Hurricane Helene and Drought Update

Updated 9-26-24 at 6:30 PM ET

Good evening, folks! I thought I’d send out a quick update ahead of what will be an extremely wet and windy end to the workweek.

Following a couple months of dry conditions, we have a second hurricane approaching the Bluegrass State. Hurricane Helene is expected to make landfall on the Florida Panhandle early tonight as a strong Category 3 storm, with wind speeds greater than 110 mph. While we want to see the rain in our neck of the woods, the impacts will unfortunately be widespread across the Florida coastline. In addition to catastrophic wind damage, some residents are bracing for the potential of 15+ foot storm surge.

This system will then push due north rather quickly tonight and into Friday, gradually diminishing in strength as it approaches Kentucky. That said, we’re still in line to see a good amount of rainfall from this system, and the winds WILL pack a punch—especially for those crops impacted by drought this fall. Current model runs indicate the potential for 2-5+ inches across much of the Bluegrass State (see map below), most of which will fall tonight and into tomorrow. That’s on top of some decent rainfall totals recently; over the past three days, data from the Ag Weather Center shows the state has averaged 1.10 inches. Despite the dry conditions as of late, some flooding can’t be ruled out tomorrow when the brunt of the rain moves through the region.

In addition to significant rainfall, we’ll also have to deal with high winds. The National Weather Service has issued a Wind Advisory for almost the entirety of the state tomorrow, with wind gusts of 40-50 mph expected. Portions of Southeastern Kentucky have been upgraded to a High Wind Warning, with possible gusts of 50-60 mph, mainly in higher elevations. Some power outages are certainly on the table. Bottom line: we have a very active weather day to end the workweek. For additional information, visit the following links to the National Weather Service offices in Louisville, Jackson, and Paducah. Stay safe, tomorrow!

Looking at the dryness aspect, Hurricane Helene is exactly what we needed—or at least, a start. Sure, it’s too late for our grain crops, but getting some moisture for our pastures is paramount. According to the September 24th update of the U.S. Drought Monitor (image below), about 67% of Kentucky is experiencing moderate to severe drought conditions. This marks the highest drought percentage of the 2024 season and the highest coverage since January, when we were coming out of our last fall drought. Speaking of which, this officially marks a third consecutive year of drought conditions during the fall season—not ideal!

This drought has essentially developed over the course of a couple months. Prior to the start of the workweek (through September 22nd), month-to-date average rainfall for the state of Kentucky totaled just 1.23 inches, nearly 1.5 inches below normal for that stretch. This followed a dry month of August, during which the state averaged only 2.48 inches, making it the 21st driest August ever recorded (130-year record). Those numbers are taken a step further for Western and Central Kentucky, which averaged 1.49 and 1.79 inches, respectively. This would rank as the 11th and 13th driest Augusts on record for those regions.

Impacts have been on the rise, especially for livestock producers as many dip into winter hay supplies and water resources continue to diminish. According to the last KY Crop Progress and Condition Report, 44% of Kentucky pastures are now considered in poor to very poor condition. There's some concern among producers of the lack of a fall hay cutting, prompting some to think about thinning herds. The combination of impacts has led to the issuance of a level one state drought declaration by the Kentucky Energy and Environmental Cabinet.

Looking forward, shower chances will remain through Tuesday, before turning dry with seasonable temperatures in place. That dry trend continues into the first and second weeks of October, evidenced by the outlooks below. In some good news, near to above normal temperatures are also favored during this timeframe, which should allow pastures to find some recovery ahead of any hard freezes. On average, most of Kentucky won't see a hard freeze until the end of October or early November.

Just a quick reminder that "Weather Alert" is now available on both Android and iOS platforms. More information on the project can be found in the May 7th Ag Weather Update or from UK M-G CAFE, in their article titled, "UK launches new "Weather Alert" smartphone app".

Again, the project was two-fold: to heighten awareness during extreme weather conditions and secondly, to empower Kentucky farming operations with valuable insights for management and production-related decisions. Please share!