Uncertainty about how or whether mass deportations will be conducted in Mountain West states and across the country has prompted many research teams to assess the potential economic impact.  

Pew Research data shows the number of unauthorized immigrants in the U.S. workforce grew from 7.4 million in 2019 to 8.3 million in 2022, amounting to about 4.8 percent 

As of 2022 

States with the highest share of unauthorized immigrants in the workforce, according to Pew: 

• Nevada (9 percent) 

• Texas and Florida (8 percent) 

• California, New Jersey, and Maryland (7 percent) 

On the flip side, Pew reported that fewer than 1 percent of workers in Montana, Maine, Vermont, and West Virginia were unauthorized in 2022. 

A study on the national implications of mass deportations by researchers at Washington College in Philadelphia estimated the U.S. economy would shrink between 2.6 percent and 6.8 percent, amounting to drop of $1 to $2 trillion per year. 

In a report on Arizona’s eviction of roughly 40 percent of its undocumented workers between 2008 and 2015, the same analysts estimated the state’s economy shrank by 2 percentage points and employment decreased by about 2.5 percent. 

Mass deportations would affect several U.S. industries, including the two major employment drivers in Nevada: construction and hospitality. This Visual Capitalist graphic illustrates the national numbers: 

As of 11/18/24 

Among six Mountain West states – Colorado, New Mexico, Arizona, Utah, Nevada and Idaho – immigrants without legal status contribute $5.6 billion dollars in taxes, per the American Immigration Council (AIC). 

AIC reported that nearly 40 percent of Nevada’s hospitality workers were undocumented in 2022. Recent data from the National Association of Home Builders and AIC shows that about one-third of Nevada’s construction industry workers are immigrants without visas or citizenship.

An AIC analysis showed that Nevada’s undocumented immigrant workers paid more in state and federal taxes than the state’s top 1 percent of households. The same report showed that nationally, households led by undocumented immigrants paid $75.6B in taxes — $29.0B in state and local taxes and $46.6B in federal taxes. 

This Center for Migration Studies table breaks down where Nevada’s undocumented immigrants hail from: 

As of 2022 

Immigration and Crime 

Political narratives from numerous high-profile Republicans about the connection between crime rates and undocumented immigrants has been countered by Cato Institute research showing that both legal and illegal immigrants are nearly half as likely to commit crimes for which they are incarcerated in the United States. 

Cato’s graph on incarceration rates is particularly illuminating: 

As of 2024 

Numerous studies have also found that immigrants are consistently linked to lower crime rates including homicide rates — and drug-trafficking related deaths. 

Nevada Metrics 

Stats below as of January 2025. 

Statewide: 

North: 

South: 

More data and graphs here.

Manufacturing Employment 

Manufacturing has rebounded nationally, surpassing pre-pandemic levels, but growth has not been evenly distributed, according to data by the Economic Innovation Group (EIG). Recovery has been concentrated in the Sun Belt and Mountain West (especially Utah), while in nearly half of the states, manufacturing employment has not yet rebounded to 2019 levels. 

As of 2023 

The COVID recession saw a loss of 650,000 jobs in 2020. By 2023, it had recouped the losses, with manufacturing employment just above 12.9 million workers, exceeding the 2019 figure (12.8 million).

The post-pandemic period also shifted manufacturing growth away from rural areas and towards small urban counties, which have become the sector’s primary drivers of job creation. Small urban counties have accounted for 61 percent of new manufacturing jobs added since 2019, per EIG. 

As of 2023 

Manufacturing’s importance in the U.S. job market has been waning since 1970, when the sector employed roughly 18 million workers, or 31 percent of private sector employment. By 2010, manufacturing jobs accounted for only 10.7 percent of the private workforce. As of 2023, the share was down to 9.7 percent. 

More data is available on the EIG website. 

Inflation Driver 

Morgan Stanley Research recently noted that fire disasters often drive inflation higher — primarily in the form of increasing vehicle prices. 

As of 2025 

And: 

As of 2025

If you want to get a sense of how big the L.A. fires are compared to where you live, click on this and lLAist link and scroll down to this feature: 

As of 2025 

We typed in the address of Red Rock Casino Resort (as a proxy for central Summerlin) and got this result: 

As of 2025 

The District in Green Valley: 

As of 2025 

Silver Legacy Resort Casino in. Reno: 

As of 2025 

Global Sentiment 

Got optimism? Survey says… 

On the Horizon

Mike PeQueen: Wednesday’s interest rate decision by the Fed and their subsequent press conference will dominate economic news next week. Friday’s PCE deflator (the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge) could also move markets.  

Data & Dialogue About the Economy



The Fact Pack is a monthly business e-report co-authored by Mike PeQueen of Hightower Las Vegas and John Restrepo of RCG Economics, which combines important metrics relevant to business decision makers and financial commentary on the current issues facing the economy.

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