Labor productivity rose in 20 of 31 selected service-providing industries in 2024, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported today. Output rose in 21, and hours worked increased in 13. Productivity ranged from a 9.6-percent decline in amusement parks and arcades to a 9.1. percent growth in travel arrangement and reservation services. 

Unit labor costs increased in 25 of the 31 selected industries in 2024. Radio and television broadcasting had the highest increase in unit labor costs (+16.5 percent). The 10 largest industries by number of workers represent 79.9 percent of all workers in the selected service-providing industries. 

Among these 10 industries, productivity growth was greatest in general freight trucking, long-distance (+6.9 percent) after rising slightly in 2023. Automotive repair and maintenance posted the steepest productivity decline (-6.1 percent). BLS graphs (which also can be viewed here): 

Source: BLS As of 2024 

Labor Productivity rose in two-thirds of selected service-providing industries in 2024. Eleven industries had growth in output but declines in hours worked. Productivity exceeded 8.0-percent growth in two industries: travel arrangement and reservation services (+9.1 percent) and medical and diagnostic laboratories (+8.4 percent). 

Output grew 3.1 percent in travel arrangement and reservation services and 5.0 percent in medical and diagnostic laboratories while hours worked decreased in both industries. Water, sewage and other systems; amusement parks and arcades; and air transportation posted the largest increases in hours worked, resulting in decreasing productivity. 

Source: BLS As of 2024 

Unit Labor costs rose in 25 of 31 of selected service-providing Industries in 2024. Both productivity and unit labor costs increased in 14. 

(Note from Fact Pack co-publisher and economist John Restrepo: Unit labor costs reflect total labor costs required to produce a unit of output. Unit labor costs increase when hourly compensation growth exceeds productivity growth. Changes in labor productivity serve to counter the impact of changes in hourly compensation on unit labor costs.) 

Hourly compensation growth was greater than or equal to productivity growth in all 14 industries. Seven industries had growth in unit labor costs that exceeded 10.0 percent, led by radio and television broadcasting (+16.5 percent), newspaper publishers (+16.2 percent), postal service (+15.7 percent), and periodical publishers (+15.3 percent). 

The largest declines in unit labor costs were in travel arrangement and reservation services (-7.7 percent), wireless telecommunications carriers (-5.3 percent), and general freight trucking, long-distance (-4.5 percent). Hourly compensation rose in 28 of 31 of the industries measured.  

Source: BLS As of 2024 

As for recent business cycle trends (the 5 years from 2019 to 2024), labor productivity increased in 24 of 31 BLS-selected service-providing industries. (Note: BLS annual percent changes for periods of more than one year are annualized average rates of change over the entire period, or a compound annual growth rate.) 

The highest productivity gains from 2019 to 2024 were in cable and other subscription programming (+8.8 percent per year) and travel arrangement and reservation services (+7.5 percent). The largest annual declines in productivity during this period occurred in warehousing and storage (-7.4 percent) and couriers and messengers (-5.8 percent). 

Output increased in 21 of 31 selected service-providing industries from 2019 to 2024. The highest increases in output during this period were in software publishers (+8.9 percent per year) and gambling (+7.6 percent). The steepest annual declines in output during this period occurred in postal service (-4.4 percent) and wired telecommunications carriers (-3.5 percent).  

The chart below compares the three primary elements of three productivity periods (1987-2024, 2007-2019, and 2019-2024): 

Lots of Shiny New Homes for Sale 

The inventory of new single-family homes for sale in the U.S. is at the highest number since 2007, in part because of a record “pile-up” in the South, according to a June 25th Wolf Richter write-up for WOLF STREET. New single-family homes for sale at all stages of construction rose to 502,000 in May, the most since November 2007, when (as many Fact Pack readers may reluctantly recall) inventory was decreasing during the housing market bust. Inventory has been above 490,000 for seven months, the biggest number since November 2007, according to data from the Census Bureau. 

In the period before the housing bust that led to the Great Recession, new home inventories reached present-day level in October 2005. Over the next three years, oversupply and lack of demand caused market chaos, and unsustainable instability in and among homebuilders. 

Present-day drops in demand for new homes is not yet at a crisis level, and homebuilders are cutting prices and offering compelling incentives – especially mortgage-rate buydowns – to capture the attention of buyers looking at above-market prices posted by homeowners trying to sell at a time demand for existing homes at such prices has collapsed in many markets. 

As of May 2025 

The supply of new homes spiked to 9.8 months in May (at the updated and current rate), which may be stressing out the CEOs of homebuilders but also should serve as a salve for the “hot” (aka unaffordable aka overpriced) housing market. In recent quarterly earnings calls, homebuilders across the board were talking about strategically bringing costs down and turning a profit where demand exists. 

Builders have been penciling in losses for gross profit margins for the past two years because they couldn’t find enough short-term ways to get costs downs. However, because gross margins reached high levels during the home-price spike in the period from 2020 to 2022, many homebuilders do have some have wiggle room. 

As of May 2025 

Sales of new homes — only 56,000 contracts were signed in the U.S. in May — were down by 8.2 percent from a year ago, and down by 12.5 percent from May 2019. 

(Reminder: New home sales are tracked by signed contracts, not closings. Some of the above-mentioned deals will fall through before closing and compare to “pending sales” of existing homes, which also are based on signed contracts, not closed sales. April pending sales were down by 32 percent from 2019, reflecting the ongoing decline in demand for existing homes.) 

All in all, for now, compared to existing homes, sales of new homes are still “winning.”  

As of May 2025 

Inventories of completed new single-family houses for sale rose to 115,000 in May, up by 29 percent year-over-year. Again, inventories have been at this level or higher for the seventh month in a row. Sales of completed homes, at 30,000, were unchanged from a year ago, and up by 36 percent from May 2019. 

As of May 2025 

Fact Pack co-publisher and Hightower partner Mike PeQueen on the big homebuilder picture: 

Publicly traded homebuilders have increasingly been revealing their strategies on earnings calls as share prices have declined from mid-October highs. As of May, shares at top builders — Pulte Group, D.R. Horton, Lennar, and KB Home — are down between minus 30 percent and minus 39 percent from fall peaks. 

On average, incentive spending by all publicly traded builders rose to 13.3 percent of revenues between October and May, the highest incentive spending rate since 2009, and up from 8.4 percent in Q2 2023. 

The average sales price per delivered home, which includes all incentives, dropped by 8.7 percent year-over-year, to $389,000 in Q2 of 2025. Compared to Q2 2022 ($483,000), it dropped by 19.5 percent. This Lennar price per home graph illustrates the situation nicely: 

As of May 2025 

All in all, gross profit margin on new home sales dropped to 17.8 percent in May from the Q2 2023 margin of 22.5 percent, and a margin of 29.5 percent in Q2 2022. 

Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Says… 

“Even seemingly healthy job growth might hide weaknesses in the economy if a large portion of that growth happens in acyclical sectors such as health care and government.” 

So begins a recent write-up by a seasoned economist at the Philly Fed, who like any reasonable analyst factors in the overall national unemployment rate and inflation rate when looking for signs of a coming recession — while also noting that not all sectors grow and shrink in tandem with national averages, such that a deeper dive may result in valuable insights. 

Fact Pack co-publisher Mike PeQueen: 

Procyclical sectors (e.g., construction, manufacturing, professional service) tend to grow with economic expansions, while acyclical sectors (e.g., health care, government, utilities) are less affected by the business cycle and even tend to grow in the early part of recessions, which can mask weakness in the broader economy. 

Remarkably, since 1987, 70 percent of net jobs created during recessions occurred in acyclical sectors, as noted in the write-up by the Philly Fed economist above. 

As of February 2025, procyclical employment growth was weak (0.6 percent) and like levels seen during recessions, and acyclical sectors were driving most employment growth (2.7 percent), indicating a degree of labor market weakness. ​ 

Note: The article referenced here appeared in the Second Quarter 2025 issue of the Philly Fed’s Economic Insights. Download and read the full issue here. 

Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority Says… 

As of May 2025

As of May 2025 

As of May 2025 

As of May 2025 

As of May 2025 

Deutsche Bank Research Says… 

Las Vegas Strip gross gaming revenue (GGR) of $713.8 million in May was down 3.9 percent year over year (Y/Y). For the Q2 25 period, Strip GGR was down 3.4 percent Y/Y. 

LV Locals GGR of $278.3 million in May was up 20 basis points year over year. May slot revenue of $220.1 million was down 4.2 percent year over year, after factoring in hold (down 60 bps year over year) which offset a 5.2 percent Y/Y increase in slot handle. 

For the Q2 2025 period, LV Locals GGR was up 1.7 percent Y/Y. 

Special Formula 

F1: The Movie, a $200 million+ production cost Apple original film, is now in theatres, and Brad Pitt in the role of retired F1 driver Sonny Hayes, who comes back to help a struggling team, is the draw Formula One owner Liberty Media is betting on to continue its cash cow success. 

Filmed on real F1 race weekends and set up with its own pit garage, along with a hospitality team and F1-official uniforms, the movie is being billed as an up-close look at the magic of F1 through a cast and crew with an unprecedented level of access, according to news reports including this Sherwood News write-up. 

Viewership spiked (and has been up) since 2020 per this helpful Chartr graph: 

As of 2024 

Formula One and Liberty Media are near the end of their broadcast rights deal with ESPN, and it is hoped the F1 movie, social media hype, and a few Brad Pitt-attended and star-studded events will endear the brand in the hearts of Americans. 

This Chartr graph shows how F1 money was made last year: 

As of F1 fiscal year 2024 

For revenue context, the NFL brought in nearly seven times more than F1 in 2024, and NASCAR makes $1.1 billion plus each year. Nothing more needs to be known to understand why Liberty decided to bet big on its recent Las Vegas grand prix, investing $500 million and self-promoting rather than outsourcing the PR work. 

Last year’s LV-based F1 race brought in $934 million in revenue, a definite win for the brand, and social media influence has been a help, as well: 

As of 2024

F1 is poised to be a pop culture phenomenon, thanks to kids persuading parents to pony up for up for Lego and Mattel toy cars and driver figurines; exhibitions and branded games that attract players of all ages; and VIPs dropping $5,000 plus on F1’s “Paddock Club” experience with tours of the track and pit lanes. 

Uber Tipping Point 

Roughly 20 percent of Uber riders tip their drivers, according to a CBS interview with CEO Dara Khosrowshahi, who casually said you should only tip if you “got your money’s worth and then some.” No official word on whether Uber’s 7 million plus drivers agree, but research by Columbia Business School found recently that Uber’s ever-shifting algorithms had in effect cut driver pay on billions of trips. 

Iran’s Oil Buyers and Global Reserves 

With 303 billion barrels in reserves, Venezuela leads globally, but Saudi Aramco pumps roughly 11 million barrels of oil per day, equal to about 10 percent of the global total. 

In May, Iran’s exports of crude oil totaled 1.8 million per day. Overall, a third of the world’s oil is produced in the Gulf region. 

As of 2023 

The world’s top 10 countries hold 1.5 trillion barrels in proven oil reserves. 

In 2023, 89 percent of Iran’s oil exports went to China, a big increase from 25 percent in 2017. 

The urge followed renewed U.S. sanctions in 2018, which isolated Iran from most global oil buyers. 

Recently, amid escalating tensions, including the U.S. bombing Iranian nuclear sites and Iran launching missile strikes on U.S. military bases in Qatar and Iraq, talk of China’s oil supply being at risk is making headlines. 

As of 2023 

On the Horizon

Data & Dialogue About the Economy



The Fact Pack is a monthly business e-report co-authored by Mike PeQueen of Hightower Las Vegas and John Restrepo of RCG Economics, which combines important metrics relevant to business decision makers and financial commentary on the current issues facing the economy.

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