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Once a month, In Other News features a short op-ed heavily informed by the European perspective. We hope that these special monthly pieces will offer our readers an enriched understanding of global events and allow for a more robust international risk calculus.
Multiple parties have a stake in the outcome of the devastating war in Sudan, but the European Union is taking a back seat. The latest civil war between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) - led by general Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) - led by Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo “Hemedti”, erupted in April 2023 and has shown little sign of abating. Thus far, the impact on the Sudanese civilian population has been catastrophic: over ten million civilians have been displaced, 25 million are starving, and thousands upon thousands have been killed. The humanitarian situation is dire, famine is ravaging the refugee camps, and the United Nations (UN) agencies cannot cope with the scale of the disaster.
While the traditional Sudanese conflict between Arab and African factions is playing a role, with the Arab Janjaweed joining the RSF and again executing horrible bloodbaths, Sudan is increasingly a theater for outside actors pursuing their own interests. Politically, the SAF is supported by Egypt, Iran, Qatar, and to a lesser extent by Saudi Arabia. The RSF, however, gets political support from Chad, General Haftar’s faction in Libya, and the UAE -- which is concerned about Muslim Brotherhood tendencies in Burhan’s clan.
The role played by the UAE has been a special point of contention. SAF leader Burhan has accused the UAE of direct involvement by supplying the RSF with arms and munitions - a claim denied by Abu Dhabi. The Emirati Ambassador to the UN has further vehemently denied SAF accusations that UAE passports found in the conflict belonged to UAE citizens involved in the fighting. While no independent and verified proof exists for either position, the UN Panel of Experts, set up under the UN resolution sanctioning Sudan, reported in January that the accusations regarding that UAE and Chad provided military support to the RSF were credible.
This week in Geneva, Washington-led diplomatic efforts to find a political solution for the war are continuing, but without the participation of the SAF and RSF there’s little hope for resolution. Indeed, with the refusal of the dueling parties to engage in the talks, the diplomatic conversation has, for the moment, largely shifted from achieving peace to providing humanitarian aid. Of note, while the United States, United Kingdom, United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia are all advancing the discussion, EU nations are striking absent from the effort- marking a possible shift in the EU’s traditional role as a peace broker.
Those seeking a peaceful resolution are actively trying to capitalize on their own political relationships to achieve some progress. During the current round of proximity talks, Ramtane Lamamra, the UN Personal Envoy of the Secretary-General for Sudan is working closely with the United States and United Kingdom to leverage Saudi’s connections with Burhan, and the UAE’s connections with Hemedti. But while Switzerland is also at the forefront of the latest efforts, the discussion is missing the experience and political leverage of EU nations.
In the past, EU nations have been highly active in addressing the challenges in Sudan, but it’s uncertain as to why they’ve stepped out of the conversation and if there are deeper implications of the shift. Whether it’s stemming from political disillusionment, the absence of a fully mandated European Commission after the European elections, the traditional August holiday for Brussels or rejection of its involvement by the parties involved, is not yet clear. Either way, in a later phase the EU’s traditional role of paymaster of political solutions will likely bring it back to the table, provided such a solution is found.
Until then, it’s up to the rest of the world to figure out a solution to a devastating conflict that threatens further instability in an already highly volatile region.
The Arkin Group is a strategic intelligence firm offering investigative research, due diligence, international risk and crisis consulting, and security & preparedness services. We can be contacted at 212-333-0280.
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