Nonfarm payrolls in the U.S. saw growth of 73,000 for July, above the June total of 14,000 but well below all official estimates, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). May and June totals were revised down by a combined 258,000 from estimated, announced levels. 

Source: CNBC As of 8/1/2025 

Health care — the biggest job gains occurred in ambulatory health care services (+34,000) and  hospitals (+16,000) — and social assistance together accounted about 94 percent of July job growth. The federal government continued to shed jobs (-12,000). 

The BLS release prompted many market watchers and TV talking heads to say the Federal Reserve is now more likely to lower interest rates when it meets in September, with the caveat that preliminary August job numbers will come prior to the meeting, on Friday, Sept. 5. 

For those wondering about Bureau of Labor Statistics jobs numbers and revisions, Fact Pack co-publisher and economist John Restrepo explains:

The two BLS surveys generate monthly sample-based estimates of employment that have a margin of error (MOE), as all such approximations do. The BLS establishment survey has a smaller MOE when it comes to month-over-month change because of its relatively narrow scope and much larger sample size. The household survey has a broader scope — it includes self-employed workers whose businesses are unincorporated, unpaid family workers, agricultural workers, and private household workers, all of whom are excluded in the establishment survey. 

In the two months after BLS estimates are released, its establishment survey is updated with additional information not available at the initial time of publication — including data from additional respondents — and resulting in two revisions to the initial job growth number. 

I’m often asked whether either BLS survey includes undocumented immigrants. It is likely that both do, as neither is designed or intended to identify the legal status of workers. The establishment survey collects no data on the legal status of workers, whereas the household survey does include a few questions related to the legal status of foreign-born workers. 

Table A-7 in the monthly BLS release contains data collected on foreign-born workers: 

Source: BLS As of July 2025 

Click here for more information on the monthly BLS revisions. 

As for wages in July, average hourly earnings increased 0.3 percent meeting the estimate. The year-over-year gain of 3.9 percent was slightly higher than expected. Trend: 

Source: CNBC As of 8/1/2025 

Immigration Effect 

Penn Wharton is out with a policy study on the potential mass deportation of unauthorized workers and how it could be expected to affect economic metrics including GDP and wages, including those of low-skill and high-skill workers. 

The research team ran two policy scenarios — 4-year policy where 10 percent of unauthorized immigrants are removed annually over four years (2025 – 2028), with unauthorized immigration returning to baseline levels in 2029, and a 10-year policy where 10 percent of unauthorized immigrants are removed each year for a period of 10 years, ultimately removing all unauthorized immigrants from the U.S. and preventing the entry of new unauthorized immigrants thereafter. 

A few highlights from the findings: 

• Authorized low-skilled workers could see their wages increase — but only if the deportation policy is permanently sustained after 4 years. 

• Taking into account new funds provided in the 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act, Penn Wharton estimates that permanent mass deportation would cost $900 billion over the first 10 years. 

• Budget: The 4-year policy would increase primary deficits by about $270 billion before economic feedback effects and $350 billion with economic feedback effects. 

• The 10-year policy would cost about $862 billion before economic feedback effects and $987 billion with economic feedback effects. 

• By 2034, the 4-year policy reduces GDP by 1.0 percent; the 10-year policy reduces it by 3.3 percent. 

• By 2054, the 4-year policy reduces real GDP by 1.0 percent; the 10-year policy reduces it by 4.9 percent. 

• Per-capita economic variables also mostly decline, including a fall in the average wage of 0.5 percent (4-year policy) and 1.7 percent (10-year policy). Output per capita also falls between 0.5 percent and 1.1 percent. 

Important note: In both scenarios, immigration laws concerning authorized workers remain unchanged. Sample table from the study: 

Screenshot of a graph included in the Penn Wharton Study 

Projections as of 7/28/2025 

Like Sands Through the Hourglass… 

Counting humans and predicting trends has been a thing since English  statistician and businessman John Graunt published an analysis of the City of London’s record of births and deaths in 1662, followed by the creation of the first data-driven probability matrix of survival and mortality for different ages, and insights into urban-rural migration. 

Fast forward 350 years, when demographers Toshiko Kaneda and Carl Haub teamed up to estimate how many people had lived and died in the history of Ever. Using data from the UN, and the 200,000 years leading up to 2022 as the timeline parameter for human existence, they concluded that about 109 billion humans have come and gone. 

Infographic Source: Our World in Data 

As of 8/10/2022 

In 1900, there were fewer than 2 billion people on the planet. In 2022, there were 7.59 billion — equivalent to 6.8 percent of all people who lived during the 200,000-year span in the study.  

The screen shot below is borrowed from an Our World in Data time-lapse graphic showing a peak global population of 10.29 billion in 2082, after which the number of humans begins to slowly decrease. 

Big Media Move 

Fact Pack subscribers who become irate when they read a regional news story tilted to the left side of the political spectrum in one or more ways will be happy to learn that The New York Post is launching The California Post in early 2026. 

Like its eastern counterpart, its newsroom will cover a blend of local news, entertainment, sports, and politics with the Post’s traditionally irreverent and often populist vibe. The outlet will publish a daily print edition aligned with the usual website and digital platforms and operate out of Los Angeles. News Corp veteran Nick Papps, who has served as West Coast correspondent for close to three years, will serve as editor-in-chief under New York Post editor Keith Poole. 

For those wondering, Los Angeles is already the second-largest source of New York Post readers with 3.5 million monthly unique digital visitors. The Los Angeles Times has been struggling, cutting 115 staffers in January of last year after cutting 74 in 2023, per Axios. 

We end this advisory with a fun note from Fact Pack editor and media history geek Elizabeth Thompson: The New York Post — the nation’s oldest daily newspaper — was founded by founded by Alexander Hamilton in 1801. 

Source: The New York Post 

Big 50 

SpaceX tops the list of 31 private companies based in the U.S. that are among the 50 most valuable firms in the world. China hosts eight: 

As of July 2025 

The U.S. hosts seven private corporations in the top 10 for valuation: 

As of July 2025

The Venn diagram for the 10 firms with the highest valuation and the 10 most successful “unicorn” companies on the planet — defined as a firm in its first 5-years (aka “startup”) with a valuation greater than $1 billion — is two overlapping circles. Simply put, they are one and the same, a scenario that once would have been unthinkable. 

The team at CB Insights notes that as of July, the 1,276.“unicorn” firms in the world have a total valuation of $4,421 billion (for those about to do math and count zeroes, that’s $4,421,000,000,000). 

Famous former unicorns include Airbnb, Facebook, and Google. 

Source: Interesting Facts 

On the Horizon

This week’s Marketwatch calendar: 

Data & Dialogue About the Economy



The Fact Pack is a monthly business e-report co-authored by Mike PeQueen of Hightower Las Vegas and John Restrepo of RCG Economics, which combines important metrics relevant to business decision makers and financial commentary on the current issues facing the economy.

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