This Week from Jesse Hurst
Jesse W. Hurst, II
CFP® CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™
AIF® ACCREDITED INVESTMENT FIDUCIARY


Horizon/Impel Wealth Management 
Investment Committee Perspectives
September 2020


Executive Summary
 
● The economy continues to recover from the March and April government imposed shut downs at a faster rate than most people have expected.
● Recent data on the manufacturing and service sides of the economy show the solid growth in both current production and future orders. Additionally, housing seems to be booming due to high demand and low interest rates.

 ● The August jobs report showed that the economy has now recovered more than 1/2 of the jobs lost earlier this year. The unemployment rate dropped significantly below 10% much sooner than anybody expected.

● With markets near all-time highs, we are cognizant that the months leading up to the presidential election could be very volatile and choppy. Therefore, we want clients to be diversified and cautious in the near term.


The members of the joint investment committee of Horizon and Impel Wealth Management met on the afternoon of Tuesday, September 8th, to review our most recent research and thought process around the continuing economic recovery and outlook for financial markets.  The markets are coming off an extremely strong August, in which the S&P 500 index hit several new all-time highs. This comes just five months after the market bottomed on March 23rd during the early part of the COVID-19, coronavirus outbreak and economic shutdowns. 

We are happy to report that all of the models and portfolios managed and tracked by the committee continue to outperform their risk adjusted benchmarks over the most recent one, three and five-year period of time.  The adjustments made earlier in the year by the committee seems to have worked well and have us positioned in a constructive manner at the present time. There was consensus among committee members that no additional adjustments would be made to the model portfolios in the near term.

The economy continues to recover from the viral outbreak and economic shutdowns that were imposed by many state and local governments in March and April of this year.  As the economy has re-opened, job gains and rebounds in manufacturing have surprised on the upside. Additionally, housing has been very additive to the overall economic outlook due to high demand, low inventory, and extremely low mortgage interest rates.  The service side of the economy is doing better than expected with the exception of travel, restaurants, salons and gyms that are still struggling due to partial shutdowns or extremely restrictive conditions that do not allow for full capacity

The August jobs report once again exceeded expectations, both in terms of the number of jobs created and the overall unemployment rate.  There were nearly 1.4M additional jobs created while the unemployment rate dropped to 8.4%.  Many economists and market strategists expected the unemployment rate to remain stuck at the double-digit level for many months following the viral outbreak.  The fact that the market has gotten below a 10% unemployment rate within six months of the initial outbreak is surprising and encouraging, although there are a number of factors, including the employment participation rate and underemployed workers that will need to be watched closely going forward.

While the markets have recently hit all-time highs, we are cognizant that valuations are somewhat stretched.  We are also aware that the two months from Labor Day until election day can be very volatile and choppy based on historical patterns.  Therefore, we think it is a good idea for clients to re-balance their portfolios, allowing them to stay at their target allocations and risk profile, and to make certain that they have the liquidity that they will need for any near-term cash flow needs.  We do want to caution clients against making large changes to their portfolio based on the political outlook or thought process.

To that end, we would like to remind clients that historically markets have continued to climb and people have continued to build wealth by staying in the markets over long periods of time...regardless of whether there is a Democrat or a Republican in the White House.  Remember that individual companies will continue to produce products and services that individuals will want to consume.  We also believe that innovation, technology, entrepreneurialism and free market capitalism will continue to allow these companies to build revenue and profits going forward.

         
 
On a historical basis, stock prices are correlated to corporate earnings. We have not met anyone who will stop taking their blood pressure or cholesterol medication based on which candidate is elected president.  We also believe that individuals will continue to shop for groceries, consume electricity from their local utility companies and buy the latest, greatest technology gadgets as they become available.  None of these behaviors will change based on the outcome of the November election.  We are aware that emotions are high and that many people are firmly in one camp or the other. However, we believe that staying the course with a well-diversified portfolio designed to help you meet your investment goals is the wise course of action. We want you to vote at the ballot box, not with your portfolio.
 
The committee thanks you for your continued trust in our efforts.  Should you have any questions regarding these notes, please do not hesitate to give your advisor a call to discuss your personal situation.  Thanks and have a great day.
 
*Investors cannot directly invest in indices. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
*Investments in securities do not offer a fix rate of return. Principal, yield and/or share price will  fluctuate with changes in market conditions and, when sold or redeemed, you may receive more or less than originally invested. No System or financial planning strategy can guarantee future results.


Sincerely,

Jesse W. Hurst, CFP®, AIF®
Investment Advisor Representative

Your Team at Impel Wealth Management
      
2006 4th St.
Cuyahoga Falls, Oh. 44221
Phone: (330)800-0182
Fax: (234)312-0460

Emails:
 
  
*The views stated in this letter are not necessarily the opinion of Cetera Advisors LLC and should not be construed directly or indirectly as an offer to buy or sell any securities mentioned herein. Due to volatility within the markets mentioned, opinions are subject to change without notice. Information is based on sources believed to be reliable; however, their accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Past performance does not guarantee future results. *
  
Securities and advisory services offered through Cetera Advisors LLC, member FINRA/SIPC, a broker/dealer and a Registered Investment Adviser.
Cetera is under separate ownership from any other named entity.
Is there something we can help you with?  Please call me at 330.800.0182 or email me directly at [email protected].

Impel Wealth Management 
2006 4th Street, Cuyahoga Falls, OH 44221    
P: 330.800.0182    TF: 844.422.5550    F: 234.312.0460