Bank, cross-asset strategists, as quoted in the FT

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Four for '24 (Last of a Series)

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How to Stop Worrying About the Maturity Wall (Last of a Series)

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It is a measure of the impact the GFC had on regulators, financial policy makers, and the capital markets that faith in systemic liquidity is now a foundational principle.


We saw that confidence further underlined as the economy emerged intact from the global pandemic. And supported as well by the patience shown by financial markets as central banks pursued their aggressive battle against inflation. The reward has so far been the softest of landings, a possibility dismissed by many economists not long ago.


And how about that inverted yield curve?


We invoke these predictions not to cast aside all fears, but to illustrate the challenge of underestimating how capital, like water, fills a vacuum regardless of financial circumstances. Worries about the leveraged loan maturity wall fall into this category...

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New: Private Capital Call Podcast


Episode 3: Mickey D. Levy, Macro Economist

"I believe the U.S.’s favorable characteristics will lead it forward and I remain positive." - Mickey D. Levy

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Chart of the Week

Larger for Longer

Echoing dynamics in the loan market, corporate debt maturities have lengthened.

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Source: Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research


(Past performance is no guarantee of future results.)

February 6 & 7, 2024

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Loan Stats at a Glance 

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Contact: Ryan Brown / PitchBook LCD

PDI Picks

Investors bullish on returns

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Private debt’s recent outperformance of private equity has bolstered faith in its ability to beat performance benchmarks.

Another boost was given to believers in a private debt ‘golden age’ last week, with a report from Bloomberg suggesting private debt fund returns beat those for private equity for two quarters in a row in the second and third quarters of last year...

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Leveraged Loan Insight & Analysis

Daily Analytic: Share of portfolios marked below 80% varies widely across BDCs

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*Based on universe of BDCs that have reported 4Q23 earnings as of 2/13/24


Looking at the universe of 24 BDCs that have published their 4Q23 results as of February 20, we see that credit quality statistics have been relatively stable, with notable differences across individual BDCs...

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Contact: CJ Doherty / LSEG

The Pulse of Private Equity

Despite the uptick in LBO EBITDA yields, the risk-free rate’s move up makes 2023 valuations particularly unattractive, historically speaking.

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Comparing EBITDA yields to the 10-year Treasury allows us to normalize for the interest rate environment when each vintage was beginning to make their leveraged investments...

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Contact: Garrett Black / PitchBook

KBRA Direct Lending Deals: News & Analysis

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TTM Default Volume, Count

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Contact: Eric Rosenthal / KBRA DLD

Middle Market & Private Credit

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Fitch’s Private Middle Market Portfolio, Rating Activity

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Upgrades/downgrades in Fitch’s PMM portfolio are generally skewed toward downgrades, as issuer ratings can be constrained on the upside based on limited scale. Downgrades outpaced upgrades in 2023 as pressure from higher interest rates affected the FCF and financial flexibility of issuers in lower rating categories...

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Contact: Brad Hamner / FitchRatings

Covenant Trends 

Rolling Tallies of MFN Sunsets

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Contact: Steven Miller / Covenant Review

High-Yield Bond Statistics

Launched Volume

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New-issue Yields

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Weekly Fund Flows

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Weekly fund flows source: Lipper

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Contact: Robert Polenberg / LevFin Insights

Debtwire Middle-Market

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The blue line in the chart is the current dividend yield of the *VanEck BDC Income ETF (currently at 10.8% as of 15 February, down from the highest level in last 12 months of 12.1% in May 2023) that tracks the overall performance of publicly traded business development companies (BDCs, lenders to privately held middle-market businesses that tend to be below investment grade or not rated, with most lending comprising of senior secured loans)...

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Contact: Suneet Chandvani / Debtwire 

Private Debt Intelligence

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GPs target APAC’s emerging private debt market

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APAC’s nascent private debt market is witnessing significant growth, with the amount of capital targeted by direct lending funds rising to $11.7bn from 45 APAC-focused vehicles at the end of 2023, up from $7.3bn by 40 funds at the start of the year, according to Preqin data...

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Contact: Grant MurgatroydPreqin

February Update: Middle Market Deal Terms at a Glance

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Contact: Stefan Shaffer / SPP Capital Partners

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This publication is a service to our clients and friends. It is designed only to give general information on the market developments actually covered. It is not intended to be a comprehensive summary of recent developments or to suggest parameters for any prospective financing opportunity.