July 2-8
Each spring, shortly after the draft, we like to survey seven top draft services to see who has the best crystal ball. As you know, we’ll track them through next spring, with an eye toward comparing the services to see which are throwing darts and which are truly prescient. It may not be scientific, and it may not be agent- or scout-focused, but it’s pretty fun.
Today, we posted the list, with 74 players tabbed as first-rounders by at least one of the seven services. Here are a few observations.
The consensus No. 1 pick is. . .: Ohio State QB C.J. Stroud, and surprisingly, it’s not close. Four services (Pro Football Network, ESPN’s Todd McShay, The Athletic’s Dane Brugler and Walter Football) all made Stroud the top selection (ESPN’s Matt Miller was lowest on him at No. 5). Miller had Alabama OB Will Anderson No. 1 overall; CBS’s Chris Trapasso liked Kentucky QB Will Levis most; and Pro Football Focus went with Alabama QB Bryce Young at the top.
All-Unanimous Team: Ten players got the first-round nod by all seven services. In addition to Stroud (average draft slot of 2.29), Anderson (2.71), Young (3.29) and Levis (6.29), the other six were Georgia DT Jalen Carter (4.29), Ohio St. WO Jaxon Smith-Nijgba (9.86), Alabama DC Eli Ricks (13.57), LSU WO Kayshon Boutte (13.86), Northwestern OT Peter Skoronski (15.14), Clemson DE Myles Murphy (17.29) and Texas OH Bijan Robinson (21).
Just missed: Six players were one vote away from being unanimous first-rounders. They were USC WO Jordan Addison, Clemson DT Bryan Bresee, Ohio State OT Paris Johnson, Notre Dame TE Michael Mayer, Georgia DC Kelee Ringo and Oregon IB Noah Sewell. Pro Football Focus’s Michael Renner snubbed Sewell and Mayer; CBS’s Trapasso decided Bresee and Ringo weren’t worthy; and Walter Football passed on Addison and Johnson.
Calling all signal-callers: This draft class has been hailed as strong under center, and based on our first look at the mocks, it will be a good year to draft a QB. A total of 10 passers could be selected on Day 1, per the services we surveyed. In addition to Stroud, Young and Levis, Florida’s Anthony Richardson (five boards); Miami’s Tyler Van Dyke (four boards); BYU’s Jaren Hall (three boards), Stanford’s Tanner McKee (two boards), NC State’s Devin Leary(two boards); and Arkansas’ K.J. Jefferson and Louisville’s Malik Cunningham (one board each) also drew the praise of at least one of the seven services.
The outliers: We love it when a service goes out on a limb, and Walter Football always delivers. This year, they’ve got eight players rated as first-rounders that no one else does, three more than any other service. Their eight board-busters are North Carolina DC Storm Duck (No. 13), Illinois DC Devon Witherspoon (18), Texas Tech DE Tyree Wilson (19), Iowa St. DE Will McDonald IV (22), Arkansas’ Jefferson (24), Maryland WO Dontay Demus Jr. (27), Florida FS Rashad Torrence II (28) and Tennessee WO Cedric Tillman (30). Hats off to Walter for the service’s consistent courage.
Make sure to take a look for yourself at the initial 74 players the experts say could crack Day 1 next spring. In the meantime, here’s a look at what else we saw, heard, read and said about the business of college and pro football this week.
It’s go time: If you are taking the NFL agent exam in 12 days – yes, less than two weeks! – we hope we’ve gotten your attention by now. By the way, here’s our case for using our materials.
Convinced you should use our materials yet? If not, you will after you get a look at what we offer.
· THE best exam prep resource in the market in the ITL Study Guide. It’s a 70-page PDF we send you as soon as you purchase it, and it’s the CliffsNotes for the voluminous Collective Bargaining Agreement.
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Two practice exams (start here) of 40 multiple choice questions each, with an answer key at the end, that will show you exactly how the NFLPA formats and shapes its questions.
· This year, we debuted our online Zoom sessions, six in all, which started in February and which featured Chicago-based NFL agent Ian Greengross patiently taking you through the most difficult concepts in the CBA and working problems step by step. If you missed them, don’t worry: we’ve got all six ready to roll on video. More on that later.
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By the way, if you’re planning on using our materials, and you haven’t signed up for ITL yet, now is an excellent time to do it. Not only do you save money on each of the practice exams ($50 for Exam 1, $25 for Exam 2), but you also have access to the only website in the game that covers everything you need to know about how insiders work and succeed in football. Cancel at any time; you’re never obligated more than 30 days.
Best of all, however, we want you to pass. If nothing in our palate of services matches what you need, hit us up. We’re here to help, and we’ve been doing it longer than anyone else. Let us walk with you through the toughest agent exam in the four majors, hands down.
Agent Exam Prep Zoom Sessions: On Tuesday, we had our latest one-hour session designed to ease your fears re: the exam by taking you through the toughest topics, step by step. Tuesday’s session focused on the drug and conduct policy areas from which we think you’ll see questions. It was a detailed hour unlike anything else you can find, and everyone who joined us got a link to the recording so they can watch it at their leisure. Here’s a rundown of what we covered, with approximate viewing times:
· 4:00 -- Substances of Abuse -- Types of testing; Testing procedure; A sample and B sample; How a player enters the program; Self-referral; Dates that a player can be tested; Length of time to it takes to turn a sample around if tested at team facility; Continued participation; Stage 1 (not to exceed 60 days), not automatically you advance to Stage 2; Stage 2 -- up to 10 tests any month (generally for drugs, but maybe alcohol); no set time for Stage 2; discipline for violations
· 24:00 -- Alcohol
· 26:00 – Non-alcoholic substances of abuse
· 28:00 – Computation of fines, suspensions (technically, you get paid if suspended during a bye week); what if the player gets cut with a pending suspension? Can you play in preseason and work out with the team?
· 36:00 – Performance-enhancing drugs – types of testing (pre-employment, annual, preseason/regular season, postseason, offseason, reasonable cause)
· 42:00 – Unknowing ingestion of drugs
· 43:00 – Levels of punishment per violation – when does the suspension begin? Loss of Pro Bowl/awards when suspended; loss of contractual awards due to PEP punishments
· 48:00 – Memos sent out lately by the NFLPA - Designated for return (IR) - Preseason Training Camp Ramp-up - Practice Squad size/eligibility/elevations
· 1:03:00 – Therapeutic Use Exemption (TUE) – such as ADHD medicine
· 1:15:00 – Given SB and Cap Number for Y4, what is Y1 cap number?
A recording of Tuesday’s session is available for $50 at this link; once you’ve purchased it, we’ll ship it over. However, perhaps you’re a visual learner and you’d like instruction on even more CBA topics. Here’s a rundown of everything we offer and the links to order.
· February ($50 plus tax): Given a signing bonus and Year 4 cap number, calculate rookie salary. Also, June 1 rule and agent fee calculation when a player terminates his representation mid-contract.
· March ($50 plus tax): Difference between accrued, credited for benefits and credited for salary, and what each of these designations mean for the purposes of free agency, etc. Split-salary contracts. Exclusive rights free agency (zero, one or two accrued seasons), restricted free agent (at least three accrued seasons), transition tag, franchise tag, exclusive franchise tag. Minimum salaries based on credited seasons, when you are counted as active based on what day you get, when a player goes to waivers when he’s cut. Workman’s comp offsets. Termination pay and pay for players who get cut. Veteran salary benefit.
· April ($50 plus tax): Calculating minimum tenders for franchise and transition players. Preseason split and in-season split, types of splits, definition, etc. Calculating contracts with up/down amounts. Calculating payment to a player on practice squad. Extended injury protections and worker’s compensation offsets. What is the rookie salary given signing bonus and cap number for Year 4?
· May ($50 plus tax): Veteran salary benefit. Termination pay. Injury grievance. Proven Performance Escalator. Draft signals. Agent fee calculation. Split contract calculation/IR. Practice squad salary computation.
· June ($50 plus tax): RFA tenders. PPE. Fifth year option. Minicamp rules. Reporting dates. Offseason workout rules. Option bonuses. Five-day acclimation period.
Remember, if you buy at least four of them, we give them to you for $35 (plus tax) each. Contact us today and let’s get started tailoring the perfect package for you. Time’s wasting.
The ITL Rising Contract Advisor Newsletter: For those who have the agent exam in their past, we spoke to several of the new agents who are part of Team ITL and who pulled off the monumental task of putting players on active NFL rosters in Year 1. On Monday, we spoke to Derek Hawkridge, followed by Jeremy Hebert on Tuesday, Michael DelleDonne on Wednesday and Nick Linta on Thursday. There’s more where that came from, and we’ll have four more this week. If you’re taking the exam this month, make sure you’re reading our newsletter for tips, counsel and encouragement on how to get past the exam and beyond in one of the toughest rookie years in sports, and it’s totally free. Not getting it? Let us know.
More NIL scoop: On the other hand, maybe you already got past the NFL agent exam and you’re looking to up your name, image and likeness game. Once again, for our weekly Succeed in Football blog, we turned to Vantage Management Group’s Sammy Spina for advice on how to navigate a still-developing world. He answered three key questions we always get from agents and even players, which are:
· What’s the best mix between “self-generated” income (apparel and branded merchandise) and sponsored income (appearances, endorsements and social media)?
· What’s the minimum number of social media followers one needs to make money in NIL? And does it matter which platform?
· How much of NIL income is totally dependent on a player’s school? Geographic location? Position he plays?
Catching Up: Dax Nollenberger, 31, worked for the Browns for six seasons, two in equipment and four in scouting. We caught up with him last month.
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Where are you living and what are you doing now? “I am living in Santa Cruz, CA. I wear many different hats now, one being founder of Elite Scout School. When I was transitioning into scouting, I was woefully naïve and underprepared despite fairly extensive football knowledge. Scouting has its own language and evaluation is an art. In hindsight, I wish I had a stronger scouting base so I could hit the ground running but, at the time, I was unaware of any resources available at low cost to help someone get into the industry. That’s why I started ESS, to help people prepare to land their dream job. I also work in real estate locally.”
· Do you miss the job? What do you miss most? “I do in some ways, but I get my fix with Elite Scout School. Deciding to transition out of traditional scouting was one of the hardest decisions I’ve ever made. I certainly miss the people that I worked with daily. We were all in the grind together, experiencing the trials and tribulations that occur during a rebuild while trying to build our career and get better every day. The NFL is full of some exceptional people. The cumulative work ethic amongst the league is insanely high and I have admiration for many that I interacted with.”
· Do you keep in touch with any of your former colleagues? “I do. In addition to the strong personal relationships that I built over the six years in Cleveland, Elite Scout School has allowed me to kind of ‘stay in the loop’ in terms of more consistent business communication. There are so many people within the league that are willing to help and give guidance to prospective scouts. I root so hard for the guys I worked with in Cleveland and the clients I have helped through ESS. I have no doubt there are a few GMs amongst them.”
· Do you go to any live games (HS/college/pro)? “The transition out of the NFL has allowed me to become a true fan again. Although COVID put a temporary hamper on live sporting events, I am looking forward to going to some Browns games in the future.”
· Are there any players you love to watch and/or feel close to due to your work in the game? “The vast majority of the players with the Browns were acquired while I was there, so I root heavily for all those guys. I obviously have affinity for players like Myles Garrett, Nick Chubb, and Denzel Ward. I wouldn’t say I’m close to any of the players. The relationships with players are much closer when in equipment than as a scout, as the interactions become more transactional.”
Review the latest from other former NFL scouts and executives by accessing our Catching Up archive here. Want to hear from a former scout, or know someone who may be interested in being interviewed? Let us know.
Scouting Changes Grid: We didn’t add a whole lot to the big board this week, but here’s what did cross our desk:
As always, you can track the NFL’s shift in evaluators, move by move, since the start of the offseason on our grid.
Next week: We at Inside the League will be doing everything we can do to help prospective NFL agents get ready for July 20 over the next seven days. When we aren’t doing that, we’ll be doing this:
· We’ll dig up the news no one else covers, dealing with agencies, scouting moves, all-star games, NIL, search firms and whatnot, and we’ll pass it along in the Rep Rumblings.
· In our weekly post at Succeed in Football, we’ll focus on a topic related to breaking into the industry. Based on the timing, our guess is that it will center on new contract advisors this week.
· We’re tentatively set to have Zoom sessions this Thursday (July 14) as well as the following Sunday (July 17) and then one more the night before the exam (Tuesday, July 19). All of these sessions will start at 9:30 p.m. ET. Given that we’ve already covered most of the relevant content in our previous six Zoom sessions, the format and content is still to be determined. Bottom line, we’ll have someone there for you to help you in those last-minute skull sessions, especially the night before the big day. More information to come.
· We’ll have four more editions of the Rising Contract Advisors Newsletter, giving you tips, advice and stories on how others passed the exam, then went on to real success in their rookie years as NFL agents.
· With most of the NFL on vacation, scouting moves should be limited. However, whatever we hear, and whatever is reported, will pop up on our Twitter feed and will go into the Scouting Changes Grid.
· In next week’s Friday Wrap, we’ll talk to longtime NFL executive Bill Kuharich for our Catching Up feature and we’ll set the scene for the 2022 NFL Agent Exam.
That’s enough for now. . . or is it? You can always get more of the information that makes insiders go at our site. It’s easy to find. Go ahead. Give it a look.
