The Innovation Group Brazil Gaming Forecast Updated to Reflect New Legislation
New Gaming Legislation in Brazil
With more than 200 million inhabitants, Brazil is one of the largest untapped gaming markets in the world. New legislation introduced by Brazilian lawmakers broadens previous efforts, authorizing up to 32 casino resorts nationwide. More specifically, the new legislation allows for:
- One casino resort by state with a population of no more than 15 million inhabitants;
- Two casinos by state with a population between 15 and 25 million inhabitants (currently applicable to Bahia, Mina Gerais and Rio de Janeiro); and
- Up to three casino resorts by state with a population of more than 25 million inhabitants (currently applicable to Sao Paulo).
The new legislation also:
- Focuses on integrated casino resorts only with no permissions for bingo halls or machine outlets;
- Limits the casino floor to 10% of total resort space; and
- Establishes a 10% tax rate on Global Gaming Revenue (GGR) - the same rate as previous legislation.
Brazil Gaming Forecast Model Update
In conjunction with our local partners at BetConsult, The Innovation Group (TIG) has updated its
previously released Brazil Gaming Forecast Model
. Revenue projections were based on current legislation, with a multitude of adjustments required to account for demographic and economic diversity across the country, as follows.
- The eligible gaming customer base was adjusted to account only for those above subsistence level incomes.
- Penetration rates were based on a combination of current Latin American gaming behavior and higher, aspirational rates found in more fully developed North American gaming markets. Penetration rates also were adjusted to reflect the differences between rural and urban residents.
- Base international tourism growth as well as induced tourism from gaming were both considered in the analysis.
TIG's updated Brazil Gaming Revenue Forecast Model yielded a market potential of US$6.58 billion to US$7.57 billion GGR from casinos, with substantial non-gaming revenue available in addition to GGR. Note: Online gaming revenue and cannibalization potential were not considered in this updated demand model, pending the inclusion of internet gaming in the final bill.
TIG's national gaming demand model can be adapted to reflect multiple legislative scenarios and to efficiently provide customized analyses for specific states, cities and sites. Contact TIG Director of International Development
to learn more.