The joint investment committee of Horizon and Impel Wealth Management met today. We began by reviewing the performance of our model portfolios against their risk-adjusted benchmarks. All of the model portfolios have rebounded nicely in conjunction with the uptick in the markets during the first two months of calendar year 2019. On a longer-term basis, all of the model portfolios tracked have beaten their benchmarks over the last one, three, and five-year periods. The committee was pleased with the returns on both an absolute and a risk-adjusted basis.
We reviewed the market commentaries and strategy outlooks from the seven economic teams followed by the committee. There seems to be a more cautious tone to a number of the strategists. This comes in conjunction with a slowdown in economic data from its rather torrid pace that we saw subsequent to the tax cuts and through the summer months of 2018. There are concerns that this economic recovery and bull market are now 10 years old and in the latter stages. There are also some questions about how long this stage of the economic recovery could last.
Some of this will be dependent upon if and how quickly the Federal Reserve Bank raises interest rates, the success of future trade and tariff deals between the United States, China, Europe, and Japan, as well as any potential for infrastructure spending, which could be stimulative to the economy. If all of these things go right, it could be two to three additional years before we see a recession or economic downturn. If none of them are positively resolved, we could see an economic downturn as early as 2020.
Remember there are also political issues that are ever-present in today's world that nobody can predict or control, but can sometimes have an impact on markets and economies. While we are hopeful that there could be bipartisan cooperation on some issues in Washington, D.C., we know the closer that we get to the next presidential and congressional elections and the debates that come along with them, the more people will posture around their various positions and be less willing to negotiate favorable short-term outcomes for fear of giving someone across the aisle a win. We will continue to monitor these situations going forward.
The S&P 500 is trading just below 2,800 as we speak today. There seems to be a longer-term trading range of approximately 2,815 on the top side, where there is some resistance, to a support level of 2,615 that the market has traded in over the last 15 months. We believe that it will take a significant catalyst or news on either the upside or the downside to break out of this trading range. We will be on the lookout for any news or developments.
Against this backdrop, the investment committee decided to make no major changes to our model portfolios at the present time. The adjustments that were made over the last six months seem to have us positioned well for the current markets and economic environment. The committee appreciates and values the trust of our advisors and clients. It is a responsibility we take seriously. Should you have any questions regarding these notes, please do not hesitate to reach out to your financial advisor.
