A few days after last week’s Fact Pack deep dive into the nation’s debt, Brookings published a risk-focused report on the topic that identified sources of a potential debt-driven fiscal crisis, including: 

• A sudden shift in demand or supply of Treasuries such that interest rates spike, causing market disruptions the Fed is unable to mitigate 

• Market perception that the Fed was abandoning its mandate to preserve price stability leading to fear of hyperinflation 

• Loss of confidence by investors in the U.S. Treasury driven by anticipated or feared default on interest or principal payments  

The Congressional Budget Office’s (CBO’s) March 2024 long-term projections of federal debt (under current law) are that it will reach 166 percent by 2054: 

As of 2/12/25 

The authors of the Brookings report noted that — barring a sudden, unforeseen market anomaly — it is almost certainly within policymakers’ power to avoid a crisis, and that the most likely cause of a near-term, major disruption is political “brinksmanship” or a misstep that undermines the credibility of the Federal Reserve. 

Only Singapore has more government debt per capita than the U.S.: 

As of 2023 

Read the full Brookings report here.

Stilling 

Declining wind speeds and rising summer temperatures in North American and European regions reliant on wind power are putting stress on energy grids — and on the budgets of households seeking relief via air conditioning — new research shows.  

The effects of wind “stilling” can be problematic in winter months, too. Bloomberg Green noted that Nordic power prices spiked hit two-year high last week as freezing conditions in northern Europe caused an increase in demand for heating just as wind generation dropped to near zero. 

As of 2/11/25 

Christopher Vogel, a wind and tidal power researcher at the University of Oxford, said recent research suggests the effect of intensified warming and cooling on wind will become statistically significant in the second half of the century. 

Defense Spending 

Russia’s military expenditure (as a percentage of GDP) in 2024 was over 40 percent more than in 2023 and substantially exceeded that of other top spenders, according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies’ latest Military Balance report. 

As of 2022 

Bloomberg reported yesterday that euro value declined, and investors sold European bonds and bought defense company stocks “on speculation a meeting in Paris between the bloc’s leaders will point toward” higher defense spending. 

As of 2/14/25 

Bloomberg Economics has estimated that upgrading defense and bolstering Ukraine could cost Europe’s major powers $3.1 trillion over the next 10 years. 

Uranium Crunch 

Several countries have said they plan to triple their nuclear power capacity — to help power new data centers for AI, among other things — such that global uranium demand is expected to double by 2040. Concerns about supply are exacerbated by the fact that Kazakhstan, one of the world’s largest producers of uranium, has lately been selling more of it to Russia and China. Canada, Australia, and Namibia are the other nations that currently produce the most uranium. 

Notably, Cigar Lake, Canada has the largest uranium mine in the world, and produces the highest-grade uranium — since 2014, the site has mined 105 million pounds of the radioactive metal. (An egg-sized amount of uranium fuel can generate as much electric power as 88 tons of coal.) For historical context, this Visual Capitalist graphic shows cumulative uranium production between 1945-2022. 

As of 2023 

As of 2022

Orange Juice 

After rising pretty steadily in 2023 and 2024, the price of frozen orange juice has dropped 30 percent since January 1: 

In Person 

In-person socializing has decreased for all age groups since 2012: 

That’s Fast 

When Uganda’s 24-year-old Jacob Kiplimo triumphantly crossed the finish line last week in Barcelona and broke the world record for the half marathon (13.1 miles), he became the first person to do so in less than 57 minutes. His time of 56:42 — 4:20 minutes per mile — was a 48 second improvement on the prior record, the greatest single improvement in the men’s half marathon in history. 

Source: rosasociatta / Instagram 

Kiplomo ran three miles to school every day as a child at an altitude of 6,200 feet. 

On the Horizon

Mike PeQueen: Wednesday’s release of the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting could provide insight into where rates are headed, but the ongoing tariff mini-series in Washington D.C. will likely dominate financial news. 

Data & Dialogue About the Economy



The Fact Pack is a monthly business e-report co-authored by Mike PeQueen of Hightower Las Vegas and John Restrepo of RCG Economics, which combines important metrics relevant to business decision makers and financial commentary on the current issues facing the economy.

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