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May 3, 2026
Key Developments and What We're Discussing Today:
- I spoke with Israeli Brigadier General Dr. Jonatan (Yoni) Shimshoni about U.S. aid to Israel, declining support for Israel in the U.S., Palestinian statehood, Trump's popularity in Israel, genocide, the Alex Sinclair incident, and what Jewish Americans should do in this moment.
- Trump's failed Iran War proves the wisdom of President Obama's Iran Deal and the folly of walking away from it and starting a war with Iran.
- Democratic members of Congress support Israel. They don't support Israel's government. Anyone who supports the United States but does not support Trump (or didn't support Biden) should understand that concept. We might prefer that Democrats close their eyes to what the American people see, but we should not mistake anger at Netanyahu's policies for diminution of support for Israel's safety and security.
- One can oppose BDS, as I do, and support the repeal of Illinois's so-called anti-BDS law, which is nothing but a political show bill designed to help politicians and organizations check a box claiming that they did something to help Israel while doing nothing to help Israel. After ten years, it has done bupkis to fight BDS, but it muddies the waters by conflating Israel with the West Bank.
- May is Jewish American Heritage Month, the result of a resolution sponsored by Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz in the U.S. House of Representatives and in the U.S. Senate by the late Arlen Specter in 2006.
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Greetings!
On Monday, I met for over an hour at DuPont Coffee Collective with Dr. Jonatan (Yoni) Shimshoni, a retired Israel Defense Forces brigadier general. He is a leader in Commanders for Israel’s Security, comprising nearly 600 former senior officials from the Israeli military, Mossad, Shin Bet, Israel Police, and foreign service.
Shimshoni has taught at Princeton and has pursued research on strategic issues at MIT and the Woodrow Wilson Center in Washington. He has served on several committees of the Israeli National Security Council and, in the IDF reserves, worked extensively on challenging security issues related to economics, technology, strategy, and doctrine. In recent years, his work has focused on society-centric warfare and its implications for strategy.
We are free to agree or disagree with anything Shimshoni told me, but we have to take his views seriously.
U.S Aid to Israel. Shimshoni said, "In principle, phasing out foreign aid is probably the right thing to do. Israel is wealthy enough to carry its own weight, even though it will be an additional burden."
He noted that for many Democrats, reducing aid or restricting sales is an attempt to signal concern about Israeli policies and that Democrats do not have other leverage available to Republicans because Democrats are not in power.
Shimshoni said that Democrats knew that the recent joint resolutions of disapproval regarding certain bulldozers and 1,000-pound bombs would not pass. He explained that neither these bulldozers nor these bombs are vital to Israel's national security, although passage would have sent "a very big signal."
His concern is that using aid or sales to Israel can signal concern about Israeli policies, but can also signal that the U.S-Israel relationship "is transactional, not special. For some, that may be the point. But it sends a signal of distancing from Israel."
Shimshoni said that "if the United States phases out aid to Israel, then it needs to ensure that the special relationship remains special, which it can do through continued joint intelligence, joint strategizing, joint research and development, and consultations."
He said that the better approach, which is not currently available to Democrats, is the Trump approach: Pick up the phone and tell Israel what we want and what we expect. Biden did that, but he did not back it up when Israel did whatever it wanted. "Trump tells Netanyahu, now we will have a ceasefire, now this will stop, and Netanyahu knows that Trump means it; the threats are implied but they are there."
Shimshoni believes that until Democrats regain power, Democrats should talk to the Israeli government and the Israeli public privately and publicly. They should talk to Knesset members. Shimshoni said that it is important for Israelis to understand how their actions are shaping public opinion in the U.S. and to understand that Israel is becoming more and more isolated because of its government's actions.
Support for Israel in the U.S. Israel was once seen by the American public as an economically struggling country that was threatened by stronger militaries throughout the region. Now, Israel is perceived not as threatened by its neighbors, but as a threat to its neighbors. Israel is "now the aggressor, the regional power."
Shimshoni said young Americans, including Christian Nationalists, are less supportive of Israel. In the short term, Netanyahu has narrowed Israel’s base of support, which is now less Democratic and less Jewish. It has become narrow and increasingly unstable, consisting mainly of older Jews, older Evangelicals, and Trump. Shimshoni was clear that he meant Trump specifically remains supportive of Israel, not the GOP generally.
He emphasized, picking up themes from his March 28 article, Israel cannot live securely on force alone, that world opinion matters. "Israel needs to redefine how it sees national security. It cannot be just force. It must understand that the Palestinian issue causes much of Israel’s security issues. Iran, Hezbollah, and Hamas use Israel’s failure to address the issue to gain international support and legitimacy and traction."
He believes that the solution must be multilateral, including Saudi Arabia and others, because Israel and the Palestinians will not be able to reach an accord on their own.
Palestinian statehood. Shimshoni is clear-eyed that a Palestinian state is not around the corner and will not happen anytime soon. However, he said, "Israel has to support movement toward a Palestinian state and support agency of the Palestinians. Since a state is not politically realistic now, Israel must focus on more autonomy for, and more economic cooperation with, the Palestinians."
He emphasized the importance of "separation and confidence building." He said that Israel and the Palestinians must get out of “fools loop," the cycle of reinforcing missteps leading to mistrust on both sides.
Shimshoni recommends that the first step be civil separation. "Not friends, not rivals, but partners. As we say in the corporate world, 'coopetition.'"
Rather than focus on whether settlements are legal or illegal (some are illegal under Israeli law, "all are illegal under international law"), Shimshoni suggests starting to make progress "by getting rid of the ones with very few people. They are not needed for security. They hurt security."
Trump's popularity in Israel. Shimshoni cited two reasons for Trump's popularity in Israel. First, "he got the last hostages out." Biden got more hostages out, and maybe Harris would have gotten the last hostages out had she won, but Trump was president when it happened, and Israelis like that.
Second, there is "lots of support in Israel for the use of force. Trump uses force and lets Israel use force. Many Israelis buy into the notion that Iran is an existential threat and they like that the U.S is fighting its war against Iran."
But support for the war with Iran is rapidly declining in Israel. Israelis ask themselves, “What do we have to show after six pretty miserable weeks?”
Shimshoni explained that "many Israelis think the government lied to them. They were told in early June that Iran was done, and now here we are again. Same with Hezbollah."
Genocide. Shimshoni believes that the conversation itself is not helpful because it shuts down conversation and makes defenses go up. Talking about genocide "makes the argument about what genocide is, not what Israel did."
Better questions, he says, would focus on excessive use of force, the level of civilian damage, whether the destruction was justified, what drove it, and whether Israel could have fought the war differently or ended it sooner. Even if there was no genocide, "it does not mean that what Israel did was okay."
Shimshoni on Alex Sinclair. Sinclair is the Israeli author who was detained by Israeli police for wearing a kippah with the Israeli and Palestinian flags. His Facebook post went viral. Sinclair subsequently wrote about the religious angle in the more secular Haaretz and the political angle in the more right-wing Jerusalem Post. Several Israeli Jewish organizations condemned his detention.
Sinclair concludes his Jerusalem Post piece by explaining "that there are two peoples here. They both, through the ironies of history, have a legitimate historical connection to this land. They both have a right to national self-determination. And we – Zionist Jewish Israelis – will never live in peace until the Palestinian people, in the State of Palestine, do too."
Shimshoni said that Sinclair's detention was symptomatic of Israel's
"democracy deficit situation" and that Israel's October elections are about democracy.
Shimshoni said, "Politization of police is a sign of decline of democracy" and that the Israeli police have "become a political police, by omission in the West Bank [turning a blind eye to settler violence] and by commission within Israel [as evidenced by its treatment of Sinclair].
So what can Jewish Americans do to help? Shimshoni said, "We are missing the positive participation of American Jewry." Israel needs “tough love intervention.”
Yet Federations and other Jewish institutions refuse to step in. They should tell Israel “that what is going on in the West Bank is totally unacceptable.” [As if on cue, the day after we met, the Jewish Community Relations Council of Greater Washington did issue a statement.]
“It is time," he said, "to speak up, publicly and privately but it’s not happening. This is the time, for Israel’s democracy.”
Corrections. I'm entitled to my own opinions but not to my own facts, so I appreciate it when readers bring errors to my attention. In last week's newsletter, I got my directions mixed up: Israel’s western border is the Mediterranean Sea.
In Case You Missed It:
- May is Jewish American Heritage Month, the result of a resolution sponsored by Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz in the U.S. House of Representatives and in the U.S. Senate by the late Arlen Specter in 2006.
- The New York Times reports that "Trump withdrew from the Obama-era nuclear accord in 2018, saying it was the worst deal ever. But Iran responded with an enrichment spree that haunts the negotiations to this day." Read this article if you think Trump made the right decision to withdraw from the deal or if you think he knows what he is doing now.
- Key Democrats explain that their problem isn’t with Israel, nor do they question America's historic and vital role in ensuring Israel's safety and security. Rather, their issue is specifically with Netanyahu and what they view as a belligerent militarism that is undermining American national security interests.
- Soon-to-be Rep. Daniel Biss (D-IL) explains why, despite his opposition to the global boycott, divestment, and sanctions (BDS) movement, he supports the repeal of Illinois's so-called anti-BDS law. I oppose BDS, but this law is the wrong way to fight it. It has done nothing in the ten years since its passage to stop BDS. By extending its prohibitions to territories controlled by Israel, it implies that the West Bank is or should be part of Israel--the opposite of a two-state solution. For more, read Richard Goldwasser's testimony. At least seven organizations sent emails with the same language and identical instructions for clicking a link to fill out a witness slip opposing repeal of this law. Reader, I clicked the link--to fill out a witness slip supporting repeal. This is political theater at its worst. Haven't these organizations any real problems to spend their and our time on?
- Adam Serwer writes that the Supreme Court's Voting Rights Act decision allows lawmakers to engage in racial discrimination in drawing political districts as long as they say they are doing so for a partisan purpose rather than a racist one. Rep. Sean Casten (D-IL) outlines what Congress can do right now to rein in a Court gone amok. We just need to elect a Congress willing to do it.
Tweets of the Week. Morgan Barrett and Dominic Pino.
Thread of the Week. The Nexus Project on the ADL's misguided approach to fighting antisemitism.
Jewish Insider Fail of the Week. Imagine running an article uncritically reporting a Trump administration official's claim that contemporary antisemitism in the U.S. resembles 1930s Germany with no mention of the normalization of Nazism in the Trump administration, nor last week's report that a Trump aide reportedly called certain GOP candidates "Fat Jewish Zionist F*cks." Well, Jewish Insider managed to do it.
Video Clips of the Week. "Oh, do you think he was referring to you?"and Gianmarco Soresi.
Vintage Music Clip of the Week. Sweet Little Rock and Roller - Rod Stewart, Keith Richards & Faces (1975).
The Fine Print. Read the fine print before you reply or send me anything.
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Be sure to read my posts on distinguishing anti-Zionism from antisemitism, understanding the words Zionism, apartheid, and genocide, how to heal the generational rift on Israel and antisemitism, and the IHRA definition of antisemitism.
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