It has been a week since the Conference Board reported that current condition consumer confidence in March dropped to the lowest level in 10 years. 

As of March 2025 

The future conditions index (which measures consumer expectations for income, business, and job prospects) marked the lowest reading in 12 years. 

Economists at the board noted that March’s fall in confidence was primarily driven by consumers over 55 years old and, but also by those between 35 and 55 years old. The decline was relatively consistent across income groups, except for households earning more than $125,000 a year. 

As of March 2025 

The outlook for the stock market also slid, with just 37.4 percent of respondents expecting higher equity prices in the next year — a 10-percentage point drop from February and the first time the view turned negative since late 2023. Less than half (44.5 percent) said they expected stock prices to drop, up 11 percentage points from February and approximately 22 percentage points more than November 2024. 

Expectations of higher prices over the next 12-months rose 6.2 percent in March, up from 5.8 percent in February. 

Consumers’ assessments of current business conditions were generally less positive in March. 

• 17.7 percent said conditions were “good,” down from 19.1 percent in February. 

• 16.6 percent said business conditions were “bad,” up from 14.8 percent. 

The view on the labor market — defined as those expecting more jobs to be available — dipped to 16.7 percent from 18.8 percent in February, and the ration of those expecting fewer jobs rose to 28.5 percent from 26.6 percent in February. 

Consumers’ assessments of their Family’s Expected Financial Situation weakened to a 2½-year low. 

As of March 2025 

The monthly Consumer Confidence Survey® is based on real-time consumer insights and market research on 36 million consumers.  

CPE and Inflation 

The core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index — aka consumer spending — showed a 0.4 percent increase in February, the biggest gain since January 2024, pushing the 12-month inflation rate to 2.8 percent, per the Commerce Department. 

• Shelter costs rose 0.3. percent. 

• The price of goods rose 0.2 percent. 

• The price of recreational goods and vehicles increased 0.5 percent. 

• Gasoline costs dipped 0.8 percent. 

• Services prices were up 0.4 percent. 

Households shaved spending and saved more: The personal saving rate increased to 4.6 percent, the highest since June 2024. 

Las Vegas Visitors 

File under: Context matters. 

Surprise and dismay might be expected to follow a quick glance at the topline year-over-year March stats for Las Vegas visitor volume, convention attendance, hotel occupancy, and average price per room — if one did not bother to read the explanatory notes by the team at the Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority (LVCVA): 

As of March 2025 

The substantial effect of the Superbowl, convention cycles (some companies rotate their annual conventions between major cities), and two big expos being held in January or February rather than March prompted us to check March 2024 numbers. 

Visitors were up 4.2 percent over March 2023, but: 

• Convention attendance was down 37.2 percent (with a note that the month lacked a once-every-three-years money-maker: the once- CONEXPO‐CON/AGG tradeshow, which brought 142,000 conventioneers in 2022). 

• Hotel RevPAR (revenue per available room) was down 19.2 percent. 

• Average daily room prices were down 16.4 percent. 

The back-to-back March slumps prompted us check 2024 vs. 2023 annual stats.  

Hotel Occupancy 

• 2024: 83.6 percent 

• 2023: 83.5 percent 

Average Daily Rate (ADR): 

• 2024: $193.16 

• 2023: $191 

Revenue Per Available Room (RevPAR): 

• 2024: $161, a 1.1 percent increase from 2023.

• 2023: $160 

LVCVA noted that hotel room inventory decreased by 2.6 percent in 2024 due to the implosion of the Tropicana and the temporary closure of The Mirage. 

Finally, here’s the breakdown of where visitors hailed from in 2024: 

Seasonal Swings 

Seasonal sales swings in home sales have been increasing — without a surge in distressed sales. 

The below Calculated Risk graph shows the month-to-month change in the NSA Case-Shiller National index since 1987 (through January 2025). The seasonal pattern was smaller back in the ’90s and early ’00s and increased once the bubble burst.  

The seasonal swings declined following the bust, however the pandemic price surge changed the month-over-month pattern: 

As of January 2024 

The graph below shows the seasonal factors for the Case-Shiller National index since 1987. The factors started to change near the peak of the bubble, and really increased during the bust since normal sales followed the regular seasonal pattern – and distressed sales happened all year.

The swings in the seasonal factors were decreasing following the bust but have increased again recently – this time without a surge in distressed sales. 

As of January 2024 

Cars 

The U.S. last year imported roughly half the vehicles sold so Trump’s surtax on autos — and major auto parts — have economists and industry analysts weighing the implications. 

Bloomberg Economics, using a Fed frame of analysis, estimated a GDP hit of 0.2 percent and an increase in core price levels by 0.1 percent. 

Illuminating bar graph: 

As of 2024 

Taking Stock 

Foreign investors held $18.45 trillion in U.S. corporate stocks as of the end of 2024. This Visual Capitalist graph provides an at-a-glance breakdown of which global regions own the most: 

I Want to Ride My Bicycle 

With a population of 18.3 million, the Netherlands is the 69th-most-populous country in the world. Yet with 23.9 million bicycles in the country, Holland contains quite a few more bikes than people. It’s widely considered the most bicycle-friendly country on Earth, as 43% of the population rides at least once per day. Amsterdam in particular has been deemed the bike capital of the world, with one expert estimating that more than 60% of all trips in the city center take place on two wheels. So says a student blog at a Netherlands university. 

As of 2025

On the Horizon

Mike PeQueen: Now that Goldman Sachs has raised the odds of a recession in 2025 to 35% everyone will be watching Friday’s employment report for signs of labor market weakness. 

Data & Dialogue About the Economy



The Fact Pack is a monthly business e-report co-authored by Mike PeQueen of Hightower Las Vegas and John Restrepo of RCG Economics, which combines important metrics relevant to business decision makers and financial commentary on the current issues facing the economy.

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