Jan. 13-19

This week, during a text exchange, one of the more powerful agents in the industry made this statement: “Save this text. Assuming (Washington QB Michael) Penix physical is good, six are going Round 1. Coaches will fall for (Michigan QB J.J. McCarthy) and (Oregon QB Bo Nix). . . save the text.”

Bold statement, but certainly not out of the question. Over the last 20 years, it’s become almost commonplace to see four QBs go in the first round. It’s happened seven times since 2003 (2021, 2020, 2018, 2012, 2011, 2004 and 2003). It nearly happened last year, with Kentucky’s Will Levis just missing Day 1 at No. 33. In fact, four passers is practically the over/under lately. But six? That seems like a lot. Or does it? 

It promises to be the great debate among draftniks and people around the game as we advance toward April. We reached out to several friends in the game to get their respective takes. How many QBs will go in the first round? The answers vary.

• Former Titans executive Blake Beddingfield: “I think three are worthy of taking in the first round.  But with so many QB-needy teams there could be a total of five. . . (North Carolina’s Drake) Maye, (USC’s Caleb) Williams, (LSU’s Jayden) Daniels. Nix, Penix and McCarthy are not first rounders.”   
• Former Bears and Giants executive Greg Gabriel: “Minimum three, maximum five. . . the real number is more than likely four. . . a QB guru I respect feels (McCarthy) will have a strong spring after interviews and workouts.” 
• Former Titans and Falcons scout Rodrik David: “Five. Williams. Maye. Penix. Daniels. Nix.”
• Former Raiders Director of Pro Scouting Dane Vandernat: “I see four going — Williams, Maye, Daniels and McCarthy. I think McCarthy is underrated, and a lot is made of the limited attempts/post-scandal production, but he routinely displays the aptitude, skill, athleticism, and physical skill to warrant 1^st-round selection.”
• Former Packers and Saints scout Matt Boockmeier: “Four total. Penix slips. Not because of one game, but because his accuracy and decision-making are further behind the others.”

We also reached out to a few members of the NFL scouting community. There was no consensus for them, either.

• “I think it’s 4 QBs go in 1^st. Two on the outside looking in.”
• “Here’s what I think: Williams, Maye, Daniels, Nix. Penix and (Tulane’s Michael) Pratt on the bubble. Today not 1st round, but by April could go late 1st to early 3rd?”
• “I see five being a fairly accurate guesstimate.”
• “Tough one to predict… I’d guess 3. You could put me down for 6, too.”
• “Caleb (Williams), Drake (Maye) and Jayden Daniels seem like locks. I think JJ (McCathy) goes for sure, prob in the mid-to-late (first) round. So I’d definitely say four. I don’t think Penix goes (first round).” 
• “I’m saying 4. I’m not a McCarthy guy at all. I think one of Penix/Nix goes in (the first round) after the top 3.”
• “Probably four or five, although I'm hearing a lot of stock down buzz on Drake Maye. One guy told me 3rd round. A QB guru I trust ranked ‘em Daniels, Williams, Penix, McCarthy and Maye. I just don't think Penix goes in the first round. I think it's all media hype.”

The next step in the process takes place in Mobile in about a week and a half when Penix and Nix seek to solidify their draft profiles at the Senior Bowl. And who knows? Maybe after a week in Alabama, Tennessee’s Joe Milton and Pratt may enter the conversation. 

No one will know for a few months how many actually go on Day 1, and we won’t know for several years how many belonged in the first round. Still it’s kind of a fun exercise, isn’t it? 

It’s a topic we’ll revisit between now and draft day, as will draft media as well as everyone else in the football world. In the meantime, here’s a look at what happened during another busy week in the business of football. 

Catching Up: Thomas Pack, 33, spent five years, officially, with the Browns, but played a role in a total of eight draft cycles with Cleveland. These days, however, he’s in a much more important line of work. We caught up with him last week. 

• Where are you living and what are you doing now?: “I joined the order of Friars Minor, better known as the Franciscans, to become a religious brother and, down the road, to pursue the priesthood. I’m currently in Silver Springs, Md., on the edge of Washington, D.C., and . . . doing ministry. The Franciscans focus on serving the poor and most marginalized of society, and hopefully God will send me to seminary in a few years.” 

• Do you miss the job? What do you miss most?: “Yeah, it’s a bit of a mixed bag. I miss being part of a team, and a group of coaches or scouts. You’re kinda in the trenches and grinding week in and week out, and there’s something fun about that. I love the business, the high stakes nature of the work. I started out coaching high school, then one year of D-III, then I got to Cleveland when I was still 24. Each level you move up, there’s so little room for error. There’s something fun about that. You have to achieve at a high level. I was also able to work with some phenomenal people. I first came in under (former Cleveland GM) Sashi Brown, and (current Browns GM) Andrew (Berry) was No. 2, so there was high pressure, but it was fun to be there. I don’t miss the hours, and even in this life, where so much of my life is meditation or contemplation, I’m having to relearn how to have a healthy work-life balance. I would say now, in football, I enjoyed the high achievement and high expectations, but having to learn a new environment has been interesting. And some of the meditation is as hard as cranking out scouting reports. When you have to deal with your own quirks and vices, it can be tough work.” 

• Do you keep in touch with any of your former colleagues?: “I check in with a good number of people I worked with in Cleveland. Some have bounced around, but to be honest, some of the front office are the same people as when I was there. Andrew Berry was No. 2 to Sashi when I was there. It took a lot to bring the roster down and build it back up. The fun part is, in some ways, I feel like I’m still a part of it, the continued plan of what we were trying to build. Having a new life makes that difficult, but rooting for them, it’s the same philosophy and most of the same crew. The same philosophy being carried out and I get to enjoy the fruits form a distance.”

• Do you go to any live games (HS/college/pro)?: “If I’m not working, I’m actually not a huge fan of the live product. There’s commercial breaks, and you’re sitting around. When I was scouting and coaching, you’re talking to a player and you’re asking, ‘what are we waiting on?’ I love watching games on TV. I can go to the bathroom when I want to, and the snacks are cheaper. I’ll pick a few big games on TV (to watch). I don’t have all day to watch football, and you don’t watch football the same. The best is during the college football playoffs. You can see the live end zone shot, that’s best because I can get something like that and I can watch a team, like their scheme and what they run, so I can see what they’re building. So not as much the live product but I do enjoy soaking it up on TV when I can. 

• Are there any players you love to watch and/or feel close to due to your work in the game?: “Yeah, I mean, certainly, there’s a good number of players that you remember being in the draft meetings or whatever, and guys that were on the team before. One that stands out for me, I remember P.J. Walker, the QB. He wasn’t even on our back board my first or second year in Cleveland, and there was that offensive tackle that came out of Temple same year as him, Dion Dawkins, and I was watching Dawkins, and this QB kept popping off the field, and he wasn’t on our back board, so I wrote him up, and it has been fun to watch him through the years. He balled in some other leagues, and had a run at Carolina, and it’s come full circle because he’s at Cleveland now. It’s usually the guys who stuck to it, scratched and clawed their ways through the league. But as a scouting assistant, I was always trying to chat up players pre-practice because I didn’t want my only interaction to be when I was there to cut them. So there were a lot of relationships I built up over the years. Any number of people who came through the specialists room. It’s such a blast working under Sashi and Andrew Berry, and the big thing is rooting of them. If those guys move up and get jobs elsewhere, I’ll be big fans of them there. We brought in a lot more data-driven, analytics-minded philosophies, and we were so criticized for it, but now you see the league move that way. So I’m really rooting for those guys and what we were able to build.”

Review the latest from other former NFL scouts and executives by accessing our Catching Up archive here. Want to hear from a former scout, or know someone who may be interested in being interviewed? Let us know.

The Scouting the League Podcast: This week, former NFL scout Rodrik David and ITL’s Neil Stratton welcomed former NFL scout Jimmy Noel to the podcast. The trio took a deep dive into NFL front offices, discussing several GMs, dissecting why some haven’t gotten a chance, and who might be the best candidates for this year’s openings. They also discussed Noel’s time with the Browns and how it shaped his philosophy on scouting. Make sure you don’t miss it. 

Where’s Jerry?: This week, former NFL executive Jerry Angelo, who heads ITL’s interview prep program, touches down in Dallas after an engagement in South Florida last week. If your client trains at any of the major Metroplex training facilities, may we suggest you consider work with Jerry? We have very reasonable rates and still a little flexibility in our schedule. Contacdt us so we can put together a plan for your client. Whether he’s a potential 1 or he’ll be fighting to land a UDFA deal, we have a price and a plan for you. Reach out by responding to this email and let’s get started.

Where’s Neil?: This week, ITL’s Neil Stratton heads to Dallas Friday for a weekend stay at the Shrine Bowl. He returns to the ITL home office Sunday, then it’s off to Mobile on Monday for a three-day stay. If you’re in town, please make sure you find him to say hey. 

Next week: We’ll begin the week at the home office, but end it in Frisco, Texas, for the Shrine Bowl. Then it’s on to Mobile for the Senior Bowl. Here’s what we’ll be working on. 

·      It’s not just all-star games taking place (though that’s a big part of the pre-draft process right now. There’s also a lot happening on the UFL personnel side, plus the music hasn’t stopped yet and most GM and even college head coach chairs aren’t filled yet. That means there will be plenty of fodder for our Rep Rumblings. Make sure you’re checking them daily. 

·      Our Signings Grid has more than 800 names, but still a few blanks beside the players that are playing in the Shrine and Senior Bowls. Our focus next week will be on filling those in, as well as the training destinations for as many players as possible. We’ll also slowly start filling in the confirmed NIC invitations. It’s your one-stop shop for everything that’s happening in the game.

·      Here we are post-MLK Day and there are still college head coaching vacancies. While we wait to see who gets the San Jose State job, we’ll continue to fill in blanks and answer the lingering questions in ourCollege Coaching Changes Grid. 

·      It’s probably time we kick off our Scouting Changes Grid for the 2024 offseason, as well. We’ll get that posted next week. 

·      We’re running behind on December’s Agent Changes as well as our Agents by Total Clients and now it’s time for our January editions of both. We’ll try to play catch-up next week. 

·      Once we’re sure everyone is in place for 2024, we’ll update our 2024 College Head Coach-Agents board. Here’s last year’s.

·      We’re also eager to update our NFL Head Coach-Agent board, but we’re still a ways away from having all 32 in place. Here’s last year’s. 

·      The Scouting the League podcast returns with former Chiefs and Browns scout Jimmy Noel, who joined Right Step Advising’s Rodrik David and ITL’s Neil Stratton last week for a rollicking discussion. Jimmy returns this week for part two, which will have a heavier focus on his work in analytics. How does he see it shaping scouting in the next decade?

·      We’ll also be back with another edition of the Succeed in Football blog. We’re likely to return to all-star games as our focus, but maybe not. Make sure to check it out and see. 

If you’re not logging into Inside the League this time of year, you’re running behind. You’re better than that. If you’re not already part of the ITL family, it’s a great time to join.