The U.S. labor market added 147,000 nonfarm payrolls in June, and the “headline” (U-6) unemployment rate changed little at 4.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported last week. Most gains occurred in state government and health care. Federal government continued to lose jobs. 

Source: BLS  As of June 2025 

Source: BLS As of June 2025 

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for April was revised up by 11,000, from +147,000 to +158,000, and the change for May was revised up by 5,000, from +139,000 to +144,000. With these revisions, employment in April and May combined is 16,000 higher than previously reported. (Note: Monthly revisions result from additional reports received from businesses and government agencies since the last published estimates and from the recalculation of seasonal factors.)  

Average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 8 cents, or 0.2 percent, to $36.30 in June. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 3.7 percent. Average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees rose by 9 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $31.24.  

In June, the number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) increased by 190,000 to 1.6 million, largely offsetting a decrease in the prior month. The long-term unemployed accounted for 23.3 percent of all unemployed people. 

The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.5 million, changed little in June. These individuals would have preferred full-time employment but were working part time because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs. 

Total unemployed plus persons marginally attached to the labor force plus total employed part time for economic reasons (aka the U-6 rate) from June 1, 2015, to June 1, 2025: 

Source: FRED based on BLS data As of 6/1/2025 

The Market 

As of Monday’s close, the S&P index was up approximately 14.5 percent year-to-date, driven largely by tech and AI-related stocks, and the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note was sitting near 4.45 percent following the strong jobs report. 

Treasury note and mortgage rate trend lines through Q1 2025 for context: 

As of Q1 2025 

Fact Pack co-publisher and Hightower partner Mike PeQueen: 

The Federal Reserve has held its key interest rate steady this year due to uncertainty, but that could change in the second half of the year as The Fed gains clarity about the impact of President Donald Trump’s tariffs. Fed Chair Jerome Powell reiterated his concerns about tariffs in his June 24 testimony before Congress, noting that Trump has yet to finalize tariff levels for dozens of countries. At present, markets are pricing in a likelihood that the Fed will cut its key fed funds rate at its September meeting by a quarter of a point and follow with one more cut by the end of the year, putting the rate at a range of 3.75 to 4 percent. 

I will refrain from Fed forecasting but say it bodes well for the Mountain West, including Nevada, that for the fourth consecutive year, the region is projected to be the fastest growing in the country. Trend data and a recent analysis from the Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute at the University of Utah highlighted that national population growth has slowed, but Mountain West states continue to attract new residents, thanks to (relative) housing affordability compared to New England and the West Coast, along with comparatively more job opportunities and a number of attractive lifestyle amenities.  

Idaho and Montana are leading the population growth pack on a percentage basis, while Arizona and Nevada are adding the largest number of new residents. 

Labor Force Edu 

Calculated Risk is out with data and a graph showing the national unemployment rate by four levels of education (all groups are 25 years and older) through June: 

As of June 2025 

Such data only goes back to 1992 so includes only the three most recent recessions. The trend lines show the undisputable correlation between education level and unemployment rate. The lowest rate in June was for college graduates at 2.5 percent; the highest was for those without a high school degree at 5.8 percent. 

As for composition of the labor force by educational attainment, almost 67 million people (25 and over) in the U.S. labor force have a bachelor’s degree or higher — that’s 45 percent of the labor force, up from 26.2 percent in 1992. 

As of June 2025 

Education by Metro 

WalletHub compared the 150 most populated U.S. metropolitan areas to find the most and least educated. Reno was ranked 92nd, and Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise came in at 118th: 

As of 2024

Top 10: 

As of 2024 

View the full list and methodology here.

Las Vegas Housing Inventory 

New data from Las Vegas REALTORS® (LVR) shows the local housing inventory continuing to rise while home prices returned to their record high. 

LVR reported the median price of existing single-family homes sold in Southern Nevada through its Multiple Listing Service (MLS) during June was $485,000. That’s up 1 percent from the previous month and matches the all-time high set during the first three months of 2025. The median price is up 2.1 percent from June of 2024. 

The median price of local condos and townhomes sold in June was $305,000. That’s down slightly from the previous month but still up 3.4% from June 2024. That’s short of the record high of $315,000 set in October 2024. 

By the end of June, LVR reported 6,992 single-family homes listed for sale without any sort of offer. That’s up 70.0 percent from one year earlier. The 2,564 condos and townhomes listed without offers in June represent an 87.6 percent jump from one year earlier. LVR reported 2,461 existing local homes, condos and townhomes sold in June. Compared to June 2024, sales were down 7.0 percent or homes and down 14.9 percent for condos and townhomes. 

The sales pace in June equates to nearly a four-month housing supply. Last year at this time, Southern Nevada had a two-month housing supply. 

Fact Pack co-publisher and economist John Restrepo: 

Southern Nevada home sales have seen two big swings over the past five years, making forecasting a challenge. In 2024, 31,305 existing local homes, condos and townhomes were sold, an increase from 29,069 in 2023 and the slowest year for sales since 2008. In 2022, the Las Vegas Valley saw 35,584 total sales, following a record year in 2021, when 50,010 total properties were sold.

The latest S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index data for April (released in late June) showed a national year-over-year price gain of 5.1 percent. In the West, Las Vegas saw a 6.5 percent increase, while Phoenix posted a 4.8 percent gain. 

A Word on Nevada Gaming Win 

Following a solid spring, Nevada’s gaming sector posted a modest year-over-year decline in May, as we noted last week when the Nevada Gaming Control Board (GCB) reported statewide casino winnings of $1.28 billion, a 1.5 percent decrease compared to May 2024. The Las Vegas Strip accounted for $715 million of that total, down 2.1 percent from the previous year. 

Despite the slight dip, industry analysts appear unalarmed, many attributing the slight cooldown to a comparison with a record-setting May 2024 and a slightly less favorable event calendar. Year-to-date through May, statewide gaming revenue is up 3.4 percent. 

Baccarat play, always a volatile component of high-end Strip revenue, was notably weaker. In contrast, downtown Las Vegas and the Boulder Strip submarkets showed strength, with revenue increases of 4.5 percent and 3.8 percent, respectively, indicating a healthy locals’ market. 

June’s numbers won’t be released by GCB until late July. We’ll know then whether year-to-date win is on par with the 3.26 percent increase Nevada saw from June 2023 to June 2024. 

State-by-State Gaming Win 

Nevada’s numbers inspired us to check the American Gaming Association’s (AGA) Commercial Gaming Revenue Tracker, which reports state-by-state and nationwide financial performance data with breakdowns for assorted gaming verticals. According to state regulatory data compiled by the AGA, commercial gaming industry earnings from traditional casino games, sports betting, and iGaming was $6.18 billion in April, 5.6 percent higher than April 2024. 

From January to April 2025, commercial gaming revenue in the U.S. totaled $25.11 billion, 6.2 percent ahead of last year’s record pace. 

As of April 2025 

AGA’s three-year trend graph for U.S. commercial gaming: 

As of April 2025 

Of the 37 commercial gaming jurisdictions that were operational a year or more ago and that published complete April data, 30 reported an increase in gaming revenue compared to the previous year. (Note: March and April sports betting revenue was not yet available for Arizona when the AGA posted April numbers.) 

Revenue stats showing how other states compare to Nevada  

As of April 2025 

So-called “land-based” gaming in the U.S. grew 2.4 percent in April. Combined monthly revenue from traditional casino games and retail sports betting reached $4.19 billion. Retail sports betting revenue more than doubled, growing by 128.7 percent. 

Revenue from traditional casino games increased 1.9 percent, and online gaming revenue – aka online sports betting and iGaming – expanded 10.9 percent, reaching $1.98 billion in April.  

Online revenue expansion was primarily driven by iGaming (+32.5 percent), while online sports betting revenue grew 0.7 percent. 

As of April 2025 

In April, traditional casino slot machines and table games across the U.S. generated revenue of $4.14 billion, a 1.9 percent increase from the previous year. Slot machines contributed $3.06 billion, a 2.5 percent increase from April 2024, while table games brought in $761.8 million, down 2.0 percent. (Note: These figures exclude data from Louisiana and Michigan, which only report combined slot and table game revenue.) 

At the state level, 10 out of the 27 states with traditional casino slot machines or table games reported revenue declines compared to April 2024. Indiana (-5.1 percent and Rhode Island (-3.5 percent) led brick and mortar revenue declines, and growth was driven by markets with recent expansions including Illinois, Virginia, and Nebraska. 

For the first four months of the year, combined revenue from casino slot machines and table games totaled $16.61 billion, a 1.3 percent increase over the same period last year. 

As of April 2025 

Land-based and online sportsbooks collectively generated $1.16 billion, up 3.4 percent in revenue across 33 commercial jurisdictions in April (not counting Arizona). 

For the month of April, Americans wagered $12.44 billion on sports, up 8.9 percent year-over-year. Year-to-date commercial sports betting revenue was $5.08 billion, 10.8 percent higher than the same period last year.  

China’s Economy Shows Signs of Uneven Recovery 

Recent data out of Beijing — always to be taken with a grain of Fuzhou Bay salt because local governments inflate figures to meet growth targets, which in turn leads to overestimations of national GDP, but still worth a glance when the numbers are in the realm of the plausible — paints a mixed picture of China’s economic health. 

Industrial production for May rose by 5.6 percent, according to the National Bureau of Statistics of China, but retail sales grew by just 2.7 percent, short of expectations. 

What is not in question is that The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) is responding to increasing pressure to enact additional stimulus measures to encourage domestic consumer demand, as explained in this late June Reuters story. The PBOC unveiled a raft of easing steps in May, including interest rate cuts and a major liquidity injection. 

Pharma Imports 

As for out-of-country demand, we noted the following Visual Capitalist graph with interest: 

As of 2021 

(Note: More current data would be nice but can’t be had or lacks credibility, per the U.S. Census Bureau and Department of Commerce.) 

Rocky Mountain Snowpack 

The winter of 2024-2025 delivered an above-average snowpack across much of the Rocky Mountains, which feeds the Colorado River system. As of late June, the Bureau of Reclamation reported that the Upper Colorado River Basin snowpack concluded the winter season at 115 percent of the median. 

The above-average “snow water equivalent” (SWE) reported annually is a measure of how much water is stored in the snow in the Upper Colorado River Basin — a17,800-square-mile region that feeds the river and its tributaries in five states. More than 40 million people rely on the river for water. 

The runoff boosted reservoir levels at Lake Powell and Lake Mead, alleviating short-term drought concerns and postponing the likelihood of immediate and/or drastic water cuts for states including Nevada and Arizona. 

Military Head Counts 

We close out this post-Fourth of July edition with another Visual Capitalist Graph showing which states have the most active duty military personnel. 

As of March 2025 

California tops the list, thanks to major bases like Camp Pendleton, Edwards Air Force Base, and Naval Base San Diego. Virginia ranks second due to the Pentagon and the Norfolk Naval Station, the world’s largest naval station. 

Note: The data for the visualization comes from the Defense Manpower Data Center (DMDC).  

On the Horizon

Data & Dialogue About the Economy



The Fact Pack is a monthly business e-report co-authored by Mike PeQueen of Hightower Las Vegas and John Restrepo of RCG Economics, which combines important metrics relevant to business decision makers and financial commentary on the current issues facing the economy.

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