San Francisco Does Not Have a "Housing Crisis" — We Have an Affordability Crisis
And Mayor Lurie’s Upzoning Plan will not guarantee affordable housing.
This proposal is an even more extreme version of Mayor Breed’s rejected plan. It threatens to overshadow what makes our neighborhoods livable—replacing them with 6- to 30-story luxury condo investments that benefit developers, not communities.
Under Mayor Lurie’s plan:
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Local businesses will be priced out by speculative property flips and rising commercial rents.
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Longtime tenants in older rent-controlled buildings will be quietly displaced through buyouts and demolitions.
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Beloved neighborhood corridors will be transformed into luxury enclaves for investors—not homes for working families.
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Towering buildings in our neighborhoods will cast long shadows, block sunlight, erase historic character, and disrupt the human-scale streetscapes that define San Francisco’s unique identity.
Outdated Assumptions
San Francisco’s housing debate is stuck in outdated mandates and assumptions that no longer reflect reality. Since 2020, the city’s population has dropped by 65,000. Vacancy rates are up—with over 40,000 homes currently sitting empty. These are not crisis conditions—they show a failure to make existing housing work for the people who need it.
Yet Sacramento’s mandates still require San Francisco to plan for 82,000 new units by 2031, based on flawed growth projections. The Department of Finance expects only modest growth over the next 15 years—far below the assumptions behind these targets.
Focus on Pipeline
Meanwhile, we already have 72,000 permitted units in the pipeline—more than enough to meet revised needs. But instead of encouraging affordable housing, these mandates fuel high-density, market-rate towers that displace renters and small businesses.
The YIMBY claim that oversupply will lower prices is a debunked economic myth. Even Senator Wiener admits any trickle-down could take decades—if it happens at all. Over the past 30 years, San Francisco added 27% more housing while the population grew just 11%—and prices still soared.
And even if not much gets built right away, this upzoning opens the door to speculation, demolition, and displacement for decades to come. It hands developers a blank check—permanently.
Unfunded Mandate
The state’s mandate represents capacity for 200,000+ new residents, yet there is no clear plan for water, sewer, emergency services, transportation, or schools. The plan allows 80% lot coverage, threatening greenbelts, tree canopy, and neighborhood character, with no updated environmental review. There is no protection against demolition of our history or impact on the community. In fact,“ministerial review” and “accelerated permits” already are in place and allow for projects to pass within days without impact analyses or public comment.
One Key Thing to Know
Nearly every property on the north and west sides of the city is affected.
The light blue boxes on the map represent areas of “density decontrol”—meaning property owners can build as many units as will fit within the allowable height and bulk limits. That often means 4- to 6-story buildings on residential streets—not just along commercial corridors. Corner lots are given special treatment, with height limits automatically increased to 65 feet—intensifying the impact on residential streets.
This applies throughout entire neighborhoods—including yours. The scale, use, and number of units are no longer guided by neighborhood context. You will have no predictability in what could be built in your neighborhood—now or years from now.
Make no mistake: this is only the beginning. When the next housing cycle starts (2032–2040), Sacramento will be back for more. Senator Wiener is already pushing bills to lessen coastal, environmental, and historic protections—clearing the way for taller, denser projects that serve developers’ profits, not the public good.
Article: Can the West Side absorb more density without displacing existing tenants and small businesses? 48hills, 4/7/25
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