Just The Tip of The ICEberg We're sending a few global news updates that may be of interest to you or others in your office. If you come across a valuable newsworthy article, send it in and we'll publish it for the benefit of other ICE Group Members. Thank You.

FCIA's December Major Country Risk Developments, written by Byron Shoulton: Faced with mounting opposition to strict Covid lockdowns and anti-government protests not seen in a generation, plus its lowest growth targets in three decades – China’s leadership confronts an unexpected threat of social unrest. The authorities have reacteded swiftly by easing daily testing requirements in some major cities while instructing local governments to become more sensitive and flexible in the implementation of lockdown directives. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has historically been especially unaccepting of social instability in this one-party-dominated system. The effects of the lockdowns on production, employment, lack of mobility; and communities feeling cut off from access to everyday conveniences, have created deep frustrations among the Chinese populous. For the recently ‘crowned’ three-term President Xi Jinping, the recent outbursts of unrest, coming so soon in the beginning of his new term – represents an unwelcome blot on his record. Street demonstrations, and defiance toward authority on display by young unemployed Chinese citizens, also reflects poorly on the CCP’s renewed dominance over all aspects of civilian and political life under president Xi. With these developments and the specter of global eyes focused on instability in China, the need to get the economy moving again takes on greater urgency. President Xi could be facing the biggest test of his tenure. The outcome could reshape how foreign multinationals operate in China, the flow of global manufacturing investment, and China’s relations with developed democracies. For decades, foreign companies operating in China have benefited from access to the country’s massive labor force, in exchange for largely steering clear of politics. Investment-hungry local Chinese governments, in turn, have often acted pre-emptively to defuse problems that might complicate business- particularly independent labor activism, resistance to land acquisition, or other forms of organized protest. That has been one key factor that has long distinguished China from other potential manufacturing competitors such as India. To the extent that multinational manufacturing worried about political risks, it has primarily been about geopolitics, rather than conditions in China itself.  To read more about this and other important updates from Countries around the world, click HERE 

UK Inflation Keeps Climbing – There is little in this latest data release that would come as any kind of surprise but it stings, nonetheless. Inflation hit 11.1% on the back of the same issues that have been driving these price hikes for months – the cost of food and fuel. This marks the highest rate in 41 years. As has been the case throughout this inflation surge, the motivators are nearly all external. This is not a case of excess demand or excessive money supply. This is “cost-push” inflation triggered by the savage hikes in the cost of energy and food. Even the food hikes can be attributed to the energy crisis in part as these have been hiked due to factors such as transportation and the costs of farm inputs all over the world. The majority of British food and energy are imported and that adds to the cost equation. The challenge for the Bank of England and new PM Rishi Sunak is that they have very limited control over this kind of inflation. (Courtesy of Armada Business Intelligence)

Global Supply Chains Face "Hangover" as Excess Demand Softens It’s not even the morning of New Year’s Day and already there’s talk in supply-chain circles of the 2023 hangover. “There’s a reliability hangover,” Bill Seward, the new president of supply-chain solutions at United Parcel Service, said in an interview. He was referring to lingering headaches from more than two years of shipping congestion, delivery disruptions, and component shortages around the world. “Many, many companies still feel chagrined and burned by what happened with regard to accessibility,” he said. While ports may be opening a bit and transportation rates may be coming down, there’s still plenty of angst. “A lot of senior execs feel very kind of battered by the last two years with regard to reliability and there’s a heavy emphasis on the ability to de-risk and to be able to flex in different ways,” Seward said. For instance, UPS is seeing reshoring trends shift the demand for its services to markets like Mexico, and the courier company is trying to adapt with the changes. “Costs of manufacturing and those things are definitely not coming down the way they’d like,” he said. “So you’re seeing shifts in terms of where manufacturing will happen and we’re seeing it in our business. We are definitely seeing this shift to different geographies.” Seward was among several contacts who spoke or emailed in recent days with some views on the year-ahead outlook. Click HERE to read the complete article. (Courtesy of M.E. Dey & Co.)

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Virtual ICE Program 2023 Global Economic Forecast Presented by Chris Kuehl January 26, 2023 10:30 a.m. - 12:00 p.m. CT Inflation! Interest Rates! A strong Dollar! A Soft Landing! What does 2023 have in store for us? Please join ICE for a virtual meeting with Dr. Chris Kuehl on Thursday, January 26th at 10:30 a.m. CT for a global economic review that is a must for credit managers and your international trade team. Chris is one of the most engaging – and funny – economists you will ever hear. He will take us on a review of the economic and political landscape both here and overseas to give you insight into how geopolitical events may impact your business in the coming year. Dr. Chris Kuehl is a Managing Director of Armada Corporate Intelligence. He provides forecasts and strategic guidance for a wide variety of corporate clients around the world. He is the chief economist for several national and international organizations Prior to starting Armada in 1999, he was a professor of economics and finance for 15 years – teaching in the US, Hungary, Russia, Estonia, Singapore, and Taiwan. He holds advanced degrees in economics, Soviet studies, and East Asian studies. Chris is the co-author of The Flagship and the Strategic Intelligence System – both publications from Armada. He is also an economist for the Fabricators and Manufacturers Association and responsible for the Credit Manager’s Index. Needless to say, we are thrilled to partner with Dr. Chris Kuehl and excited for him to share his business and economic insights - all with a touch of humor. The takeaways from this webinar will empower you to make informed decisions about the future of your business. Dr. Chris Kuehl’s 90-minute economic outlook webinar is only $50 for ICE members and $75 for non-members.

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Upcoming Webinar: The Credit and Sales Partnership Presented by Eddy Sumar January 11, 2022 9:00 a.m. - 10:00 a.m. CT Credit and Sales are two sides of a precious currency.  One cannot exist without the other. For a company to thrive, Credit and Sales have to cooperate and collaborate in order to maximize sales, minimize bad debt, increase profit, and expedite cash flow.   In this webinar, the participants will explore and gain insight into how Credit and Sales can become partners working harmoniously together.  The webinar will answer the following questions: Can credit and sales really become partners? Why? How? What is the state of credit today? How significant is credit for the economy and for the company? Why does conflict exist and persist between credit and sales? How can we resolve the conflict? How vital is perception? What is the integrative approach? How can we use it to change the perception of credit? And much more… Click HERE to register for the webinar. Click HERE to learn more. 

Save the Dates for the upcoming ICE Programs January 26, 2023: 2023 Global Economic Forecast March 22, 2023: Kidnap, Ransom & Data Theft: Keeping yourself and your company’s secrets safe while abroad May 24, 2023: Bankruptcy Around the World

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