April 23-29
Wow! Many in both the media and scouting communities had low expectations for this year’s draft, given its lack of blue-chip quarterbacks and no lead-pipe cinch at No. 1. Despite those expectations, however, last night’s first round was unique and, at least in our eyes, entertaining. For example, take the top pick in the draft.
How meteoric was Georgia DE Travon Walker’s rise? Walker wasn’t on one (not one!) board in the first round of mocks we tracked last May. He made his first (and only) appearance (at No. 13) in September (congrats, Walter Football). By November, once again, Walter was the only service to call him a first-rounder. It wasn’t until Christmas Eve that Walker “arrived” in the eyes of the major services, debuting at 8 with Yahoo! Sports’ Eric Edholm, 11 with Pro Football Network and 27 via ESPN’s Todd McShay (Walter still had him in the top 32, but had dropped him to 22). Still, he was far from a consensus No. 1 overall.
Entering the combine, however, Pro Football Focus was the only service still not sold, with Walter highest on the Bulldog (No. 7). Still, though last week all seven services had him on Day 1, only one (CBS Sports’ Chris Trapasso) had him as the top pick; his composite draft slot then was No. 3.
It was a far cry from previous seasons. Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence was a wire-to-wire No. 1 last year. In the 2020 draft, LSU’s Joe Burrow was No. 1 on six of seven boards by the first week of December. By November of 2018, Oklahoma’s Kyler Murray was a first-rounder on all seven boards and was No. 1 on five boards the week before the 2019 draft. Even Oklahoma’s Baker Mayfield, who appeared on none of the seven services’ boards immediately following the 2017 draft, had risen to first-round status on all seven mocks by March. Furthermore, Pro Football Focus had him No. 1 overall a month before the draft.
It may be years before we see an out-of-nowhere No. 1 like Walker. However, that was far from the only thing we noticed about last night’s first 32 picks. Here are a few more observations.
You have to go back to 2015 to find a year when Athletes First or CAA made a later first appearance. Back then, seven agencies’ clients were picked before Michigan State DC Trae Waynes, an Athletes First client, went to the Vikings at 11. Stanford OT Andrus Peat, a CAA client, went two picks later to the Saints.
But it wasn’t just quality but quantity. Over the past 10 years, CAA has averaged 6.3 first-rounders each class, with a high of 11 in 2018, while A1 has repped first-rounder at a 4.1/year rate; the last two years, the firm has had eight clients each among the first 32. Last night, CAA had three first-rounders, less than half their average, while Athletes First had five, which bested their average but fell off from last year’s eight. Does all this mean the economics of the game mean the era of the super-agencies is over? It’s too early to tell, but we’ll be watching to see.
Salute: Three agencies had their highest picks ever Thursday night. Elite Loyalty Sports, Walker’s agency, had its first-ever top pick (the firm’s previous high was Oklahoma’s Trent Williams at No. 4 in 2010). VaynerSports, which reps the No. 2 pick, Michigan DE Aidan Hutchinson, had its highest previous pick in 2018 (Iowa DC Josh Jackson at 2/45). Finally, The Ballengee Group works with the No. 3 pick, LSU DC Derek Stingley; the firm’s previous high was Clemson OH Travis Etienne last year (1/25). Also, Trey Stone of Navigate Sports co-repped Texas A&M OG Kenyon Green with BC Sports; it’s Navigate’s first-ever Day 1 pick.
Best available: In addition to Willis, the most popular players left, according to the seven draft services we tracked, are Clemson DC Andrew Booth (five boards); Cincinnati QB Desmond Ridder and Minnesota DE Boye Mafe (four boards); and Michigan OB David Ojabo, North Dakota St. WO Christian Watson and Georgia OB Nakobe Dean (three boards each). Nine other players appeared on at least one board last week, with Ole Miss QB Matt Corral highest on anyone’s list (No. 11 per CBS’ Trapasso).
Looking back: Back in our first review of mocks in May, 10 players were rated as first-rounders by all seven services. Oregon DE Kayvon Thibodeaux, Notre Dame SS Kyle Hamilton, Florida DC Kaiir Elam, Purdue DE George Karlaftis and Ohio State WO Garrett Wilson and Stingley all made it to Day 1. Three are still on the board (North Carolina QB Sam Howell, Texas A&M DT DeMarvin Leal and USC DE Drake Jackson) and one stayed in school (South Carolina QB Spencer Rattler). For what it’s worth, Hutchinson was on six boards (snubbed by PFF), while USC QB Kedon Slovis was on five boards (with ESPN’s Todd McShay slotting him at No. 2 overall and Walter Football had him at 3). Slovis has since transferred to Pitt.
Training Day: There was plenty of diversity on the combine prep side, as well. EXOS, as usual, had plenty of success with 12 players readying themselves for the combine at one of their three top facilities in Arizona, Texas and Florida. Sports Academy in Thousand Oaks, Calif., had two picks in the first six (Hutchinson and NC State OT Ikem Ekwonu). Travelle Gaines made his return to the first round for his work with Thibodeaux. Each of Athletes First’s five first-rounders trained at their own proprietary training facility, while offensive line specialist Duke Manyweather trained three players in the top 20. Special commendations also go out to ITL partners at House of Athletes (Ohio State WO Chris Olave), TEST Football Academy (Pitt QB Kenny Pickett) and Bommarito Performance Systems (Tulsa OT Tyler Smith), who each trained one first-rounder. Also of note: McKinney, Texas-based Michael Johnson Performance, which is now defunct, bid farewell to the industry by readying a first-rounder in Georgia FS Lewis Cine.
That’s gold, Jerry! Gold!: This year, former NFL GM Jerry Angelo, who heads our interview prep program, worked with more first-rounders this year than ever (four). Hats off to a job well done by one of the true gentlemen of the game.
Surprise!: On the other hand, there were several players few, if any, draft services expected to go in the first round as of early- to mid-April. For example, not one service had Georgia IB Quay Walker as a first-rounder going back to last May; he went No. 22 to Green Bay. The same can be said for Chattanooga OG Cole Strange (1/29, Patriots). Also:
-
Six services had Iowa OC Tyler Linderbaum in the first round.
-
Five had Georgia DT Devonte Wyatt as well as Elam.
-
Four services had Penn State WO Jahan Dotson, Texas A&M OG Kenyon Green and Michigan FS Daxton Hillin the top 32.
-
Two had Tulsa OT Tyler Smith (Pro Football Focus and Walter Football).
-
Only Walter Football had Georgia FS Lewis Cine as a first-rounder, and they nailed his selection at 32.
We’re just getting started, and we’ll be back next week with a long look at Days 2 and 3 of the draft, as we always do. Day 2 is already under way, so we’ll let you get back to the draft. In the meantime, here’s a look at what else we saw, heard, read and said about the college and pro football industry this week.
Asking the experts: We track several established draft services this time of year, but sometimes, we like to get takes from people who actually got paid to make picks. That’s why we asked three of our friends, all of them former NFL scouting directors, how they’d handle things if they were still in the league. This week, we put them in the shoes of Saints GM Mickey Loomis and Assistant GM Jeff Ireland, who entered Thursday holding two picks in the top 20 (16 and 19). Former NFL executives Jeff Bauer (Jets), Greg Gabriel (Bears and Giants) and Blake Beddingfield (Titans) each gave us their take on how they’d handle things, and their respective takes on things turned out to match very closely with what happened last night. Be sure to check out each of their takes on our blog at Succeed in Football.
Catching Up: Jim Zeches, 71, spent 16 years in scouting, four with the Niners and 12 with Washington, following 28 years in coaching at four college stops (UCLA, Northwestern, Weber State and Washington State) and a five-year high school stint. We caught up with him earlier this week.
-
Where are you living and what are you doing now? “We live in Tempe, Ariz. We moved here about 20 years ago in my second year with the Niners. We were living in Pullman, Wash. It was just difficult to get in and out of there as far as getting where I needed to be in the fall, so the team suggested I move someplace that was more central and easier to get to. So we moved to Tempe. I’m retired and kinda just enjoying life and spending time with my son Brian, my daughter-in-law Ashley, and our two grandkids. We’ve also been doing some traveling.”
-
Do you miss the job? What do you miss most? “I do not miss the travel. That got to be a grind, you know? It really did, and what really wore you out was, after the combine, you’d go into March, and every day you’d be in a different place. That grind the last couple years really took its toll, but what I miss is the relationships with other scouts, because . . . I did the West Coast the whole 16 years, and I made some good friends who did that area, so I miss those guys. We’d have some good days sitting in the film room evaluating tape and telling stories, and also I was fortunate to have coached on the West Coast, so I would see a lot of my old coaching friends when I went to the different schools, and that helped me get information some of the other guys didn’t get.”
-
Do you keep in touch with any of your former colleagues? “I sure do. Guys I worked with, guys I scouted with. Bill Baker, who was with a number of teams; Russ Bolinger, who I scouted with, and he was with a number of different teams; Jim Abrams, who was with the 49ers and now the Raiders; Mark Bruener with the Steelers; Matt Hand, who was with Buffalo and now with the Raiders; Terry Wooden with the Saints; and then Tim Gribble and Dave Whittington from the Redskins. When they’re out here early in the fall, we usually try to catch a meal. There’s a number of different guys I try to stay in touch with. With Brian in the profession, I’ll run into different people and coaches that way, too. I wasn’t just gonna completely cut myself off, and living in the Phoenix area, there’s a lot of scouts who live here.”
-
Do you go to any live games (HS/college/pro)? “You know, it’s kinda funny, when I retired, on Friday nights, my wife and I will usually grab dinner then find a high school team around here and support the different schools and athletes, and just kinda sit back and enjoy it and watch those games. And if Washington State happens to be playing (Arizona State), I’ll usually go to a game, and this year, we’ll probably hit a couple of the (Arizona) games because one of my former position players, Johnny Nansen, is the new (defensive coordinator) at Arizona. I went down one day in spring and watched practice. I still try to keep a little contact. When Brian was working with the Redskins, we’d catch a game. In fact, one year, 2018, he was scouting a game at Lambeau Field, so my wife and I planned that and went up there and went to Lambeau. I had never been in all my time coaching and scouting, and we went up there and went to the game and saw some of my wife’s friends and family and made a week of it. My first year out, we went back to Chicago where we used to live, the old neighborhood, went to Northwestern, talked to some coaches, and then went to the Notre Dame-USC game. I had never been to Notre Dame. Those were some bucket list things.”
-
Are there any players you love to watch and/or feel close to due to your work in the game? “I kinda follow the Chiefs. Brian was with the Chiefs for a year. (Chiefs head coach) Andy Reid played at Glendale (Community) College in L.A. I coached at a high school in Glendale, so I knew the coaches. Andy is a great guy. (Chiefs QB) Patrick Mahomes is a heck of a player. He wears 15, and my cousin was a backup to (former Chiefs QB) Len Dawson, and he wore 15 when they beat the Vikings in the Super Bowl, so I kind of have a passion for No. 15 on the Chiefs. It’s just history there. And then also I like to watch (Bills QB) Josh Allen. He’s a kid that, when I would be driving from L.A. to Fresno, you go down through the San Joaquin Valley, and he played at a little farm town called Firebaugh, and he begged Fresno State to take him. Anyway, I just love to see how he’s developed. The thing is, when they got his mechanics straightened out, that’s how he’s developed the last couple years. Farm kid, hard-working kid, played three sports in high school, he didn’t have all these QB gurus, and just a good old hard-working kid, and I just love watching him play, though I hold my breath whenever he runs the ball.”
Review the latest from other former NFL scouts and executives by accessing our Catching Up archive here. Want to hear from a former scout, or know someone who may be interested in being interviewed? Let us know.
Rookie Mini-Camp Schedule: Once the draft is over, it’s time for the UDFA chase and then rookie mini-camp invites. With such a deep class and competition higher than it’s ever been for a place on a 90 or at least in camp, you better have every tool at your disposal. That includes our list of alma maters for NFL coaches as well as scouts, but that’s not all. You also need our team-by-team list of mini-camps so you’ll know which teams can afford you the chance to send a client to not one, but two, camps. Do that with our big board of all 32 teams. Though we still have one blank left, we feel you’ll find it valuable. It’s here.
Agents by Total Clients (Take 2): Last week, we produced our monthly list of agents by total clients, but the numbers were way off for reasons we’ve never figured out. Well, the NFLPA got everything straightened out, so we re-worked the list. This time, though numbers are still a little low with free agency under way, the numbers make a lot more sense and there are many more contract advisors who made the cut. Check out all 98 agents on the big board here.
Next week: You already know this, but if you don’t, here’s a rundown of what’s ahead. We’ll break down everything that happens tonight and tomorrow, looking at the agencies that performed best (and the ones that dropped off a little), the training facilities that shone brightest, the draft services that were most accurate and more. We’ll discuss several of our most popular features, including the agencies with the most combine invitees who get snubbed as well as those who have the most non-invitees get drafted. We’ll also look at the draft from a value points standing, totaling up the scores and telling you the winners and losers (and how their points totals fit into our running score dating back to 2007). But most of all, our Rep Rumblings will be fire this week as we pass along everything we hear on the NFL scouting trail. We’re watching about a half-dozen teams that we expect to make plenty of changes, and we know of a handful of promotions that will be announced in the coming week. We’ll be posting everything we get on our Twitter account and posting the totals on our Scouting Changes Grid. If the scouting industry interests you and you’re trying to plot a path into NFL player evaluation, you’re going to want to check out our content this week. We’ll also have a post on our weekly blog, Succeed in Football; we’ll have five more Profile Reports (Charlotte, Cincinnati, Clemson, Coastal Carolina and Colorado); and whatever else we can come up with that will serve the people of college and pro football. If things slow down, we hope to publish our agent changes for the March to April period. Also, don’t forget about our agent exam prep materials, the best in the business. The first round is over, but the fun is just getting started. Join us!
|
|
|
