Oct. 30-Nov. 5
7-11: The number of players rated as first-rounders by all seven services has swollen to 11 from seven in September. In are Liberty QB Malik Willis (average draft slot of 8.43), Ole Miss QB Matt Corral (9.57), Florida DC Kaiir Elam (16), Ohio St. WO Chris Olave (16.29), Purdue DT George Karlaftis (18.14) and Cincinnati DC Ahmad ‘Sauce’ Gardner (21). Out are Texas A&M DT DeMarvin Leal (dropped from the first round by Walter Football, but No. 3 overall per Yahoo! Sports’ Eric Edholm, a new addition to this month’s review of mocks) and Oklahoma QB Spencer Rattler.
Marvelous Three: Three players just missed being unanimous. In addition to Leal, they are Ohio St. WO GarrettWilson (rated as high as No. 8 by ESPN’s Todd McShay) and Iowa OG Tyler Linderbaum (No. 8 per PFF). Who snubbed them? In both cases, Walter Football said they didn’t measure up. More on Walter later.
About Rattler: We’ve never seen such a precipitous drop from a player in our five years reviewing top mocks. Immediately following the ’21 draft, Rattler was No. 1 overall on three boards (PFF, The Athletic’s Dane Brugler and Walter Football) and an average of No. 5.85 across all seven boards. By late September, Rattler was still on all seven boards, but was no longer seen as a No. 1 overall by any service (his average pick had fallen to 7.71), and Pro Football Network had him going as late as 19. As of today, Rattler is not rated as a first-rounder by any of the seven services reviewed. Before today, no player has ever gone from a first-rounder on all seven boards in September to disappearing from all seven by November.
Duck Dynasty: With Rattler out of the way, Thibodeaux has solidified himself as the consensus No. 1. Only CBS’ Chris Trapasso doesn’t see him as No. 1 (he’s got him at 2). However, the biggest riser of the season is Michigan DT Aidan Hutchinson. Though he was on all five boards at last check in September, he was lowest-rated of the seven with an average draft position of 13.71. At the time, he was rated as low as No. 25 by Pro Football Network and was only a top-ten pick per two services (Trapasso had him at 8 and Walter Football at 6). Six weeks later, he’s at an average pick of 5.86 and he’s top 10 on every board, with The Draft Scout’s Matt Miller rating him as the No. 2 pick.
Fancy passing: Teams looking for quarterbacks are in luck, per the draftniks. Six passers got at least two first-round votes. In addition to Willis and Corral, neither of whom were unanimous first-rounders last time, Pittsburgh’s Kenny Pickett (four boards, including No. 9 per Yahoo’s Edholm), North Carolina’s Sam Howell (four boards, including No. 12 per Pro Football Network), Cincinnati’s Desmond Ridder (three boards, with Miller slotting him at No. 17) and Nevada’s Carson Strong (two boards, No. 11 by Trapasso). Six other signal-callers have made at least one appearance in the previous two surveys. For what it’s worth, two services (Pro Football Network and Walter Football) have Corral at No. 2, while Miller has Willis at 3.
Living on the limb: As always, Walter Football is boldest in its predictions with nine outliers (players rated as first-rounders only by Walter). They are Penn State DC Tariq Castro-Fields (8), Florida St. DE Jermaine Johnson (11), Georgia DE Travon Walker (16), Oklahoma DT Perrion Winfrey (17), Florida DT Zachary Carter (20), Penn St. OT Rasheed Walker (22), Alabama DC Josh Jobe (26), Houston DE Logan Hall (27) and Virginia Tech DC Jermaine Waller (30).
There’s plenty more to chew on. We encourage you to check out the entire survey to see who’s rising and falling. We’ll be back for another look before all-star play starts. In the meantime, here’s a look at what else we saw, heard, read and said about the business of college and pro football this week.
Catching Up: Ray Biggs, who just turned 75, spent 17 years with the Oilers and Titans following five years with National Football Scouting. We caught up with him last week.
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Where are you living and what are you doing now?: “I’m living in Columbia Falls, Mont. Up here it’s beautiful country with great folks and great golf, which I play whenever I can. We used to live in Selah, Wash., right outside of Yakima, where I coached at the (junior) college and was dean of students.”
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Do you miss the job? What do you miss most?: “You got so many good coaches around the country, and you become good friends with them, and you miss visiting with them, and talking to their players and visiting with them and hearing their aspirations. I always enjoyed visiting with them. They thought we were their key to the next step. It was always good to see them. You got guys you work with, when you’re at the combine or doing a workout, and you have to work together, and working at colleges looking at tape, you have to work with them, and there’s camaraderie built.”
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Do you keep in touch with any of your former colleagues?: “(Longtime NFL souts) Phil Neri and Mike Ackerley, I talk to them regularly. (Former Titans exec) Blake Beddingfield, too; we had a great crew at Houston and Nashville. (Former Titans GM) Floyd Reese was a good guy, and I miss him.”
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Do you go to any live games (HS/college/pro)?: “I go to a lot of college games, mostly Montana State University, where I graduated from. I’ve only missed one game this year so far, and I enjoy those. A group of us that played together get together every Saturday for home games. I haven’t been to any pro games, but I still work the combine for (NFS head) Jeff Foster. Last year we didn’t have one, obviously, but it appears we’ll have one this year.”
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Are there any players you love to watch and/or feel close to due to your work in the game?: “There used to be a lot more when I was just finished scouting, but I’ve always been a defensive guy. I like to watch (49ers DE Nick) Bosa and those guys come off the edge, and the good defensive tackles that can control and shed those guys, and how quick they are at 330 pounds. When I go to games at Montana State, I have my binoculars, and I know some of the linemen, and sometimes they play really well, and sometimes maybe they didn’t get fired up for the game (laughs).”
Review the latest from other former NFL scouts and executives by accessing our Catching Up archive here. Want to hear from a former scout, or know someone who may be interested in being interviewed? Let us know.
Grading Blake: You already know that former Titans executive Blake Beddingfield is part of the ITL team, and writes hundreds of reports every year on college. In fact, he’s done it for five years now. His reports include a list of the games viewed; the player’s complete strengths and weaknesses and how they will play on the next level; and a draft projection based on his skillset. Agents, players and parents have ordered them over the years, and we can turn them around in 24-48 hours. Cost is $100 plus tax ($108.25) – all we need is a player name, position and school, no matter the size, and we do the rest -- but are they really accurate? We decided to review Blake’s reports from 2020, and we were pleased with the results. Today, in our Succeed in Football blog, we looked at a few of Blake’s player summations that stood out the most. If you just followed the media, you know they were much higher on players like Wisconsin OB Zach Baun and Washington QB Jacob Eason than Blake, who was making draft predictions months before all-star games, the combine and pro days. On the other hand, years before they were drafted, Blake was accurately predicting that Miami DE Gregory Rousseau, Notre Dame WO Chase Claypool and others would be drafted highly and go on to be productive NFL players. Make sure to check out today’s post for more of Blake’s looks which turned out to be highly prescient.
Zooming with Blake: Want to know who the sleepers are for the ’22 draft, but don’t know who to ask? We got you. Tuesday night, Blake will take to Zoom to discuss 50 off-the-grid players from all over the country who’ve caught his eye. Last November, he did the same, touting a number of low-profile players who are now on NFL rosters. Cost is just $35 plus tax – about what you’d pay to park your car for a few hours in a major city – as Blake goes over each player in depth, giving guests a good idea of what each player’s true NFL potential is. If you don’t know much about Blake, he’s been a guest on our podcast and regularly guests on radio broadcasts around Nashville. You won’t find a more credible person breaking down Day 3/UDFA types that could move higher, and we hope you can join us. Register here.
NIL Zoom, take II: So our three-class NIL Workshop didn’t work for many of you. Three nights is a hardship, and $150 is a little high. We get it. We’re gonna try again, and we think you’ll like it better this time. This Wednesday, Nov. 10, at 8 p.m. ET, we’ll have a totally free NIL class with Dynamic Talent founder Trevor Swenson (who joined us two months ago for a quick-and-dirty overview of NIL, which you can watch here). Trevor will talk about the nuts and bolts of setting up your NIL business – setting up your LLC, what to know about taxes, how you should guide your clients, what you need to tell them, how your state differs from others, and how to promote your NIL business. Bottom line, in an hour, he’ll teach you how to do everything but recruit and sign clients and find them opportunities. To join us, all you have to do is ask for the Zoom link here. If you feel Trevor has something to offer, join us for our session Wednesday, Nov. 17, in which he’ll provide his secrets on identifying the right clients, gaining their confidence and signing them, then finding them opportunities with local and national businesses. Cost will be $100, but don’t pay yet. Join us Wednesday and decide. Email us if you want in.
Scouting Changes Grid: We’re well into our Know Your Scouts series now, having completed breakdowns of the Giants, Jaguars, Jets, Lions and Packers this week. That always lends itself to discovering a few moves we missed, for one reason or another. Here’s what we dug up this week:
All of the moves we missed have been added to our Scouting Changes Grid, which is really growing. At 268 moves, we’re double the number we normally see in the offseason. Though every move wasn’t earth-shattering, the bottom line is that the 2021 offseason was super-busy, even if the perception was that it was pretty slow.
New Agent Orientation sessions: We’re tentatively looking at two Zoom sessions the week before Thanksgiving (Tuesday, Nov. 16, and Thursday, Nov. 18) specifically for new agents. If you’re an ITL client, there’s no extra charge as we discuss the costs of representation (which can be substantial if you’re not careful) and how to get around excess costs, and we introduce you to several all-star game organizers. As we decide when, or if, we’ll have the ITL Rising Contract Advisor Newsletter this year, we see these sessions as crucial, even if you already feel like you know the basics of player representation. Make sure you’re part of the ITL team so you won’t miss a minute. They’re coming later this month.
Next week: Zoom sessions head our schedule as we work to get agents big and small ready for signing season and the vagaries of the NIL era. Tuesday, former Titans exec Blake Beddingfield joins us to discuss under-the-radar prospects for 2022 (register here), and Wednesday, Dynamic Talent’s Trevor Swenson hosts a free Zoom session on how to start an NIL practice (let us know if you want in). We’ll give five more teams a look (Panthers, Patriots, Raiders, Rams and Ravens) in our Know Your Scouts series, and we’ll continue updating our Scouting Changes Grid and our College Coaching Changes Grid as the football business continues its fast pace and its usual transition. In our Rep Rumblings, we’ll look at all the all-star invitations as they roll in, we’ll track NIL signings and movement, and follow all the developments as search firms are hired by colleges, and candidates emerge. In our Succeed in Football blog, we’ll have new ideas on how to look at the business of the game, and we’ve also got our YouTube page, our books, our podcasts and more. There’s so much to know and so much to discover in the best game the world’s ever known. Come see for yourself.
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