As Americans not living under rocks or in bunkers are aware, the House last month passed $5.3 trillion in tax cuts with some offsets (aka revenue increases) resulting in a $3 trillion spending bill. The price tag will be closer to $5 trillion if the measure is made permanent. 

Most news outlets are reporting that the Senate is unlikely to fully debate the bill in time to vote by President Trump’s preferred deadline of Independence Day — giving voters ample time to absorb the numbers and get in arguments over the merits and money. 

As of 6/16/2025 

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that by Fiscal Year 2054 the bill would: 

• Increase debt by $15 trillion as written, or $31 trillion if made permanent 

• Increase debt to 172 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as written, or 190 percent of GDP if made permanent 

• Increase deficits to 8.4 percent of GDP as written, or 9.6 percent of GDP if made permanent 

• Increase interest costs to 6.0 percent of GDP as written, or 6.6 percent of GDP if made permanent 

CBO graphs: 

As of 6/16/2025 

(Note: Debt could rise even higher with heightened interest rates.) 

As of 6/16/2025 

The hard deadline for passage is early August, when the Treasury Department predicts the federal budget will hit the debt ceiling. We are certain no Fact Pack readers need to be told that a big, beautiful debt ceiling increase is part of the bill. 

Beneficiaries 

In case you were wondering who is happiest about OBBBA: 

As of June 2025 

Consumer Sentiment 

The preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index for June rose 8.3 points to 60.5, above the 53.5 consensus. Consumer expectations rose to 58.4 vs. a forecast of 49.0. 

Fact Pack co-publisher and HighTower partner Mike PeQueen’s take: 

The improvement suggests American consumers have — for the moment — recovered from the shock and aftershocks of substantially higher tariffs announced by President Trump in April. 

As of 6/13/2025 

Shadow Banking Shot 

Loans from U.S. commercial banks to non-bank financial institutions have more than doubled since 2020, exceeding $1.25 trillion.  

Source: The Economist As of 5/23/25 

Why does this matter? Fact Pack co-publisher Mike PeQueen: 

The increase is notable because entanglement between traditional banks and so-called “shadow banking” entities increases systemic risk. One of the nation’s darkest economic eras — the stock market crash of 1929 — was ushered in by an increase in securities transactions that placed a large share of the wealth of the U.S. under the control of relatively few financiers. 

Nevada Infrastructure 

The American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) has released its 2025 Nevada Infrastructure Report Card and the Silver State’s final grade is a C+. 

Excerpts from the executive summary: 

As Nevada grows, the existing infrastructure is becoming taxed, and new facilities are needed across the entire state. Geographically, Nevada is the seventh largest state in land area, but 32nd largest in population, with over 90% of the state’s residents in Las Vegas and Reno. 

… 

The state’s largest city, Las Vegas, has grown rapidly over the past 25 years, meaning the city tends to house some of the state’s newest infrastructure systems and has a larger share of infrastructure versus other areas of the state. In contrast, other areas, including Reno, Elko, Ely and Tonopah, are home to older and aging infrastructure systems. However, these areas are also steadily growing and require both new construction and regular maintenance to keep up with the community’s needs. 

The report is comprehensive (and can be viewed here) so we’re highlighting just one item of note: 

As of 2024 

(The 2025 Report Card on Nevada’s Infrastructure is the fourth edition since 2007. It covers eight categories – Aviation, Bridges, Dams, Drinking Water, Energy, Public Parks, Roads, and Wastewater. Nevada’s infrastructure grade has improved from a C in 2018 to a C+ in 2025.) 

The Grid  

One of our favorite newsletters — The Daily Shot from the team at the Wall Street Journal — included this interesting graphic in yesterday’s missive: 

The source article notes that the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) tallies and reports U.S. electricity generation in a couple of different ways to help Americans get their heads around the intricacies of the nation’s electric grid: 

• Monthly net generation for every grid-connected power plant with at least 1 megawatt (MW) of nameplate capacity 

• Hourly net generation reported by local and regional balancing authorities in the Lower 48 states 

The two sets of reports reflect different generating units — and the captured data is tied to authority and governance (which entities are responsible for balancing supply and demand at a regional or local level — such as the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) or Southwest Power Pool, along with smaller authorities in cities and states. 

Read more about EIA’s methodologies and data here. 

Natural Gas Reserves 

Natural gas storage capacity is up over 2024, according to new data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) and published in the Underground Natural Gas Working Storage Capacity report). Highlights: 

• Underground working natural gas storage capacity in the lower 48 states increased in 2024 (the EIA calculate natural gas storage capacity in two ways: demonstrated peak capacity and working gas design capacity). 

• In 2024, demonstrated peak capacity rose 1.7 percent, or 70 billion cubic feet (Bcf), to 4,277 Bcf. 

• Working gas design capacity increased slightly by 0.1 percent or 3 Bcf.

As of 2024 

(Note: Demonstrated peak capacity is the sum of the largest volume of working gas stored in each storage field during the previous five-year period, regardless of when the peaks occurred. Demonstrated peak capacity is typically less than working gas design capacity because it relates to actual usage rather than potential capacity based on the design of the facility.) 

The largest increase in demonstrated peak capacity was in the Mountain region — which includes Nevada — where colder-than-normal temperatures during the 2023–24 winter required more working gas in storage to meet winter demand, resulting in increased injection activity during the subsequent months. 

As of 2024 

Oil Chokepoint 

In a 2024 edition of Fact Pack, amid assorted instances of regional and global instability, we noted that oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz, located between Oman and Iran, was averaging 20 million barrels per day (b/d) — the equivalent of about 20 percent of global petroleum liquids consumption.  

In the first quarter of 2025, total oil flows through the Strait remained relatively flat compared with 2024, for those tracking tanker volume. 



Five-year trend table and graphs from the U.S. Energy Information Administration: 

As of Q1 2025 

As of Q1 2025 

People 

Just over two centuries ago, the planet crossed the 1 billion population mark. Earth has come a long way since, and we found the following blurbs from the team at Interesting Facts of greatest interest: 

• Although the Earth’s hemispheres are equal in geographic size, the Earth’s population is not divided similarly. Roughly 90 percent of Earth’s population lives in the Northern Hemisphere (which to be fair to the Southern Hemisphere also accounts for most of the planet’s landmass). The Northern Hemisphere is made up of 39.3 percent land (the rest is ocean) and contains many of the world’s most-populated cities, while the Southern Hemisphere only is 19.1 percent land. 

• Earth’s continents are similarly unequal in population distribution — it’s estimated that 60 percent of Earth’s population (4.7 billion people) lives in Asia. Made up of 48 countries, Asia is also home to the two most populous nations in the world, China and India. China is estimated to currently have 1.44 billion people living in the country, while India is not far behind with an estimated 1.40 billion residents. Together, the two countries account for more than half of Asia’s total population. 

• California is the most-populated state in the U.S., but Texas is home to the most populated ZIP code — 77449 has a population of 128,294 people and belongs to Katy, Texas, a suburb located 30 miles west of Houston. (Five of the top 10 ZIP codes by population are in the Lone Star State.) 

• In the grasslands of Nebraska near the South Dakota border lies the municipality of Monowi. The town’s sole resident is Elsie Eiler, a woman in her 80s who is the town’s mayor, clerk, librarian, and treasurer. Monowi is an incorporated town, so Eiler receives state funding for municipal road work. However, she must raise her own funds for the town’s taxes to pay for the street lighting and water. 

• Women account for 54.5 percent of the total population in Nepal, with roughly 2 million more women than men in the South Asian country.  

On the Horizon

Mike PeQueen: This week’s economic reports via MarketWatch:. 

Data & Dialogue About the Economy



The Fact Pack is a monthly business e-report co-authored by Mike PeQueen of Hightower Las Vegas and John Restrepo of RCG Economics, which combines important metrics relevant to business decision makers and financial commentary on the current issues facing the economy.

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