Preliminary estimates fromAccuWeather are that damage and loss associated with the wildfires razing Los Angeles area neighborhoods — including many that contained multi-million dollar homes — could amount to as much as $150 billion, making it one of the most costly wildfires and natural disasters in recent U.S. history. 


As the following Statista chart shows, the economic impact of the current Southern California fires is expected to exceed the damages from entire 2020 and 2021 Western U.S. wildfire seasons — while trailing the 2018 wildfire season, which the costliest and deadliest to date, with estimated economic losses of $400 billion: 

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As of 2024


This Statista graph compares metrics from the 2024 California fire season to the average for the prior five years: 

As of 2024


(Note: AccuWeather estimates used by Statista include direct costs, such as property and infrastructure loss, along with indirect costs like power outages and other supply chain disruptions.) 


Most at Risk

  

California has the largest number of homes at risk of extreme wildfires among the states. In 2023, nearly 1.3 million — 8.7 percent of homes in the state — were considered at risk, according to data by CoreLogic published by the Insurance Information Institute.  


In forest-rich Colorado, the state with the second most homes at risk of fire destruction (330,000+), the percentage of housing units at risk is 12.6 percent.

 

Statista graph showing the eight highest risk states: 

As of 2023 


Fire Insurance 


The risk of wildfires and property destruction has become so prevalent in states including California that last July, insurer State Farm discontinued 72,000 home insurance policies in the state. Notably, among the zip codes with most cancellations were Pacific Palisades and Calabasas/Hidden Hills, both of which are experiencing catastrophic fire damage: 

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As of 2024


Other states including Nevada have also been faced with insurers pulling out of fire-prone regions — but homeowner risk is not the only problem. Rising insurance premiums and the inability to secure a third-party policy has prompted NV Energy to ask state energy regulators to approve a $500 million wildfire self-insurance policy in case its equipment sparks a blaze. 


Other Western state electric utilities have already sought to self-insure in the wake of a series of successful liability lawsuits against utility companies — including a case that drove California’s PG&E into bankruptcy. 


Between 2016 and 2020, it is estimated that utility infrastructure caused nearly 20 percent of all wildfires. A variety of state-based solutions have been floated — along with one for a federal backstop consisting of a wildfire fund supported by a voluntary multistate safety program rooted in incentives. 


(Editor’s note: Co-author of the federal proposal and Stanford Doer scholar Michael Wara, who studies fire risk in the Mountain West including Northern Nevada, spoke about the proposal and Nevada’s risks at DRI’s wildfire summit last August. The summit’s insurance risk panel discussion included Vice President of Nevada REALTORS® Grant Meyer, a longtime Incline-based resident and real estate broker, who spoke about growing concerns in Washoe County and the Tahoe Basin.) 


General Climate Change Risk 


Catastrophic fire is not the only environmental challenge facing the country, underlined by the fact that Mississippi, Louisiana and Alabama are the states with the highest level of vulnerability to the impacts of climate change, according to the U.S. Climate Vulnerability Index (an analysis and ranking by the Environmental Defense Fund and Texas A&M University). 


The Index methodology includes and weighs 184 economic, health, and social impacts and as the following chart shows, the southern states, some midwestern states, and New Mexico carry the most risk from climate change

As of 2024 


Mississippi has the worst ranking based on impacts to child and maternal health, transportation sources, and food insecurity. Florida’s top drivers of climate vulnerability are temperature-related deaths, the costs of hurricane and flood disaster preparation and recovery, and infectious diseases. Kentucky has a low score for air pollution-related deaths, and California — which overall is considered to have “average vulnerability” — stands out for its high number of annual droughts.  


The following county map from the U.S. Climate Vulnerability Index landing page offers more detail (click here if you want to examine the map or sort and filter by climate impacts): 

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As of 2024


Here’s an example of the kind of granular data available on a county or tract level the Climate Vulnerability interactive map (we clicked on the highest vulnerability percentile region in Nevada): 

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As of 2024


Jarbidge, an unincorporated community in Elko County located approximately 10 miles south of the Idaho–Nevada border is ranked most vulnerable out of 687 tracts in Nevada: 

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As of 2024 


Reasons for the ranking: 

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As of 2024


Regarding wildfire damage (to bring us full circle on this complicated topic), economic impact can include: 


  • direct property damage & insurance costs 


  • disruption to tourism & transportation networks 


  • impacts on businesses & supply chain disruptions 


  • long-term disruptions to workforce & employment centers

 

  • increased healthcare costs (including from air pollution). 


The costliest wildfire in U.S. history, 2018’s Camp Fire, resulted in a loss of about $10 billion (at the time), and eight of the 10 costliest wildfires ever in the U.S. have taken place in the past four years. 


Insurance Market Cap 


UnitedHealth Group wins the market value war by a lot: 

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As of 1/7/25 


Consumer Credit 


Consumer credit totals unexpectedly fell in November, the steepest drop in credit card debt since 2020: 

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As of 2024 


Literacy Rates by State 


New Hampshire wins with a literacy score of 278.9, narrowly beating out Minnesota.  

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As of 2024


The most populous states are all ow on the ranking: New York (42nd), Florida (44th) California (46th), and Texas (48th) are all in the bottom 10. The last place ranking is a tie: Louisiana and New Mexico both slot in with a 251.5 score. 


(Note A literacy score is a snapshot of reading‐comprehension and text‐analysis skills on a standardized scale. The numbers in the 250–280 range don’t measure “percent literate” but rather show where a state’s (or individual’s) average ability lies on a 0–500 continuum.) 


Same data by county: 

As of 2024


Eggs 


The price of large eggs has reached a 15-year high: 

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As of 1/5/25 


Jobs Report 


We turn now to jobs numbers reported Friday: payrolls grew more than expected (+256,000) in December. 

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The national “headline” unemployment rate fell to 4.1 percent. The U-6 employment rate, which includes discouraged workers and those holding part-time positions for economic reasons, dropped to 7.5 percent, a decrease of 0.2 percentage point — the lowest since June 2024. 

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Average hourly earnings increased 0.3 percent over November, and the 12-month gain was of 3.9 percent. Trend: 

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On the Horizon


Mike PeQueen: After last week’s stronger-than-expected employment report, expect plenty of attention to be paid to today’s producer price index and Wednesday’s consumer price index to divine whether the Fed will cut rates in 2025. A weak inflation picture would provide hope. 

Data & Dialogue About the Economy



The Fact Pack is a monthly business e-report co-authored by Mike PeQueen of Hightower Las Vegas and John Restrepo of RCG Economics, which combines important metrics relevant to business decision makers and financial commentary on the current issues facing the economy.


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Mike PeQueen
Hightower Las Vegas
John Restrepo
RCG Economics