TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 25, 2025 | |
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#FROM THE DIRECTOR'S DESK#
Adapting the African Union For A Changing World
ARAB NEWS — The African Union (AU) faces a critical need to adapt to the complex challenges of a changing global landscape and internal disunity. Originally founded to foster post-colonial unity, the AU now confronts transnational conflicts and the reemergence of sovereignty-first policies among its member states. Despite Africa’s vast potential, the continent struggles with security threats, debt distress, and climate-induced displacement. Many African countries fail to fulfill financial commitments, leading to an overreliance on external funding that undermines the AU's priorities. Additionally, traditional peacekeeping frameworks are proving inadequate against fluid, borderless conflicts dominated by non-state actors. Internal contradictions weaken the Union’s effectiveness, and while initiatives like the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) show promise, overcoming bureaucratic inertia and achieving transformational change remains essential for the AU’s long-term survival and success.
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Sources: Gaza Arab Plan May Involve up to $20 Billion Regional Contribution,
REUTERS — Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi will travel to Riyadh to discuss an Arab plan for Gaza reconstruction, potentially involving up to $20 billion in regional contributions. The plan, largely based on an Egyptian proposal, aims to rebuild Gaza without displacing Palestinians, countering a controversial U.S. proposal. Key Arab states like Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, the UAE, and Qatar will review the plan ahead of an Arab summit in Cairo. This initiative seeks to coordinate international participation and exclude Hamas from governance in Gaza.
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Libya's First Private Oil Firm Grows in Eastern Commander's Shadows
REUTERS — Arkenu Oil Company has emerged as Libya's first private oil exporter, exporting 7.6 million barrels worth $600 million since May, challenging the National Oil Corporation's monopoly. This shift in Libyan oil dynamics is influenced by forces loyal to military commander Khalifa Haftar, with his son Saddam Haftar indirectly controlling Arkenu, according to a UN report. Despite being officially centered in Benghazi, the payment channels for Arkenu's exports bypass the Central Bank of Libya, raising concerns about potential corruption. Arkenu's operations are just one example of the complicated interplay between armed factions and economic resources in Libya's divided political landscape.
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Libya: Tobruk Air Base at the Center of Military Axis Between Haftar, Russia and Belarus
AGENZIA NOVA — The Tobruk Air Base, covering 40 square kilometers and controlled by Khalifa Haftar's Libyan National Army since 2014, is central to the military cooperation between Libya, Russia, and Belarus. Recent visits by Russian warships and the unloading of military equipment reflect its elevated strategic importance. Russia, via Belarus, plans to upgrade the base with new fighters, air defense systems, and cybersecurity improvements. This level of cooperation demonstrates Moscow’s sustained influence in North Africa and Haftar's strategic diversification of military support beyond Russia alone.
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Egypt Holds Interest Rates After Trump’s Gaza Plan Jolts Region
BLOOMBERG — Egypt has maintained its interest rates at a record high, with the deposit rate at 27.25% and the lending rate at 28.25%, amid economic uncertainty driven by U.S. trade policies and geopolitical tensions. The central bank's decision marks the seventh consecutive hold, reflecting concerns over high inflation, which was 24% in January. President Trump's proposal to relocate Palestinians from Gaza has further unsettled investor sentiment. Future rate cuts in Egypt hinge on inflation easing below 20% and the receipt of an IMF loan tranche, with the next policy meeting scheduled for April.
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Morocco Plans Euro Debt in First Foreign Bond Sale in Two Years
BLOOMBERG — Morocco is set to issue Euro-denominated bonds for the first time since 2020 to fund substantial reforms and investments ahead of co-hosting the 2030 FIFA World Cup. Preferring euros over dollars due to its primary trade relationship with the EU, Morocco aims to finance infrastructure projects including railway expansion, desalination plants, and renewable energy. The government plans to raise about $2 billion for pension reforms, with a total new foreign debt ceiling of $6 billion for 2025. Spending through 2035, incorporating earthquake recovery, is projected to exceed $35 billion.
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—TRANSLATED—
In the Maghreb, The Metastases of Sahelian Jihad
LE POINT — In February 2023, Moroccan authorities dismantled an ISIS cell operating in nine cities, including Casablanca and Fez, uncovering explosives and firearms. This indicates a spread of Sahelian jihadist activities into North Africa, driven by political instability and conflict spillover. Previously in 2015, Tunisia faced three major ISIS attacks, killing 75 people. Morocco's strategic location and its enhanced counter-terrorism measures highlight the region's ongoing security challenges amidst broader geopolitical tensions.
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THE DEBRIEF
UNCOVERING NORTH AFRICA: ECONOMIC, GEOPOLITICAL & SOCIAL DEVELOPMENTS
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By Daniel Weinstein | NAI Research Assistant
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Development & Oversight by Lana Bleik
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Egypt
- STATE OF THE ECONOMY- -STRUGGLING BUT NOT CRITICAL-
Egypt has launched a strategic "land-for-cash" deal to stimulate economic growth and tackle fiscal challenges. A $35 billion agreement with the UAE grants rights to build a new city on the Ras al-Hikma Peninsula. Years of economic hardship, exacerbated by COVID-19, conflicts, and trade disruptions, have impacted Egypt severely. Houthi attacks affecting Suez Canal revenues added further strain. Despite these challenges, the economy is expected to grow by 4% in 2025 with support from the IMF, World Bank, UAE, and European Commission. Key advancements include reducing military influence to enhance private investment, boosting investor confidence. Egypt's geopolitical importance ensures ongoing international support to maintain regional stability and economic recovery.
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Morocco
- STATE OF THE ECONOMY- -STABLE & GROWING-
Morocco's economic forecast for 2025 is promising, with the Haut Commissaire au Plan projecting a 3.8% growth rate after a 3% expansion in 2024. This positive outlook is driven by favorable climate conditions boosting the agricultural sector, a vital part of the economy. Additionally, the mining industry, notably phosphate exports, remains crucial for foreign revenue. The tourism sector is also poised for growth, supported by infrastructure investments and policies aimed at increasing international appeal.
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Tunisia
- STATE OF THE ECONOMY- -STRUGGLING BUT NOT CRITICAL-
Tunisia has reduced its budget deficit by $1 billion through higher income tax revenues, addressing a key post-pandemic economic challenge. However, new legislation on check payments and strict banking regulations have created financial uncertainty, impacting consumer confidence and credit access. Despite easing penalties for bounced checks, banks' tightened regulations may limit household spending. While inflation decreased to 6.7% in September 2024, persistent issues like low investment, sluggish productivity, and high public debt hinder recovery. Tunisia’s economic difficulties are also shaping its critical stance on Western policies, though it remains reliant on Western financial aid.
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Libya
- STATE OF THE ECONOMY- -GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT-
The Central Bank of Libya and the World Bank are discussing potential economic reforms, emphasizing transparency to bolster financial stability. Libya faces economic challenges due to prolonged political instability and a tough regional environment. Authorities have outlined a 2025 recovery strategy centered on increasing oil production, with an estimated investment of $3–4 billion needed to expand output and support the recovery process.
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Produced by the North Africa Initiative, the section above offers analysis grounded in expert research, institutional reports, and scholarly perspectives. It examines the region's economic trends, geopolitical dynamics, and social transformations, providing informed insights on North Africa's evolving landscape. | |
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THE NORTH AFRICA INITIATIVE & SAIS REVIEW'S THE LOOKING GLASS PODCAST
—IN CASE YOU MISSED IT—
The Libya Chronicles: A Nation in Flux
Catch the newest episode of The Looking Glass' "The Libya Chronicles: A Nation in Flux" — part of the first Maghreb Voices Mini Series dedicated to Libya, a collaboration between the SAIS Review of International Affairs and the North Africa Initiative at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS).
Stephanie Turco Williams, nonresident senior fellow at the Brookings Center for Middle East Policy and former special adviser on Libya to the UN Secretary-General shares her expertise on Libya’s social and economic shifts, informed by her extensive career, including roles as acting special representative for Libya, deputy special representative to the UN and more than two decades in the U.S. Foreign Service focusing on the Middle East.
You can listen to this episode on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.
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THE WASHINGTON INSTITUTE FOR NEAR EAST POLICY (WINEP) | VIRTUAL POLICY FORUM SERIES
—IN CASE YOU MISSED IT—
Year Four in Ukraine: NATO Views and Middle East Impact
On February 18, the Washington Institute held a virtual Policy Forum where a senior NATO official joined U.S. and regional experts to discuss how the Trump administration’s initial peacemaking forays might affect the war’s broader geopolitical stakes, from great power competition in the Middle East to rare-earth minerals and Western counter-messaging. An evolving U.S. approach under the Trump administration may affect peace negotiations and the global balance of power, emphasizing the need for coherent strategies that reflect both regional concerns and international norms
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THE ARAB LAND INITIATIVE | CONFERENCE
—IN CASE YOU MISSED IT—
Forging a Resilient Future: Key Takeaways from the Third Arab Land Conference Opening Session
On February 18-20, the Government of Morocco, under the auspices of the Ministry of National Territory and Urban Planning, Housing and City Policy, hosted the Third Arab Land Conference in Rabat, to chart a path forward in a rapidly urbanizing Arab region facing escalating threats such as climate change, land scarcity, forced displacement, and governance gaps.
The Opening Session framed the critical discussions that followed over the next three days, highlighting how robust land governance systems are essential for managing rapid urban expansion, addressing inequality, environmental sustainability, and digital transformation in land management.
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THE SAIS REVIEW OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS
—CALL FOR PAPERS—
Forgotten Wars: Beyond the Mainstream
The next issue of The SAIS Review aims to shed light on the world's overlooked crises, by elevating underreported conflicts to cultivate a deeper understanding of their historical roots, political dynamics, and humanitarian consequences as well as exploring potential paths toward resolution.
Policymakers, professionals, academics, and activists with expertise may submit to sais.review@gmail.com.
Abstracts are due March 15, 2025
Manuscripts are due March 29, 2025
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THE BAFFLER
—COMMENTARY—
The Tip of Russia’s Spear
Yevgeny Prigozhin, known as "Putin's Chef," rose from a criminal past to become a key figure in Russia's geopolitical maneuvers. After gaining Vladimir Putin's favor through his restaurant business, Prigozhin expanded into military contracting with the Wagner Group, a mercenary organization. Wagner played significant roles in conflicts in Ukraine, Syria, and Africa, acting as a tool for Russian interests. Prigozhin's influence peaked with high-profile actions like the attack on U.S. forces in Syria and alleged interference in the 2016 U.S. elections. His operations extended to Libya, where he supported General Khalifa Haftar amid a complex web of international interests. Prigozhin's ability to capitalize on instability highlighted his effectiveness in Russia's assertive foreign policy, although he was part of a larger constellation of state and non-state actors vying for power and profit in global conflicts.
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MIDDLE EAST COUNCIL ON GLOBAL AFFAIRS
USAID in MENA: A Requiem
In February 2025, the Trump Administration began dismantling USAID, prompting concerns about its future role in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). USAID has historically been a key player in the region, contributing around 27% of U.S. bilateral aid, with $4.2 billion earmarked in 2024 alone. Its programs have ranged from humanitarian aid in war-torn areas like Gaza and Yemen to economic development in Egypt and Jordan. The agency's abrupt shutdown leaves a significant void that could exacerbate regional instability and diminish U.S. influence as China gains favor. Critics have long debated USAID's focus, with some arguing it supports corrupt regimes or fails to effectively channel resources, while others view it as essential for strategic geopolitical engagement. Shifting its functions to the State Department could streamline U.S. foreign policy but also risks undermining the specialized development work USAID has historically managed.
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POLICY CENTER FOR THE NEW SOUTH
A Bold Agenda for the African Development Bank: Seizing Africa’s Moment in a Fractured Global Economy
The African Development Bank (AfDB) is poised to play a pivotal role in capitalizing on Africa’s position within a rapidly evolving global economic landscape. With economic fragmentation and geopolitical shifts, Africa's potential is hindered by infrastructure challenges and financial constraints. The AfDB's strategy should prioritize Africa's agency while fostering global partnerships, integrating North Africa into a cohesive economic framework. Key opportunities include harnessing Africa's vast mineral resources, cultivating intra-continental supply chains, and fostering industrialization with local value addition. With a financing gap of $100–$170 billion annually, innovative financial approaches such as an African Credit Rating Agency and the operationalization of an African Monetary Fund are essential.
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LUISS SCHOOL OF GOVERNMENT
Maginot Line Around Europe?Assessing the Impact of EU Agreements with MENA Countries on Migration Flows to Europe
An analysis of the impact of EU agreements with MENA countries on migration flows from 2015 to 2024, reveals that these agreements have primarily redirected rather than reduced migrant numbers. The EU-Türkiye Statement of 2016 led to an immediate drop in arrivals but only rerouted migrants through alternative paths, such as the central Mediterranean and Balkan routes. Despite intensified border controls and financial aid from the EU, Türkiye continues to host around 4 million refugees, including 3 million Syrians, due to improved living conditions and social rights for refugees. This report's revelations emphasize the need for the EU to address root causes in transit countries, such as enhancing local living conditions, to achieve more effective long-term migration management.
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WORLD BANK | PHOTOBOOK
Shades of Libya
Contrasts, Hope, and Resilience
The World Bank has launched "Shades of Libya: Contrasts, Hope, and Resilience," a photobook featuring young Libyan photographers that highlights the country’s diverse landscapes and resilient spirit. On exhibition in Tripoli's Old Town, it aims to provide a nuanced narrative about Libya's potential and development challenges, focusing on resilience amid political instability.
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AFRICA ENERGY
Bonfire of the Billions
How Libya is Squandering Its Hydrocarbons Inheritance
Issue 521 leads with Libya, where a catastrophic decline in oil sale revenues transferred to the state treasury threatens to undermine the already shaky foundations of the country's governance. African Energy's analysis of recently released Libyan oil data suggests that uneconomic barter deals, smuggling, mismanagement and corruption have cost the country tens of billions of dollars in the past three years.
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REFUGEES INTERNATIONAL | AFRICA REPORT
No Model of Refuge
Sudanese Refugees in Egypt
Despite Egypt's policies on paper favoring Sudanese refugees, in reality, they face severe protection challenges, including forced deportation and lack of access to education and healthcare. The new Asylum Law complicates their situation further, threatening arbitrary detentions and deportations. Around 1.2 million Sudanese refugees have sought refuge in Egypt since April 2023, yet live under constant threat and insufficient support.
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STOCKHOLM INTERNATIONAL PEACE RESEARCH INSTITUTE | REPORT
Military Entrenchment in Mali and Niger
Praetorianism in Retrospect
Although the factors driving each coup are unique to the specific socio-historical contexts, in Mali and Niger the military has long been intertwined with politics. Furthermore, the deterioration of the security situation, due to armed jihadist groups, has been a key factor in the remilitarization of power. Lacking democratic legitimacy, the ruling military juntas are turning to China, Russia and Turkey to reshape traditional partnerships’ equilibrium.
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WORLD BANK | POLICY RESEARCH WORKING PAPER
Decarbonization in MENA Countries
An Empirical Analysis of Policy Impacts
This research investigates the impacts of major fiscal instruments on decarbonization in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, analyzing data from 41 countries. The adverse effects of oil subsidies on emissions are evident only in MENA oil producers, with subsidies having no substantial effect on short- or long-term economic growth across all examined groups. Reducing these subsidies could mitigate emissions without harming economic growth.
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UNIVERSITY OF MANOUBA & UNHCR TUNISIA BUREAU | POLICY PAPER
Irregular Migration in Tunisia
Causes, Consequences & Policy Recommendations
Tunisia's migration narrative has evolved from a historical transit point for refugees and economic migrants to a contemporary crisis shaped by geopolitical instability and economic difficulties. Rising xenophobia and strict government measures, have deteriorated migrant conditions, posing risks to Tunisia’s social cohesion and raising concerns about potential extremism hubs in migrant camps. Urgent and comprehensive political solutions are essential to mitigate the escalating crisis.
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Recruit Exceptional Global Talent from Johns Hopkins SAIS!
JHU SAIS Graduate Students bring advanced expertise, analytical rigor, and a global perspective to complex challenges. With 96% of graduates securing employment or further academic opportunities within six months, our candidates are well-prepared for roles across the private, public, non-profit, and multilateral sectors.
Employers can advertise job and internship openings, access curated resume books of highly qualified candidates, and engage through employer presentations, site visits, and career treks.
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WINEP | 2025-26 Research Assistant Program
The Washington Institute is accepting rolling applications for our 2025-2026 Research Assistant (RA) cohort. The RA program provides a pathway for recent graduates and early-career professionals to begin the transformation from young scholar to promising analyst and future policymaker. Research Assistants support Institute senior fellows in all aspects of research and administrative work, and go on to contribute to the policy world as government officials, research analysts, journalists, consultants, and other roles.
DEADLINE: MARCH 1, 2025
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WINEP | 2025 Summer Internship Program
The Washington Institute is accepting rolling applications for our Summer 2025 Intern Class. Interns support Institute research, publications, and events, gaining relevant experience for foreign policy careers. Intern positions are geared towards undergraduate (rising juniors or seniors) or Master’s students who are interested in Middle East affairs and U.S. foreign policy. Ideal candidates will be eager to learn about Middle East policy issues, regional developments, and U.S. policy making.
DEADLINE: MARCH 1, 2025
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LUISS Med. Platform School of Government | Training Program on Post-conflict Journalism
The "Reporting for Peace in Libya" training program aims to equip Libyan journalists and bloggers with essential skills in ethical, conflict-sensitive journalism. It includes online seminars on media ethics, countering misinformation, and conflict analysis, followed by an intensive workshop in Rome focused on investigative journalism and multimedia storytelling. The program seeks candidates who are committed to responsible reporting and promoting peace and dialogue within post-conflict Libya.
DEADLINE: MARCH 02, 2025
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IMF | Resident Macroeconomic Frameworks Advisor
The IMF’s Institute for Capacity Development (ICD) and the IMF’s Middle East Regional Technical Assistance Center (METAC) are seeking a qualified candidate to fill the position of Resident Macroeconomic Frameworks Advisor. They will undertake these activities through technical assistance (TA) missions, TA-related training engagements, and peer-to-peer learning activities, either alone or together with IMF staff and/or specialized short-term experts (STX) employed by the IMF.
DEADLINE: MARCH 06, 2025
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Stay informed.
Stay ahead.
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See the latest analyses and posts by FPI Senior Fellow & Executive Director of The North Africa Initiative (NAI)
Also, catch Hafed's latest and other columns in Arab News.
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You can contact the North Africa Initiative (NAI) by emailing:
Senior Research Program Coordinator
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The Maghreb Weekly is produced by the North Africa Initiative of the Johns Hopkins University's School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) Foreign Policy Institute with a focus on developments that impact the region's dynamics. This weekly digest includes an overview of the latest published research, studies and reports from think tanks and policy centers, covering long-term perspectives and analyses of North Africa's challenges and opportunities. | |
Any views expressed in the articles above, as well as any errors, are solely those of the authors. | | | | |
