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A SPECIAL COUNTRY EDITION NEWSLETTER

Introduction

Welcome to the first Special Country Edition Newsletter by the North Africa Initiative (NAI), a publication that aims to give an overview on the political economies, and internal dynamics of Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco and Tunisia, distilling information from key reports of institutions such as the World Bank, the IMF and the UN.

In this edition, we focus on Algeria, a country whose geopolitical significance as both a global and regional player has reached a critical juncture as its economy continues to expand and develop. The country’s wealth of natural resources and geographic vicinity to Europe continues to define its global importance, albeit falling short of qualifying as a BRICS member.



The first Special Edition begins by an overview of Algeria’s economy and trade, then it examines the country’s strategies to diversify its energy production sources. Finally, it delves into the political landscape, taking a close look at the ways the country has been recently fighting systemic corruption, youth brain drains, and the dire consequences of consecutive migration crises.

Overview

Algeria's population is characterized by a youthful demographic, with a high proportion of people under 30. As of recent estimates, the population is around 45 million, experiencing a relatively high growth rate. Rural areas have seen considerable outmigration, particularly among young people seeking better economic opportunities, often in urban centers or abroad. The country’s population is predominantly Arab-Berber, with Islam as the main religion.

In terms of the UN's Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), Algeria’s performance has shown mixed results. The country ranks 64th out of 163 countries in the 2022 SDG Index, with a score of 71.5%, which is above the MENA regional average (66.7%). However, Algeria still faces significant challenges in various areas, particularly regarding environmental sustainability (SDG 15) and economic growth (SDG 8). Despite some progress in reducing poverty (SDG 1), with extreme poverty declining sharply, the impacts of global events like the COVID-19 pandemic and the Ukraine crisis have slowed further advancements.

While Algeria has made strides in health coverage (SDG 3.8) with its free universal public healthcare system, social protection coverage (SDG 1.3) remains a challenge, with a notable portion of the labor force still outside the formal social security system.

Economy & Trade

In June 2024, the World Bank [1] recognized Algeria as an upper-middle-income country, a significant milestone achieved through an ambitious development strategy, placing it alongside emerging economies like China, Brazil, and Turkey. Despite this progress, the government recently halted the privatization of state-owned enterprises and imposed restrictions on import and foreign investment, which are only now beginning to be eased.

Economic Indicators & Trends

In the last couple of years, Algeria’s economy has witnessed significant changes. While the country was slowly recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic slowdowns, the war in Ukraine started. High inflation from the spillovers of the war continued to push up consumer prices to levels that remain a significant challenge until today. Inflation rates hovered around 9.3% in 2022 and 2023, driven by rising food prices. The central bank has taken steps to tighten monetary policy by increasing reserve requirements and accelerating liquidity absorption to combat the high rate [2]. These measures in addition to a sustained decline in fresh food prices, a strong dinar, and lower import prices pushed inflation down to around 5.3% in 2024 year-to-date.

Source: International Monetary Fund – Algeria Country Data

At the same time, the war in Ukraine resulted in the worldwide increase in hydrocarbons prices and exports which helped expand the Algerian government revenues. Consequently, Algeria's GDP growth had an acceleration from 3.6% in 2022 to 4.2% in 2023 and public debt decreased from 62.1% of GDP in 2021 to 55.1% in 2023.

Unemployment in Algeria has been a persistent challenge over the past four years, with the rate experiencing fluctuations. In 2020, the unemployment rate stood at 14.04%, driven by the economic disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. By 2023, the unemployment rate had decreased to 12.25%, indicating some progress in economic recovery. Nevertheless, youth unemployment remains a critical issue, with a notably higher rate at 31.9% for those aged 15 to 24. It necessitates focused governmental intervention and efforts in employment generation.

Source: World Bank World Development Indicators Databank

The Algerian government has implemented several policies to address the concerning high rate. One important measure is the introduction of a monthly unemployment grant of $92 for people aged 19-40 in early 2022. This initiative aims to alleviate financial pressure on young adults and reduce potential social instability.

Economic Freedom & Financial Framework

Algeria’s economic landscape, ranked "repressed" in the 2024 Index of Economic Freedom, highlights substantial obstacles to growth. Despite a modest score increase, Algeria stands at 164th globally and 13th out of 14 in the Middle East/North Africa region, with scores below both regional and world averages [3].

Dependence on oil and gas remains strong, contributing around 95% of export revenue, signaling limited progress in economic diversification. Although reforms have aimed to boost local production, ongoing protectionist policies, judiciary challenges, and governance issues continue to hinder broader development.

The regulatory environment also adds complexity, with restrictive business and labor freedom scores falling below global norms. Trade is constrained by an average tariff of 13.8% and various non-tariff barriers. Foreign investors are often restricted to minority stakes, and underdeveloped capital markets, dominated by public banks, limit dynamic private investment.

Source: Heritage Foundation Index of Economic Freedom 2024

Trade Relations

Algeria's trade relations with other countries are influenced by its strategic position, resource wealth, and historical connections. The country's trade policy has evolved over time, focusing on diversification, fostering regional partnerships, and balancing imports and exports to sustain economic growth.

Recently, the country has taken steps toward liberalizing its legal framework. Measures to streamline trade procedures and reduce customs bureaucracy aim to attract more foreign investment and boost trade. Until 2019, foreign investors in Algerian companies were restricted to a maximum ownership of 49%, and foreign contractors were required to partner with local firms for public tenders. However, in 2020 President Abdelmadjid Tebboune's administration removed the "51/49" rule for several sectors, limiting it to strategic sectors such as hydrocarbons, mining, defense, the import of goods for resale in Algeria, and pharmaceutical production [4]. As a result, foreign entities may today acquire a majority interest in local Algerian companies.

Foreign Direct Investment

Foreign direct investment (FDI) in Algeria has seen significant fluctuations from 2021 to 2024. According to the UN Trade & Development “World Investment Report 2024”, in 2021, FDI inflows amounted to $870 million, down from $1.14 billion in 2020. This downward trend continued dramatically in 2022, with FDI inflows plummeting to just $250 million [5] before rebounding to $1.2B in 2023.

Source: United Nations Trade and Development World Investment Report 2024

Algeria experienced a sharp drop in FDI projects following a peak of 28 projects in 2019. The country struggled to regain momentum, with only five projects in 2020 due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and 12 projects in 2022. In that year, renewable and alternative power projects made up 25% of the total FDI projects, highlighting the influence of Algeria's extensive hydrocarbon resources [6].

Meanwhile, chemicals, coal, and oil and gas each accounted for roughly one-sixth of the FDI projects. According to the Algerian Investment Promotion Agency, the main investors in Algeria are the United States (29%), Italy (10%), France (10%), Spain (7%), and the United Kingdom (6%). Investments are primarily directed towards the industry sector (especially hydrocarbons), construction, transport, and agriculture.

Import quotas and regulations on certain goods, such as vehicles, agricultural products, and medicines, limit market access for foreign companies. The government also imposes countervailing duties on subsidized imports and anti-dumping measures to protect domestic industries.

Algeria’s Bilateral Partnerships & Trade Relations

Algeria–EU Relations 

In 2023, Algeria ranked as the EU's 22nd largest trade partner, contributing 1% of the EU’s goods trade. The EU remains Algeria's top trading partner, representing about 50% of Algeria’s global trade. Total trade in goods between the two reached €50.2 billion, with EU imports from Algeria dominated by mineral products (€33.9 billion), while EU exports included machinery, chemicals, and transport equipment, totaling €14.9 billion [7].

The EU-Algeria Association Agreement provides preferential access to EU markets, benefiting Algeria's energy exports. Algeria is now the EU's third-largest gas supplier, increasingly important post-Ukraine invasion. Strategic partnerships support areas like energy transition and governance, with EU financial aid through the Neighborhood Development and International Cooperation Instrument (NDICI) [8]. For 2021-2027, key collaboration focuses on energy transition, economic governance, and sustainable growth.

While France's recent backing of Morocco's sovereignty over the western Sahara has provoked an estrangement with Algeria, the country has recently resumed trade and normalization with Spain after two and half years of frozen relations [9]. This new rapprochement is beneficial for both countries, especially on the energy trade front [10] and will give Algeria renewed geostrategic power in the region.

Algeria–China Relations

China has rapidly become a key trade partner for Algeria, focusing on infrastructure, energy, and technology. In August 2024, China's exports to Algeria reached $930 million, primarily machinery and electronics, while imports—mainly hydrocarbons—stood at $67.5 million [11]. The two countries are strengthening ties through initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative, aligned with Algeria's "New Algeria" vision, which emphasizes new energy and digital projects.

Additionally, in 2024, the China National Nuclear Corporation and Algeria's Ministry of Energy and Mines began exploring nuclear technology applications in medicine, including cancer-treatment radiopharmaceuticals at Algeria’s Birine Nuclear Research Center. Algeria’s new Investment Law further signals a welcoming stance toward Chinese investment across sectors, marking a robust expansion of China-Algeria cooperation [12].

Algeria–Russia Relations

Algeria and Russia have a historically unique relation that started with the crucial help of the Soviet Union during Algeria’s war of independence. Since then, military cooperation has been central to Algeria-Russia relations, with Algeria heavily reliant on Russian weaponry and expertise, accounting for 73% of its arms purchases from Russia between 2018 and 2022. Algeria is Russia's third-largest arms customer, with $4.2 billion in purchases from 2016 to 2020. Russia provides Algeria with advanced systems like Su-57 fighters, although there’s limited evidence of S-400 deliveries. Algeria’s neutrality in the Ukraine conflict reflects its dependence on Russian defense supplies and commitment to sovereignty principles, though it maintains assurances to European energy partners [13].

More recently, Algeria and Russia have diversified their ties beyond the military: agriculture, education, space, civilian nuclear technology, and trade have become key areas of collaboration, creating mutual benefits. Bilateral trade between the two countries grew nearly 70% in 2022.

Algeria–U.S. Relations

U.S. engagement in Algeria centers on strengthening security ties, economic partnerships, and cultural exchanges. Programs support counterterrorism, civil society, and youth development, while agreements safeguard Algeria’s cultural heritage.

The United States is also a key trading partner for Algeria and, as of 2024, is the largest source of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in the country (see above FDI section. The two nations have a Trade and Investment Framework Agreement (TIFA) to address economic challenges and expand commercial opportunities. TIFA talks were held in 2022, where the U.S. expressed support for Algeria’s economic diversification, renewable energy goals, transparent policies, and investment liberalization [14].

Algeria & Neighboring Countries

Algeria has been trying to balance an increased regional isolation due to its hostility with Morocco and this latter’s launch of its “Royal Atlantic Initiative,” facilitating Sahel countries’ access to the Atlantic Ocean. Algeria has consequently turned its sights towards its southern neighbor Mauritania. The two countries have recently opened a border gate and agreed to establish a free trade zone and an 847 km road linking Tindouf (Algeria) to Zouérat (Mauritania) [15]. While ambitious, the project faces challenges due to its cost and sparse population. Additionally, Algeria plans $442 million in energy investments across Mali, Niger, and Libya and will open new free trade zones with several neighboring countries in 2024.

Energy & Climate

Energy

Overview & Key Figures

Algeria's energy sector is heavily dominated by hydrocarbons, contributing over 90% of the country's export revenues and around 30% of its GDP. Despite being a top global exporter of natural gas, recent years have highlighted the urgent need for diversification within its energy mix to sustain economic growth and manage domestic demand. The push for renewables has gained momentum, especially as Algeria plans to increase renewable energy to cover 27% of its electricity needs by 2035.

Share of Hydrocarbon Exports and Fiscal Revenue. Source: IMF Algeria Country Report 2024

Energy Production & Consumption

The top amount of capacity installed in Algeria in 2022 was in Natural Gas at 95.02%, down from 95.49% in 2021. The technology with the biggest increase in capacity installed in 2022 was Solar PV at 2.31%, up from 1.82 in 2021 [16].

Source: BloombergNEF ClimateScope

The total electric power consumption in Algeria was forecast to continuously increase between 2024 and 2029 by in total 0.01-million-kilowatt hours [+12.5%]. Electric power consumption is estimated to amount to 0.09 million kilowatt hours in 2029 [17].

The average electricity price in Algeria has dropped from 28.85 USD/MWh in 2021 to 27.54 USD/MWh in 2022. Since 2017, it has fluctuated between 26.53 USD/MWh (2020) and 30.53 USD/MWh (2017).

Fossil Fuels

Algeria’s energy sector is pivotal not only for the national economy but also for its strategic geopolitical role. The country is a key supplier of natural gas to Europe, with most of its gas exports goes via pipeline to Italy and Spain. While the MedGaz pipeline provides a direct link to Spain, the other two pipelines cross through Morocco (Maghreb-Europe pipeline) and Tunisia (TransMed). These three pipelines have a total capacity of 53.5 billion cubic meters (bcm) [18]. Italy and Spain combined receive around 60% of total Algerian gas exports. This position gives Algeria significant leverage in the regional energy market and makes it a crucial player in global energy discussions. The revenues generated from oil and gas exports fund essential government programs, infrastructure projects, and social services, making the sector vital for the country’s socio-economic stability.

With the rise of gas prices in Europe in 2021/22, Algeria’s gas has become increasingly relevant for some importing countries, particularly for Italy as it seeks to reduce its over-dependence on Russian gas.

Source: TradeMap; UN ComTrade & Statista

Renewable Energy

With hydrocarbons playing a dominant role in its economy, Algeria must expand its renewable energy capacity to meet rising domestic power demands without sacrificing valuable export revenues.

Nevertheless, Algeria's renewable energy journey has shown mixed progress. Currently, only around 3% of Algeria’s electricity is generated from renewables, primarily solar (448 MW), hydro (228 MW), and minimal wind capacity (10 MW). This limited reliance on renewables puts pressure on the nation to rethink its energy strategy. Algeria boasts significant renewable potential, particularly in solar energy due to some of the world’s highest solar irradiance levels—capable of producing 1,850 to 2,100 kWh annually, with up to 3,500 sunlight hours in the desert regions. The 1,300-km Mediterranean coastline and southern Sahel winds present further opportunities for wind energy development, offering speeds over eight meters per second [19].

Targeting a renewable energy share of 27% by 2035, the Algerian government has sought partnerships with countries like China, Germany, and the U.S. since 2021. This push includes engineering services, solar-tracking tech, and storage solutions. A significant step was the 2021 tender for a one-gigawatt solar project with five sites ranging from 50 to 300 MW each. National oil giant Sonatrach is also pivoting to solar for off-grid energy needs.

The renewable energy sector in Algeria is largely state-driven, led by Sonatrach, power utility Sonelgaz, and their joint venture, the Algerian Energy Company (AEC). International partnerships are facilitated through SHAEMS, a Sonatrach-Sonelgaz venture acting as a primary liaison for foreign investment in renewable projects.

Energy Projects & Agreements

Despite efforts to diversify, oil and gas exploration and production remain crucial to Algeria’s economic strategy. The government has introduced new hydrocarbons laws to attract foreign investment by improving fiscal terms and providing greater flexibility in contracts. These reforms have led to renewed interest from international oil companies in exploring Algeria’s untapped reserves.

In recent years, new exploration projects have been launched, particularly in the underexplored regions of the Sahara desert. Examples of important projects include partnerships with major international companies like Total, BP, and ENI, which are involved in both conventional and unconventional hydrocarbon exploration.

More recently in October 2024, Germany's VNG, Italy’s Snam and SeaCorridor, along with Austria's Verbund Green Hydrogen, have signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Algerian energy giants Sonatrach and Sonelgaz. This collaboration will focus on conducting comprehensive studies to assess the feasibility and profitability of green hydrogen production in Algeria.

The SoutH2 Corridor is a significant project among five major hydrogen pipelines aimed at facilitating the import of 10 million tons of renewable hydrogen into the EU by 2030. Designated as a Project of Common Interest (PCI), the pipeline will channel hydrogen from North Africa to southern Italy, linking to key demand hubs in Italy, Austria, and Germany.

In March 2024, Algeria and Russia expanded their energy cooperation by signing a roadmap on nuclear power. The agreement, signed by Algerian Minister Arkab and Rosatom CEO Alexey Likhachev, covers the nuclear fuel cycle, research reactors, and personnel training through 2025. This builds on their 2014 partnership for the peaceful use of nuclear energy, including technical exchanges and working groups.

Climate Issues & Policies

Algeria’s current Climate Change Performance Index is at 54th [20] and among the very low-performing countries. In that ranking, Algeria has earned a medium rating in Energy Use, low in GHG Emissions and Climate Policy, and very low in Renewable Energy.

Physical Risks of Climate Change

Algeria, like other Mediterranean nations, is highly impacted by climate change, with its key economic sectors facing significant vulnerability. During the 20th century, the region experienced temperature increases of 1.5 to 2°C and a 20% drop in rainfall over the past five decades. The 2019-2020 hydrological year was notably dry, with rainfall down 30% from the previous year. These changes have led to more frequent climate-related disasters, including heat waves, droughts, and floods, creating challenges to sustainable development and resource management [21].

Additionally, sea levels in the Mediterranean are projected to rise, increasing the risks of coastal flooding and saltwater intrusion into groundwater supplies, posing a significant threat to cities like Algiers. One of the most pressing consequences of climate change in Algeria is the worsening of water scarcity: Algeria’s per capita water availability is about half the threshold of 500 cubic meters per year that defines absolute water scarcity [22].



Source: IMF Report – Fiscal Reforms to Support Addressing Climate Change Challenges, April 2024

Additionally, the risks of floods and wildfires are expected to rise in the Mediterranean basin, including Algeria. Since the early 1980s, the country has experienced at least 42 significant flood events, which have required close to 0.2% of cumulative GDP in additional spending between 2004 and 2019. Climate change could exacerbate these flood risks, as desertification and erosion might diminish the soil's ability to absorb water, leading to more severe floods.

Algeria’s forests are also vulnerable, with 99% at medium to high risk of wildfires. Catastrophic fires in recent years, particularly in 2021 and 2023, have resulted in numerous casualties and substantial economic damage. The combination of drought conditions and heatwaves is likely to increase the threat of wildfires in the future.

Natural Hazards in Algeria. Source: the World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal

Algeria’s Climate Strategy

Algeria has crafted a robust response to the challenges posed by climate change. A key component of this response is the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) submitted to the UN in 2015 under the Paris Agreement, alongside the National Climate Plan approved in 2021 [23], which outlines 155 actions aimed at mitigating and adapting to climate change.

Mitigation

Algeria targets a reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 7% by 2030 under a business-as-usual scenario. This target could extend to a 22% reduction with foreign aid for financing, technology transfer, and capacity building. In February 2022, Energy Transition and Renewable Energies Minister Benattou Ziane announced that Algeria had completed its medium-term plan focused on accelerating energy transition efforts and cutting down conventional fuel use. This initiative featured the conversion of nearly 200,000 vehicles to LPG and promoted local renewable energy production to support a more sustainable energy future [24].

Adaptation

Algeria’s adaptation strategy focuses on water security through investments in desalination plants, dam infrastructure, and enhancing reservoir connections. Strengthening the resilience of the agricultural sector to ensure food security is a crucial priority for Algeria. Since 2000, the country has tripled its irrigated agricultural area, which now constitutes 17% of the total Utilized Agricultural Area (UAA) [25]. Efforts to enhance agricultural yields include the introduction of climate-resilient crops and improved phytosanitary practices. Additionally, the establishment of an insurance mechanism against agricultural disasters and a social protection system for the sector is intended to safeguard farmers from climate-related risks.

Fiscal Strategy

In addition of mitigation and adaptation, Algeria uses fiscal reforms [26] as a policy tool to build resilience to the impact of climate change and achieve its climate goals. The most important one is reforming the subsidy system. Algeria’s domestic energy prices are extremely low due to substantial universal subsidies, making them among the cheapest globally. Their cost was estimated to be about 10.7% of Algeria's GDP in 2021 [27].

These subsidies lead to inefficient energy use, excessive fossil fuel consumption, and increased greenhouse gas emissions. The low energy prices discourage conservation efforts and hinder the commercial viability of renewable energy projects. To address these issues, the Algerian government is contemplating reforms that include plans to phase out universal subsidies in favor of a targeted cash compensation mechanism based on income. This shift could enhance the attractiveness of renewable investments, encourage foreign direct investment (FDI).

Socio-political Landscape & Migration

Political Landscape Including Human Rights & Civil Society

Over the past three years, Algeria's socio-political landscape has experienced significant changes, marked by government-led anti-corruption efforts and ongoing human rights challenges. Since the 2019 Hirak protest movement, which resulted in the resignation of long-time President Abdelaziz Bouteflika, the country has struggled to strike a balance between political reform and repression.

Political Background

Algeria's state institutions are founded on democratic principles, but their independence and effectiveness face scrutiny [28]. The bicameral parliament—comprising the People's National Assembly (APN) and the Council of the Nation—remains dominated by ruling coalition parties, particularly the FLN and RND, despite a slight increase in APN powers after the 2020 constitutional revisions. New political groups emerged after the Arab Spring and Hirak protests, energizing segments of the population but also fragmenting the opposition.

Although parliament includes more youth, it is often criticized for its disconnect from constituents and high member salaries. Local democratic structures have attracted more civil society activists, yet many citizens still rely on personal networks or protests to gain government attention. The presidency and military are seen as the most influential institutions, especially after the military’s role in the 2019 presidential elections, while opposition parties face governmental suppression and risk of co-optation. Despite these challenges, some actors view Algeria's democratic institutions as viable means for reform and social advocacy.

Recent Political Developments

Since President Abdelmadjid Tebboune assumed office in December 2019, Algeria has pursued reforms to consolidate power and tackle socio-economic issues. His administration works to stabilize the country after the 2019 Hirak protests that led to the resignation of President Abdelaziz Bouteflika. Tebboune's constitutional reforms, passed in 2020 with low voter turnout, aimed to modernize governance but reflected public skepticism. In November 2023, Tebboune appointed Nadir Larbaoui as Prime Minister to reinforce loyal leadership ahead of the presidential election, initially set for December 2024 but later postponed to September to boost voter turnout. However, Tebboune’s victory, with 94% of the vote, saw only a 24% turnout, signaling limited public engagement [29].

Popular movement in Algeria (March 2019). Source: Facebook

The Rule of Law & Efforts to Fight Corruption

The Legal & Constitutional Background of Algeria

Algeria's rule of law faces challenges despite formal constitutional commitments to separation of powers. Since Abdelaziz Bouteflika’s presidency (1999-2019), executive power has remained dominant, limiting the independence of the judiciary and legislature. Although the 2020 constitution introduced reforms like judicial independence and term limits, it largely reinforced presidential authority and allowed the military to intervene politically. The judiciary continues to face executive influence, especially in cases involving protesters, raising concerns about impartiality and independence.

Article 2 of the constitution designates Islam as the state religion, embedding Islamic principles into family and personal status laws, such as marriage and inheritance. Local customs in rural areas sometimes override state law, allowing informal authorities to enforce rules, which fragments the legal system. Family law, shaped by conservative values, often restricts women's rights, reflecting tensions between state authority, religious norms, and gender equality in Algeria’s legal framework.

Efforts to Fight Corruption

Tebboune's administration has prioritized the fight against corruption, an issue that gained prominence after the Bouteflika era. The government has prosecuted several high-profile figures from the previous administration, including former prime ministers and business tycoons, as part of its anti-corruption campaign. These measures were meant to address the demands of the Hirak movement for transparency and accountability in governance.

Despite these actions, critics argue that the anti-corruption campaign is selective and politically motivated, primarily targeting individuals who have fallen out of favor with the current administration while sparing Tebboune’s allies. This has cast doubt on the government's commitment to genuine reforms, raising concerns about the use of corruption charges as a tool for political control rather than an effort to eliminate systemic corruption.

Human Rights and Civil Society

Human rights conditions in Algeria have been a significant concern, particularly regarding freedom of expression, assembly, and the press. The space for civil society has also been shrinking. Non-governmental organizations (NGOs) and human rights groups face increasing restrictions, with several organizations being dissolved or facing legal challenges. Freedom House gives a 32/100 score for Algeria, classifying it as “Not Free” [30]. The government’s response to human rights criticisms has typically been to dismiss them as foreign interference in Algeria’s internal affairs, further isolating the country from potential international partnerships focused on human rights improvements.

Government Response

Although Algeria's constitution and international commitments theoretically protect freedom of expression, significant restrictions persist, especially against government critics. In 2019, then-Army Chief of Staff Gaid Salah led a crackdown targeting activists and journalists, including the arrest of journalist Khaled Drareni for supporting the Hirak movement. Over the past three years, numerous activists have been detained under charges such as “undermining national unity” and “inciting unarmed gatherings.” [31] These actions have drawn condemnation from international human rights organizations, which accuse the Algerian authorities of using repressive laws to silence dissent [32].

The state-controlled media environment encourages self-censorship, with frequent arrests and the penal code's amendments in 2020 introducing harsher penalties for defamation and “misinformation.” Independent media also face obstacles like financial pressure, exemplified by the closure of the newspaper Liberté in 2022. Currently, about 300 political prisoners are detained, many for expressing dissent, and arrests of journalists have increased, which has lowered Algeria’s press freedom ranking. Recent cases, like the 2022 arrest of journalist El-Kadi Ihsane, illustrate the shrinking space for free expression [33].

Migration

Algeria's Legal Framework for Migration

Algeria’s migration framework tackles issues stemming from economic drivers, human trafficking, and asylum management, shaped by its role as both a transit and destination country for migrants, especially from sub-Saharan Africa. Internally, youth emigration remains high, driven by limited economic opportunities in rural areas. Many Algerians migrate to Europe, particularly to France, one of Algeria’s primary migration corridors. To curb rural emigration, Algeria’s Ministry of Agriculture and the International Organization for Migration (IOM) have initiated programs aimed at enhancing local job opportunities in these regions.

When it comes to immigration, Algeria hosts a significant number of refugees, notably from Western Sahara. As of 2023, nearly 174,000 Sahrawi refugees [34] were living in camps in Tindouf province, often facing harsh conditions and relying heavily on humanitarian aid. 88% Sahrawi refugees are food insecure or at risk of food insecurity. 60% are economically inactive, and a third are without any source of income whatsoever.

As a result of its limited legal framework, Algeria faces major challenges as a transit and, to a lesser extent, a source country for human trafficking. Criminal networks exploit both migrants and locals, with women and children being particularly vulnerable to forced labor and sexual exploitation. While the country has laws in place to address trafficking, enforcement remains weak, and victims often face difficulties in accessing legal protection or reporting crimes.

Coordination Challenges with Neighboring Countries

Algeria’s migration policy faces increasing challenges due to instability in the Sahel, including recent coups in Mali and Niger. While the country has implemented strict border controls and diplomatic efforts with neighboring states, these have been complicated by political changes in those nations.

In 2023, Algeria expelled over 26,000 sub-Saharan migrants, many of whom were pushed into desert areas, exacerbating a humanitarian crisis. This has led to diplomatic tensions with Niger, as well as criticism for violating refugee rights despite Algeria’s commitments to international conventions.

Relations with Morocco remain strained over the Western Sahara conflict, limiting cooperation within the Arab Maghreb Union. Algeria’s collaboration with Libya and Tunisia [35] has seen mixed results, although a tripartite meeting in April 2024 aimed to address migration challenges. The government's reluctance to allow full access to international NGOs, such as Oxfam, further complicates humanitarian efforts despite limited cooperation [36].

The Role of the EU in Algeria’s Migration Policies

In 2023, the European Union (EU) intensified its efforts to curb migration flows by forming bilateral partnerships with Tunisia, Mauritania, and Egypt, offering financial aid in exchange for stronger border control measures. However, Algeria has remained an exception, refusing to sign similar agreements with the EU. Unlike Morocco and Tunisia, Algeria does not receive EU funds to manage migration, a stance rooted in its national sovereignty and robust financial independence due to its oil and gas revenues [37].

Algeria’s reluctance to engage in migration agreements with the EU is also influenced by the changing nature of its migration challenge. While illegal emigration from Algeria has decreased, the country has increasingly become a transit point for sub-Saharan migrants seeking to reach Europe. This shift has reduced Algeria’s motivation to align with the EU’s migration control strategy, which has faced criticism for outsourcing the management of migration to African countries. The collapse of Niger’s migration cooperation with the EU, alongside deteriorating conditions for migrants stranded at borders, underscores the challenges of the EU’s current approach. A more effective solution may lie in multilateral agreements involving the African Union, though such negotiations would be complex and time-consuming.



Nigerien Migrants. Source: Mehdi Chebil / InfoMigrants

Conclusion

Algeria's economy has exhibited notable resilience, achieving a 4.2% growth rate in 2023, driven by robust hydrocarbon exports, strategic government policies, and stabilizing inflation. However, the nation's entrenched dependence on oil and gas, which constitutes 95% of export revenues, coupled with restrictive governance structures and underdeveloped private-sector frameworks, continues to constrain economic diversification and long-term sustainability. While reforms such as the removal of the "51/49" ownership rule and the pursuit of new trade agreements have begun attracting foreign investment, their transformative impact remains limited due to structural impediments, including import quotas and underdeveloped capital markets.

The renewable energy sector offers immense untapped potential, particularly in solar and wind energy, which could transform Algeria into a regional leader in sustainable energy. To achieve its 2035 renewable energy target and combat pressing climate challenges like water scarcity, wildfires, and desertification, Algeria must intensify international cooperation, streamline regulatory frameworks, and allocate greater resources to green energy initiatives. Implementing climate-resilient agriculture and expanding investments in desalination and irrigation are also critical to safeguarding its vulnerable population against the effects of climate change.

Algeria's prospects are intrinsically tied to addressing its profound socio-political challenges. These include entrenched executive dominance, pervasive corruption, limited judicial independence, and persistent human rights concerns. To foster public trust and encourage meaningful civic engagement, the government must prioritize transparency, intensify anti-corruption measures, strengthen democratic institutions, and create greater space for civil society and freedom of expression. Addressing youth unemployment and enhancing economic opportunities in underdeveloped regions are equally vital for promoting stability and averting social unrest.

With a strategic focus on governance reforms and human capital development, Algeria holds significant potential to transition from hydrocarbon dependency toward a diversified and sustainable economy. By addressing systemic barriers and leveraging its vast natural and human resources, the country can convert its challenges into opportunities, paving the way for an inclusive, resilient, and prosperous future with greater regional and global influence.

References

1. World Bank – https://datahelpdesk.worldbank.org/knowledgebase/articles/906519-world-bank-country-and-lending-groups

2. International Monetary Fund (IMF) – https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/DZA

3. Heritage Foundation – https://static.heritage.org/index/pdf/2024/2024_indexofeconomicfreedom_algeria.pdf

4. U.S. State Department – https://www.state.gov/reports/2023-investment-climate-statements/algeria

5. UN Trade and Development – https://unctad.org/publication/world-investment-report-2024

6. See Section on Energy & Climate

7. European Union - https://policy.trade.ec.europa.eu/eu-trade-relationships-country-and-region/countries-and-regions/algeria_en

8. European Union - https://neighbourhood-enlargement.ec.europa.eu/european-neighbourhood-policy/countries-region/algeria_en

9. https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2024/11/what-lessons-can-france-draw-algeria-spain-trade-reset

10. See Section on Fossil Fuels

11. The Observatory of Economic Complexity (OEC) – https://oec.world/en/profile/bilateral-country/chn/partner/dza

12. Ministry of Commerce, People's Republic of China – https://english.mofcom.gov.cn/News/SignificantNews/art/2024/art_8cfd6d08660544169135f708e41c660a.html

13. Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI) – https://www.ispionline.it/en/publication/algerias-balancing-act-between-historical-partnership-with-russia-and-independence-182969

14. U.S. State Department – https://www.state.gov/u-s-relations-with-algeria/

15. The Arab Weekly – https://thearabweekly.com/algeria-announces-road-connection-free-trade-area-mauritania

16. ClimateScope by BloombergNEF – https://www.global-climatescope.org/markets/dz/

17. Statista – https://www.statista.com/statistics/1314055/electricity-demand-algeria/

18. Hafner, M., Raimondi, P.P., Bonometti, B. (2023) – Geopolitics of Oil and Gas in the MENA Region. In: The Energy Sector and Energy Geopolitics in the MENA Region at a Crossroad. Perspectives on Development in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Region. Springer, Cham

19. U.S. International Trade Administration (ITA) – https://www.trade.gov/country-commercial-guides/algeria-renewable-energy#:~:text=State%2Downed%20companies%20dominate%20Algeria's,venture%20between%20Sonatrach%20and%20Sonelgaz).

20. Climate Change Performance Index (CCPI) – https://ccpi.org/country/dza/

21. Green Climate Fund - https://www.greenclimate.fund/document/advancing-national-adaptation-plan-process-algeria-address-short-and-medium-term-adaptation

22. International Monetary Fund (IMF) – Algeria Country Report Report No. 24/89; March 7, 2024

23. UNDP – Country Programme Document for Algeria (2023–2027)

24. U.S. State Department – https://www.state.gov/reports/2023-investment-climate-statements/algeria

25. IMF – Algeria Country Report No. 24/89; March 7, 2024

26. IMF – https://www.elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/002/2024/089/article-A001-en.xml

27. IMF – Algeria Country Report No. 24/89; March 7, 2024

28. Bertelsmann Transformation Index (BTI) – https://bti-project.org/en/reports/country-report/DZA

29. BBC – https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-14118852

30. Freedom House – https://freedomhouse.org/country/algeria

31. Amnesty International – https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/campaigns/2023/09/a-society-behind-bars-the-effects-of-algerias-widespread-crackdown-on-human-rights/

32. Amnesty International - https://www.amnesty.org/en/documents/mde28/8462/2024/en/

33. BTI – https://bti-project.org/en/reports/country-report/DZA#pos4

34. United Nations Regional Information Centre (UNRIC) – https://unric.org/en/far-from-the-headlines-after-50-years-refugees-from-western-sahara-are-still-in-camps/

35. Maghrebi.org – https://maghrebi.org/2024/04/24/tunisia-algeria-and-libya-meet-to-discuss-arab-maghreb-union/

36. Oxfam – https://www.oxfam.org/en/what-we-do/countries/algeria

37. French Institute for International and Strategic Affairs (IRIS) – https://www.iris-france.org/186600-is-algeria-tightening-its-migration-policy/

Acknowledgments

Development & Supervision

Lana Bleik

Lana Bleik is the Senior Research Program Coordinator for the North Africa Initiative at the Foreign Policy Institute at Johns Hopkins' School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS). With over 20 years of experience in international affairs, she specializes in program management and development. She holds an M.A. in Philosophy and a B.A. in Communication from the Sorbonne Pantheon-University of Paris I.

Author

Sima Beitinjaneh

Sima is a Master of International Public Policy (MIPP) Student at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS). She holds a B. Sc. in Computer and Electrical Engineering. Sima has also received an MBA focused on Finance. She has worked in engineering and finance for more than 12 years, especially in the energy and utilities industry. Sima decided to come to SAIS for a career shift to follow her passion about political science/culture/international policy.

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The Maghreb Weekly is produced by the North Africa Initiative of the Johns Hopkins University's School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) Foreign Policy Institute with a focus on developments that impact the region's dynamics. This weekly digest includes an overview of the latest published research, studies and reports from think tanks and policy centers, covering long-term perspectives and analyses of North Africa's challenges and opportunities.