|
November 2, 2025
Key Developments and What We're Discussing Today:
- Political pundits are like weather forecasters and stock market analysts--they can tell you after the fact exactly why something happened but can't tell you beforehand what will happen.
- Today's newsletter tells you what to expect after Tuesday night's elections (that's right, "election" is plural--the New York City mayoral election is not the only election worth focusing on).
- Win or lose, if anyone tells you that Zohran Mamdani is now the face of the Democratic Party or represents a trend on campaign style or policy positions, ask why the same is not true, win or lose, of Reps. Mikie Sherrill (NJ) and Abigail Spanberger (VA), pro-Israel centrists who won Democratic primaries for governor and whose general elections will also be decided on Tuesday night.
- The last time I checked, the office of the President of the United States had a greater impact on antisemitism and U.S. policy on Israel than the mayor of New York City. Trump's history of antisemitism and disrespect for Israel predates Mamdani's birth. Some in our community seem pre-programmed to fear young Muslims more than old white guys, but the facts are your friends when it comes to setting priorities.
- Don't cite or rely on polls of Jewish voter preference unless they are methodologically sound.
Globalize this newsletter. You're welcome to read for free, but if you get something out of this newsletter, you can give something back by credit card or PayPal, by Venmo @Steven-Sheffey, or by check. Thank you.
Greetings!
If Zohran Mamdani wins the New York City mayoral election on Tuesday, you will hear from Republicans that he is the face of the Democratic Party. You will hear that his views on Israel are the Democratic Party's views. You will hear that his campaign style is the style that Democrats must adopt for them to win. You will hear out with the old, in with the young. You will see polling about the Jewish vote in New York City that will support the conclusions of those amplifying the polling results.
Wrong and wrong and wrong and not necessarily and be careful.
Ask those claiming that Mamdani is the new Democratic Party this: Why aren't Abigail Spanberger and Mikie Sherrill the new Democratic Party? Those two pro-Israel Democratic members of Congress will likely win gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia on Tuesday night.
Spanberger and Sherill are not as young as Mamdani, but they are far from old. More importantly, why is winning a municipal election against two deeply flawed opponents more indicative of a trend than winning two state-wide elections?
Even if Spanberger or Sherrill lose on Tuesday, the fact remains that they won Democratic primaries in statewide primaries for the most important office in their states. Why are the victories of moderate, pro-Israel candidates in primaries where all the votes are cast by Democrats less important than a victory in a municipal election over a field of weak candidates?
Magnifying the outliers is a classic GOP trick. We saw it in 2018 when Republicans asked us to go nuts after four "Squad" members were elected.
As Rep. Steny Hoyer (D-MD) used to remind us, 61 Democrats won that year, not four. Democrats continue to overwhelmingly support Israel despite some exceptions who excel at drawing disproportionate and unwarranted attention to themselves. The Democratic platform on Israel is far better than the Republican platform on Israel.
Can you imagine if Mamdani or any Democrat accused the prime minister of Israel of disloyalty and said "F**k him"? Trump did last week.
Can you imagine if a Democrat answered a question about Israel the way JD Vance did last week?
Can you imagine if Joe Biden had said that he would be the one deciding whether Israel would release Marwan Barghouti from prison? Last week, Trump said he'd make the decision. The Israeli military is not happy with Trump's meddling.
The last time I checked, the president of the United States had a larger platform and a greater ability to influence foreign affairs than the mayor of New York City. Yet we aren't seeing scores of sermons and letters signed by hundreds of rabbis directed at Trump.
Republicans want us to forget that the GOP has become a cult that blindly follows Donald Trump despite (because of?) his long record of antisemitism.
You might remember the clips that surfaced when Barack Hussein Obama ran for president or the college op-eds that surfaced when Hakeem Jeffries became House Democratic Leader. The difference is that since Mamdani is much younger, his past is more recent.
If Mamdani wins on Tuesday, try to remember how he has spoken while running for mayor. It's possible that he conned us all. Anything is possible. No one denies his intelligence. It's possible that he's grown and learned from conversations with Jewish leaders and from conversations he's never had before.
Here's a radical idea: If he wins on Tuesday, let's see what he says and does. Let's call him out when we think he's wrong, as we would any other mayor. Let's praise him when we agree, as we would any other mayor. Let's acknowledge the sincerity of those in the Jewish community who feared Mamdani and let's acknowledge the sincerity of those in the Jewish community who viewed Mamdani differently.
To those who say Mamdani's campaign style and his stands on economic issues are the way for Democrats to win, I would say this: You might be right. I ask only that we be careful not to draw conclusions from victories over a weak field and ask that we consider that Sherrill and Spanberger won statewide elections with different styles and messaging, and with records supportive of Israel, on the same night that Mamdani won a mayoral election.
What Mamdani, Sherrill, and Spanberger have in common is that none have Nazi tattoos. To Maine Democrats, I would say this: With a population of 1.4 million, it should not be that hard to find a candidate who does not have a Nazi tattoo.
If Cuomo wins on Tuesday? Cuomo is, after all, a Democrat. Republicans will undoubtedly admit that the city's rejection of Mamdani means that in what was essentially a Democratic primary, Democrats rejected Mamdani and thus Democrats are fine on Israel and antisemitism. After all, with Trump in the White House, they can't criticize Cuomo for allegations of sexual harassment or corruption (although to be fair, with Trump in the White House they can't criticize Mamdani for antisemitism and yet they have). Ha ha. Republicans will find another way to continue their quixotic quest for Jewish votes they will never get.
A caution about the polling you might see on Tuesday night. Remember that not all polls purporting to measure the Jewish vote are created equal. The Jewish Voters Resource Center (JVRC) published an analysis of the Jewish vote that contains an invaluable section that explains why different polls of the Jewish electorate sometimes yield different results. What follows might be a bit technical, but not too technical for readers of this newsletter, especially those who want to think intelligently about polling.
Look not to who paid for the poll, but the poll's methodology. No reputable pollster is going to fudge the results to please its clients. The client might choose not to release unfavorable polling results.
But a pollster that allows false results to be published in its name will not stay in business long. Dismissing a poll simply because you don't like the ideology of the pollster or the person paying for the poll is silly (dismissing a poll because the questions seem biased is another story).
The JVRC analysis explains that properly weighting for Jewish denomination (Orthodox, Conservative, Reform, and unaffiliated) is important. However, the discrepancy we often see between polls of the Jewish vote is primarily explained by whether the poll is specifically designed for a Jewish audience and whether it includes people who are Jewish but do not consider their religion to be Judaism. According to Pew Research, these Jews are 27% of the American Jewish population and vote disproportionately Democratic. Any poll that does not ask the proper screening questions to ensure they are included will not get an accurate picture of the Jewish electorate.
In addition, we should be wary of polls that try to draw broad conclusions based on precinct-level data or polls of certain neighborhoods, as they are usually not representative of the Jewish electorate as a whole.
We should be suspicious of conclusions drawn from crosstabs of Jewish voters from polls not specifically designed to poll Jews. The margin of error for crosstabs is greater because the sample size is smaller, and crosstabs--especially in polls not designed to poll the Jewish vote--often are not weighted to accurately reflect the Jewish population. (Crosstabs are breakdowns of survey answers based on particular variables, as opposed to "toplines," which are the polling results as a whole.)
If you can't tell from the information released about a poll whether its methodology was sound, it probably wasn't. Don't share or rely on polling results unless you are sure.
No matter what happens on Tuesday, no matter how happy or sad we are, we need to pick ourselves up and remember that differences between Democrats pale in comparison to our differences with the GOP.
Trump is the most corrupt and dangerous president in our nation's history. Scandals that would have brought down other presidencies are treated as just another day for Trump. That has to change.
Rather than protecting the Constitution, he is dismantling it. The Founding Fathers envisioned a system of checks and balances to rein in such a presidency. They did not consider that Congress would be replaced by a cult unwilling to fulfill its duties. They did not envision a corrupt Supreme Court guided not by the rule of law or precedent but by whatever the president wants.
They did envision an electorate that would look after its own interests. It's up to us to prove that they were at least right about that.
Corrections. I'm entitled to my own opinions but not to my own facts, so I appreciate it when readers bring errors to my attention. Last week, I misspelled the name of the Republican candidate for New York City mayor. It is Sliwa, not Silwa. I said that Trump did not comment on the threat to murder House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries. Trump did comment.
Here's What Else You Need To Know:
- For the first time in nine days, Hamas handed over bodies of deceased hostages. The remains of 11 hostages remain in Gaza: Joshua Loitu Molal, 21; Suthisak Rintalak, 43; Meni Godard, 73; Lior Rodoyf, 61; Dror Or, 48; Sergeant Oz Daniel, 19; Staff Sergeant Itay Chen, 19; Sergeant Major Ran Gvili, 24; Lieutenant Hadar Goldin, 23; Captain Omer Neutra, 21; and Colonel Asaf Hamami, 41. Gershon Baskin has more on this breach of the agreement.
- Israel's Declaration of Independence includes, among other things, this: Israel "will ensure complete equality of social and political rights to all its inhabitants irrespective of religion, race or sex." Perhaps we should be concerned that in 2025, some people cannot seem to imagine that Israel can be Jewish and give equal rights to all of its citizens. It can--but that precludes de facto or de jure annexation of the West Bank.
-
Shaul Magid: "Did Mamdani say Israel should be a state of all its citizens equally, and that it should not be a 'Jewish' state because he doesn’t believe any state should be defined by a religion or ethic group? Yes. So did Martin Buber, Hannah Arendt, Hans Kohn, Judah Magnes and a host of other Zionists. Does that make them antisemites? One can disagree with all Mamdani’s positions on Israel, as many Jews do. None of them make him an antisemite...New York Jews can vote for Mamdani or not. I don’t care. But this play of Chicken Little that the 'sky is falling' is not only irresponsible, it is beneath the dignity and intelligence of the people I call my own."
Tweets of the Week. Rep. Sean Casten (D-IL), Peter Caddick-Adams, and Super 70s Sports.
Thread of the Week. The Nexus Project.
Video Clip of the Week. How to flirt with women.
Movie Review of the Week. Steve Simels' review of the new Bruce Springsteen biopic (if you like good music, you'll love his blog).
New Music of the Week: From Chicago blues guitar player extraordinairre Dave Specter, The Times They Are Deranging (The Buck Stops Where?).
Vintage Music Clip of the Week. Tomorrow Night - Shoes.
The Fine Print. I read every reply to this newsletter. I reply as often as I can. All I ask is that you read the Fine Print before you reply or send me anything.
For those new to this newsletter. This is the newsletter even Republicans have to read and the original home of the viral and beloved Top Ten Signs You're At a Republican Seder (yes, I wrote it). If someone forwarded this newsletter to you, why not subscribe and get it in your inbox every Sunday? Just click here--it's free.
I periodically update my posts on the IHRA definition of antisemitism and on why Democrats are better than Republicans on Israel and antisemitism. My definition of "pro-Israel" is here (it's a work in progress, as am I).
I hope you enjoyed today's newsletter. It takes time to write and costs money to send. If you'd like to support my work, click here and fill in the amount of your choice. You don't need a PayPal account. If you see something that says "Save your info and create a PayPal account," click the button to the right and it will go away. Or you can Venmo @Steven-Sheffey. Or you can send a check.
| 