Friday | Dec 28, 2018
A history of bear market bottoms
Looking back on all these bottoms reinforces a few things...
  1. It's hard to make money in the stock market. Particularly if you're a trader or a long-term investor.
  2. There are no rules for how the market bottoms. Stocks go down a lot, and then they keep going down more until they stop going down, and then they go up, sometimes a little and other times a lot.
  3. "The charts tell a plain story, but they do not indicate the future." - William Biggs (father of Barton)
(Irrelevant Investor | Dec 27)

The late cycle lament: the dual economy, Minsky moments, and other concerns
Overoptimism and overconfidence are two well-known psychological traits of our species. They are particularly dangerous in the late stages of an economic cycle where these terrible twins result in investors overestimating return and underestimating risk - a potentially lethal combination of errors. (GMO white paper | Dec 2018)

Four new votes to join Fed's rate-setting committee
Four veteran Federal Reserve officials - most of whom have signaled support for more interest-rate increases - will step into the limelight in 2019 as they become voters on the central bank's policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee. (The Wall Street Journal | Dec 24)
The Cyber Cafe
Cybersecurity news every Friday
EU watchdog to rule on data exchange among market regulators
The European Union's data watchdog will decide in coming weeks if financial regulators around the world can routinely swap information to keep markets clean without getting tangled up in the EU's new data protection regime.
Binge reading disorder
Hand-curated, chosen with love
How much of the internet is fake? Turns out, a lot of it, actually.
In late November, the Justice Department unsealed indictments against eight people accused of fleecing advertisers of $36 million in two of the largest digital ad-fraud operations ever uncovered. Digital advertisers tend to want two things: people to look at their ads and "premium" websites - i.e., established and legitimate publications - on which to host them. The two schemes at issue in the case, dubbed Methbot and 3ve by the security researchers who found them, faked both.

This is why economists are increasingly studying sports
Driven by the rise of game theory in economics, the influence of economics is evident from the way players are drafted or how much they are paid, through to individual coaching decisions, and even strategic shifts across entire leagues.