The recent and coming closures of California oil refineries have sparked concerns about possible fuel shortages and near-certain price spikes in Nevada. The shutdowns will reduce CA’s oil output by 284,000 barrels per day (about 17 percent of the state’s refining capacity), cutting into Silver State supply.

To address the coming changes to supply, Gov. Joe Lombardo’s office and the Nevada Commission on Homeland Security have formed a fuel resiliency subcommittee aimed at developing “long-term strategies” that will “diversify supply routes.”

Committees can’t fight the laws of supply and demand, though, so price increases are nearly certain as stakeholders seek to avoid potential gas shortages. Estimates range from a per-gallon increase in Nevada of as little as $1.00 to as much as $3.50. The latter would bring prices close to $8.00 per gallon in some parts of the state.

Nevadans have long paid more than the national average: The U.S. average for a gallon of gas dropped just below $3.00 in December, but most Nevadans were paying $3.75 to $4.00.

Source: AAA As of 1/5/26

Snapshot of NV vs. CA fuel price trends:

Source: AAA As of 1/5/26

Nevada gets its non-CA fuel from Utah. In a move to take advantage of the coming squeeze, a Utah lawmaker recently proposed a bill for the state’s 2026 legislative session that would change Utah’s gas tax structure, shifting the levy onto fuel exports — including the gas that will make its way into Nevada, according to a story in The Nevada Independent.

SSI

We felt we would be remiss if we did not include in the year’s first Fact Pack edition helpful notes for those who will file for Social Security benefits in some future year, and those among the 75 million Americans who will receive a 2.8 percent cost-of-living boost to their SS income in 2026.

• Some of you may see more money deducted from your paychecks for Social Security taxes. In 2026, people earning up to $184,500 must pay SS taxes (up from $176,100 in 2025).

• You can earn up to $24,480 in SSI without having any of benefit withheld (up from $23,400 in 2025). For earnings above that amount, $1 in benefits will be deducted for every $2 earned.

• Those who will reach “full retirement age” in 2026—a few months short of 67—can earn up to $65,160 in earnings before benefits are withheld. Beyond that amount, $1 in benefits will be deducted for every $3 earned. (The amount increased from $62,160 in 2025.)

• For those working part-time and approaching the minimum required work credits to collect SSI, credits will now accrue at a different rate: The value of each work credit is increasing from $1,810 to $1,890 in 2026. Workers will need a total annual income of $7,560 to be eligible for the maximum of four credits.

For more on 2026 changes, click here.

30+ Days Past Due

Year-end credit card delinquency rates across the U.S. show Nevada is NOT among the “top” states where consumers are struggling to make on-time payments — although one could argue that a rate of nearly one in five is less than great:

Data source: WalletHub As of Q2 2025

States with residents who did not fare well quarter over quarter in the first half of 2025:

Data source: WalletHub As of Q2 2025

Nevada was 11th best among states for quarter-over-quarter increase in late pays:

Data source: WalletHub As of Q2 2025

Topping Tesla

Tesla is no longer the world’s top seller of electric cars, reporting an 8.6 percent decrease in deliveries in 2025, its second consecutive annual decline. China’s BYD is now tops, delivering almost 2.26 million EVs in 2025 to Tesla’s 1.64 million.

While we wait for more annualized EV data, this infographic from Q1 of last year is worth a look:

Data source: JATO Graphic source: Visual Capitalist As of Q1 2025

Takeaways:

• Electrified vehicles made up 43 percent of global auto sales in Q1 2025, up from 9 percent.

• China accounted for 57 percent of global Battery Electric Vehicle sales. Europe followed with 22 percent, and the U.S. rounded out the top three with 12 percent.

Notably, the EV share of new car sales in the U.S. has hovered around 10 percent since early 2023. Developing nations in Southeast Asia are passing the U.S. in EV adoption, and a number of EU nations — such as Norway (as Will Ferrell comedically informed Americans in a Superbowl advertisement) — are doing the same.

Graph source: Dana Nuccitelli at Yale Climate Connections As of 2025

Data source: Argonne National Laboratory

One caveat: The U.S. auto market is unique, with SUVs and trucks accounting for about 80 percent of new car sales, compared to less than 50 percent globally. Data shows consumers in most other countries have a far stronger preference for smaller, more fuel-efficient vehicles, on average.

Oil Reserves

Those on Team Gasoline may want to note this late 2024 data, also from Visual Capitalist:

Graph source: Visual Capitalist As of late 2024

Data source: OPEC and Government of Canada

Nations with reserves of less than Qatar’s 25 billion barrels:

Tables source: Visual Capitalist as of 2025

Data source: OPEC and Government of Canada

Hot Coffee with a Hint of Cow

“You’d think it would smell like coffee. Instead, there’s a faint whiff of livestock in the air.”

So began this amusing write-up on a gathering of 14,000 Starbucks store managers at the Thomas & Mack Center at UNLV in June 2024. If you missed it, as we did, enjoy the read — perhaps while sipping a Starbucks creation made with its new-ish 1971 Roast.

Heavy Levy Toll

In recent weeks, atmospheric river storms have flowed across California, Oregon, and Washington, unloading not-small amounts of rain and causing rivers to surge and breach multiple levees. The damage reflects and underlines a growing problem: Across the U.S., levees are getting older while weather is getting more extreme.

The National Levee Database tracks more than 24,000 miles of levees in the U.S. with an average age of 61 years. They protect more than 23 million people and approximately $7 million in buildings and structures valued at nearly $2 trillion.

Some levees are regularly inspected, according to this in-depth piece in The Conversation, but others are owned by local agencies or small private entities with limited budgets. In some cases, responsibility for levee maintenance and repair is “unclear or fragmented.”

The map below shows all levees in the U.S. National Levee Database (in pink) along with 478 levee segments where overtopping occurred in the past 15 years (in blue).

Data source: FAO, NOAA, USGS Map source: The Conversation As of 2025

The American Society of Civil Engineers’ 2025 Report Card for American Infrastructure, gave the nation’s levees a D-plus grade, citing aging infrastructure, inconsistent monitoring and long-term underinvestment.

There are socio-economic implications, as well. The disparity map below illustrates the percentage of each state’s residents protected by levees who are considered economically disadvantaged, based on the U.S. Council on Environmental Quality’s Climate and Economic Justice Screening Tool.

Data source: U.S. Council on Environmental Quality Climate and Economic Justice Screening Tool

Map source: The Conversation As of 2025

Lightning Strikes

The U.S. has a new “lightning capital” (Shady Grove, Oklahoma) after each square mile in. 2025 saw an average of 3,005 strikes. Lightning struck land in the U.S. more than 250 million times during the year, a 20 percent jump from 2024, according to new data from Vaisala Inc.’s Xweather.

Lightning strikes can have a substantial economic effect: Annual lightning damage to wind turbines has averaged more than $100 million across the country in recent years.

Equipment, machinery, and infrastructure — including aircraft, power lines, telecommunications towers, and oil and gas sites — are also exposed, along with major event stadiums, which put thousands of people at risk during peak sports and concert seasons.

Two NFL games were delayed or suspended by lightning in 2024: One at EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville, Florida, and the other at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia during the season-opening game between the Eagles and Dallas Cowboys.

A senior scientist at Xweather said there was “no single weather causation” for the strike spike, adding that there were more than 2 billion lightning events around the world in 2025, a 7 percent decrease compared to 2024.

Sunny Shores

In other weather news, the UK just posted its warmest and sunniest year on record, helping fuel increase in solar generation. More than 18.5 terawatt-hours of solar energy was produced in 2025, a 30 percent increase over 2024 — and the most since record-keeping started, per data from the National Energy System Operator.

As of 2025

On the Horizon

MarketWatch calendar:

Data & Dialogue About the Economy



The Fact Pack is a monthly business e-report co-authored by Mike PeQueen of Hightower Las Vegas and John Restrepo of RCG Economics, which combines important metrics relevant to business decision makers and financial commentary on the current issues facing the economy.

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