July 30-Aug. 5
Next week, college players return to campus to get ready for the 2022 season, and scouts will be close behind them. While the end of summer is always bittersweet, there’s one aspect of the coming months that should encourage everyone: for the first time in two years, the specter of the virus has diminished and we have the chance for a “normal” season of evaluation.
Of course, what exactly “normal” means has changed quite a bit, due to a number of factors. Many of the changes scouts have had to make in the last 24 months are for the better and aren’t going away. But what do scouts really think about the way scouting has progressed during the last couple years? We asked a cross-section of NFL evaluators, young and old, to tell us how evaluation is changing for better and worse. Here’s what they told us.
With access to practices limited, game film is more important than ever: It’s not surprising that none of the scouts we spoke to would cop to a greater emphasis on film, though it’s logical that film consumption rose over the last two years with so many schools closing their doors. Trusting your eyes over strict statistical models is as important as ever: “The more we standardize scouting with ideal measurements and analytics, the more we will miss on outstanding players that do not fit the ideals,” said one seasoned scout. Said another: “(Game film) is the player’s DNA.”
Wearables (Catapult) are growing in influence: Scouts seem to be seeing the benefits of this new technology, though they don’t quite know exactly what kind of impact it will have. “(Catapult) is a real thing that’s taking place right now,” said one executive. “Any GM is gonna want to have a plan in place for (adopting) that.” “There is greater reliance on Catapult because it gets to the heart of ‘game speed,’ which is the goal,” said another. “We are getting better at quantifying that. For example, a TV broadcast might note a player’s top speed, which isn’t real helpful. It’s the speed a player is able to hold and replicate that counts.”
Analytics are becoming more accepted: Though everyone is talking about analytics, scouts we spoke to are still in the dark as to who’s using them effectively and how. “I am curious about the scouting community and what is really real with the perception vs. the reality of analytics . . . I am curious about who’s really driving the train, who’s talking the talk and who’s really doing it.” Another scout sees the value in the new method as long as it’s used wisely. “It’s present. We use it. . . it measures inconsistently but it’s improving.” Said an executive from another team: “Analytics allows us to dial into factors we may not have just a few years ago.”
Access to coaches and players has become unpredictable: One scout decried the decline of relationships between scouts and coaches in the modern age, seeing it become almost adversarial. “The relationship of a good scout and the college coaches is invaluable,” he said in defending information-gathering. “Both want the best opportunity for the college players. . . The job is too micromanaged by the colleges.” Another evaluator said new policies simply necessitate new methods: “There are ways to get around the access to players and coaches piece.” On the other hand, said one scout, “access is returning to normal,” while another said the worst restrictions were regional (“the mid-Atlantic and Southeast don’t have access issues like other regions”).
Social media continues to grow in popularity, for better or worse: Evaluators we spoke to said there’s a tension to relationships that is unmistakable, and it’s not hard to figure out why. “College coaches don’t want to put anything out there because they’re so worried it’s gonna come back on them and cut their legs out,” said one scout. “We have lost the relationship-building aspect between scouts and colleges. On some fronts, (scouts have) broken trust, but then social media has changed the whole landscape.”
Transfers and the portal demand agility and the ability to adapt: Scouts must be more nimble than ever and overcome their reliance on the combines. “The mark of an organization will be the (evaluation of the) Round 7-UDFA (types) because transfers that pop up late will favor diligent scouts,” said one veteran evaluator. “In my experience, it’s tougher to scout a player’s character with all the transfers,” said a veteran area evaluator. “The reality is, the schools don’t even really know these players as well as they used to.”
Bottom line, it’s the team’s job to use the new ways selectively and swirl methods old and new into an effective mix. Summed up one longtime road warrior: “(It’s all) positive as long as you don’t try to mix it all into one grade. Let each stand on its own merits. Let the guy who pulls the draft card weigh it all into the final decision.”
Here’s a look at what else we saw, heard, read and said in the business of college and pro football this week.
No word: For the last two weeks, we’ve discussed the challenges the NFLPA experienced in administering this summer’s agent exam. As you know, in an email sent out the day of the exam, NFLPA official Mark Levin wrote that the Players Association was gathering information on the technical issues faced by so many test-takers and that the union “(expected) to receive that information from the (testing) company in the next two weeks,” at which point he would reach out to those who had significant issues to present the way forward. That was July 20. As of this morning, there was still no word from anyone at the NFLPA. When prospective agents heard something, we’ll discuss it, either on our blog at Succeed in Football, on our Twitter account, here at the Wrap, or all of the above. Hang in there.
In the meantime: Hundreds of aspiring agents are in limbo as they wait to hear if the exam will go forward as normal and results will arrive in the next 3-5 weeks. There’s not much to do during the waiting period, but we have a few suggestions, and we passed them along in our blog. We recommended three things prospective contract advisors should do and two things they should not to do while waiting to hear what’s next from the NFLPA. You can check it out here.
Scouting changes: Agents weren’t the only ones on the move this week. We also tracked a handful of evaluators who are in, out, or moved around since last week, and we recorded it all in our Rep Rumblings. Those moves included:
There's a lot to track when it comes to scouting movement, and we roll it all into our Scouting Changes Grid. We’ve counted 273 moves this offseason, around 50 more than in a normal year, and we expect to chronicle even more next week.
Catching Up: Chet Franklin, 87, spent 27 years in coaching, scouting and administration in the NFL, evaluating players for the Raiders and Saints. We caught up with him last month.
· Where are you living and what are you doing now? “I’m in Oregon, sleeping a lot and doing nothing. I just have an acre lot up here, so I do a little work but not much.”
· Do you miss the job? What do you miss most? “Making a decision nobody wanted to make and having it turn out well.”
· Do you keep in touch with any of your former colleagues? “Are they still around. No, not really.”
· Do you go to any live games (HS/college/pro)? “Occasionally, but I think I’m way past my prime in going out and watching people hit each other.”
· Are there any players you love to watch and/or feel close to due to your work in the game? “I don’t think so. It’s been so long ago, and I’ve been away from it for some long, that i don’t really have a large amount of contact with a lot of them.”
Review the latest from other former NFL scouts and executives by accessing our Catching Up archive here. Want to hear from a former scout, or know someone who may be interested in being interviewed? Let us know.
Rep Rumblings: This week, we had three reports, mostly looking at scouting moves and drilling into the teams features in our Profile Reports.
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On Tuesday, we looked at the way the USFL and XFL seem to be diverging in their talent acquisition strategies, plus we looked at the roots of two players features in our team profiles this week and we looked at a handful of scouting moves that we added to our Scouting Changes Grid.
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On Wednesday, we looked at one of the most disappointing (audacious?) moves of the MLFB, which has been experiencing rough waters over the last week-plus. We also had scouting moves, the latest on the NFLPA exam and player-agent ties.
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Finally, on Thursday, we had NFL and agent relationships of players and coaches at Old Dominion, plus we had a former NFL GM’s current project, a major agent’s new agency and more.
Check out all our work this week (and every week going back 10 years) by clicking here.
Next week: With the Hall of Fame Game behind us and college practices beginning next week, it’s time to get back to business. Here’s where we’ll be putting our attention as players, coaches and scouts get back to work.
· As always, we’ll have five more Profile Reports looking at the best prospects in the nation. Up next: Oregon State, Penn State, Pittsburgh, Purdue and Rice.
· We covered Agent Changes from March to May this week. We think we can roll out the May-to-June switches next week. With a little luck, maybe we can put together the June-to-July moves, as well.
· The hope is that we can use our weekly blog at Succeed in Football to discuss the latest developments and information for those would-be agents who were unable to test due to technical issues. Fingers crossed.
· Our team has been reviewing media guides and racking up the scouting moves we missed. Next week, we’ll start rolling them out on our Twitter feed and listing them in our Scouting Changes Grid.
· Of course, simply pointing out scouting moves is different from discussing what it all means, which is what we’ll be doing in our Rep Rumblings next week. We’ll also use our reports to discuss the latest on the NFLPA Exam front; the latest agent/agency moves; recruiting buzz; all-star developments; and more.
· We’re scanning the country for the subject of next week’s Catching Up feature; we’ll talk to another former NFL evaluator in this space in seven days.
That should be enough for the next week. Of course, if something else happens in the business of football, we’ll be there to probe it, discuss it and tell you what it means. It’s what we always do. Come see.
