As we grapple with the fact that it is already December, we begin this week’s Fact Pack with the defining national and Nevada economic story of the last two months: the record-breaking 43-day federal government shutdown (ended Nov. 12) — which created a “data blackout” for key indicators like GDP and PCE — and its aftermath.

All three of the U of M Consumer Sentiment Indexes for the U.S. were substantially down year-over-year in November over the same month the prior year:

Does any of it matter? Fact Pack publisher and Hightower wealth management advisor Mike PeQueen:

Despite the disruption caused by the shutdown and a dip in consumer sentiment, the economic activity of the U.S. consumer has showed surprising strength, including setting a new online spending record of approximately $12 billion—roughly 10 percent more than in 2024—during Black Friday/Cyber Week.

The temporary funding bill that ended the shutdown and furloughs for 900,000 federal workers is valid through Jan. 30, 2026. Delayed economic data releases (Q3 GDP advance estimate, Oct. PCE) should appear soon.

Panic in Utah?

Nevada’s neighbor to the northeast saw a notable decrease in consumer sentiment during the shutdown: The state’s index plunged 8 percent in late November, largely attributed to the fact that Utah has a high ratio of federal employees.

That said, taxable sales in the state continued to grow (3.6 percent), outpacing inflation (3.0 percent), showing that actual spending did not align with a generally gloomy outlook.

Young Folks Job Outlook

U of M data shows younger Americans (age 18 to 34) are nearly as worried about job losses as they were in 2012:

Fed Policy

As of Monday, Dec. 1, markets were pricing in a 79 percent chance of another interest rate cut in December because of a sporadically cooling labor market.

Reminder: August CPI (the latest reliable data due to shutdown delays) was 2.9 percent YoY, with monthly inflation showing a slight uptick (0.4 percent).

NV Gaming Win Surge / Tourism Decline

Statewide gaming revenue in October rose 5 percent year-over-year (YoY) to $1.35 billion, largely driven by a 70 percent spike in Baccarat revenue. The data suggests “high-end” and high-roller play remains robust even though mass-market tourism is softening.

Las Vegas visitor volume dropped in October dropped 4.4 percent YoY, marking the 13th consecutive month without significant growth.

(Editor’s note: “Ballad of a Small Player,” a 2025 Netflix film starring Colin Farrell as a man entangled in a high-stakes baccarat web in Macau, includes numerous camera shots of Las Vegas resorts. The British black comedy received mixed reviews, but it is worth seeing for memorable scenes, riveting characters, and a standout performance by Tilda Swinton.)

F1 Las Vegas Impact

The November F1 event reportedly generated near $1 billion in economic impact. Some news reports highlight a “K-shaped” benefit: Luxury properties (including MGM and Wynn) saw near-full occupancy, while small businesses and locals faced disruptions.

Notably, ticket prices were cut by 30 percent this year to boost local attendance.

Housing Market Shift

The Southern Nevada median single-family home price was $474,370 in October, a 0.2 percent drop from October 2024, with fewer homes selling compared to 2024. In contrast, Northern Nevada, including Carson City, Douglas, Lyon, and Washoe counties, saw median home prices increase, signaling a somewhat more stable market. 

Home value growth graph for the Las Vegas Valley:

As of December 2025

In 2022, value growth was 25.7 percent, one of the strongest years on record. By 2023, values fell -8.9 percent — only to bounce back to an increase of 6.6 percent in 2024.

In 2025, growth almost flattened (0.9 percent YTD). The up-and-down cycle reflects how sensitive the city is to national and local shifts.

(Access more data from the home value YoY growth graph of the LV metro here.)

U.S. Housing

November housing data for the U.S. indicated a shift toward a more strategic buyer’s market.” Inventory was up 20 percent YoY, giving some buyers more leverage.

Prices are still relatively stable with a U.S. median of $450,000 in October — but rents have plateaued or dipped slightly, seeing a 1.9 percent drop in some metro market reports.

Energy and AI in AZ

Arizona hosted the Western Governors’ Association (WGA) 2025 Winter Meeting in late November, and the focus was “Superabundance.” Governors discussed the exploding electricity demand from AI data centers and the need to fast-track energy infrastructure across the Mountain West.

Nevada Gov. Joe Lombardo did not attend because the meeting took place on November 20–21, when he was occupied with a special legislative session in Nevada.

Data Scraping Problems

Amazon and Perplexity AI are (still) locked in a legal battle over data scraping, as are Reddit and Perplexity. Both cases could set precedents for how AI companies access proprietary content.

The Reddit accusation: Reddit filed a federal lawsuit against Perplexity and three data-scraping firms, alleging they unlawfully harvested content from Reddit’s forums to train Perplexity’s AI. The complaint asserts that these firms circumvented Reddit’s data protection measures and resold the stolen data to Perplexity without authorization or compensation.

Notably, Reddit claims it created a “trap” by publishing a hidden “test post” that was only accessible via Google’s search engine. Reddit alleges that within hours, the content of this private post appeared in Perplexity’s search results.

The broader issue: who controls the “agentic web” and whether AI agents can freely operate and transact across different platforms.

Web scraping is part of the alternative data market, worth $4.9 billion in 
2023 and set to grow at a 28 percent annual rate through 2032. The web scraping software market alone hit $1.01 billion in 2024 and is projected to more than double to $2.49 billion by 2032.

Source: Apify As of January 2025

Source: Apify As of January 2025

Another Workforce Upheaval

The traditional consulting firm structure in which companies employ thousands of junior-level employees and thin out the ranks with a “move up or get out” achievement and promotion culture appears to be on the verge of a shift, according to a recent piece in Financial Times.

Some firms are moving toward a so-called “obelisk” structure, with more selective hiring, fewer org chart layers, and reduced reliance on junior workers. Others are shifting to an “hourglass” — thinner in middle-management, as AI automates routine tasks, while retaining senior and junior staff.

Worries about the change include a possible “needle” structure, where new hires are only brought on board as an apprentice or trainee for outgoing partners. The general downside: a reduction in the “good” jobs many college graduates had in mind when they enrolled, along with lower salaries for available slots.

“Starter salaries” at consultancies are flat for a third year with average undergraduate packages sitting near $140,000, according to data reported by FT, though MBA packages remain in the $270,000 to $285,000 range.

The FT article notes the shift is also likely to start occurring at partnership-based professional services including law, accountancy, and financial services.

The Eurozone remains near stagnation levels in most economic metrics. France is facing severe budget cuts to manage its deficit, with forecasts of slower growth extending into 2026.

Nevada’s Place in Sports Stadium Lore

The in-the-works $1.5 billion Oakland A’s ballpark and Allegiant Stadium both were mentioned in a New Yorker feature on the trend toward luxury seating in big-money stadiums, with an author explanation of the value of Vegas to non-Nevada readers:

…as gambling has become increasingly available to anyone with a phone, [Las Vegas] has sought to reinvent itself. Forty million annual visitors offer a large pool of potential ticket buyers, some of whom may prefer a ballgame to a show, especially if their home-town team is playing during their visit…

Of General Interest

From our reading this week:

• Some cities made a big bet on housing for millennials — but forgot they might one day have kids (Vox)

• A new mega-food waste processor is creating compost — and renewable energy (Chicago Sun-Times)

On the Horizon

Marketwatch calendar:

Data & Dialogue About the Economy



The Fact Pack is a monthly business e-report co-authored by Mike PeQueen of Hightower Las Vegas and John Restrepo of RCG Economics, which combines important metrics relevant to business decision makers and financial commentary on the current issues facing the economy.

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