March 29, 2024

An authoritarian grasp on society can’t prevent other extreme forces from vying for influence - and without transnational collaboration the threat will only increase. The devastating terrorist attack on Moscow’s Crocus concert hall last week exposed a thorn in Putin’s strong-man side and tells a larger story about both his internal and foreign policies.

ISIS-Khorasan “ISIS-K” claimed responsibility for the attack, and the US government had warned that an attack from this group was imminent. It’s difficult to know if the Kremlin heeded the warning and the attack was simply impossible to prevent, or if the Russians have a policy to ignore Washington at all costs – regardless of the negative impact on their own society.

It’s also likely that Russian security officials lost sight of the threat within their own borders. For over two years now, Putin has been focused on his aggressive war on Ukraine, often drawing troops from the poorer, predominantly Muslim regions of Russia, where the toll of the war has had a particularly hard impact on families and livelihoods. The state also continues to mistreat groups like the millions of Tajik and Uzbek workers who come across the border for economic opportunities.

Indeed, ISIS-K has ample recruiting ground among disenfranchised Central Asians and certain Muslim factions within Russian society, but its grievances against Russia are much larger. The group hates Russia and its friendly partner Iran for their actions against ISIS in Syria - and it’s no coincidence that the Moscow attack happened on the fifth anniversary of the fall of the ISIS “caliphate”. Notably, while ISIS views many US adversaries like Russia and Iran as its enemies, it still wants to target Washington - the enemy of ISIS’ enemy is also its enemy.

Just months before ISIS-K attacked Moscow, the group conducted a double suicide bombing in Iran that killed almost 100 and shattered the illusion of an omnipotent Iranian regime. Like what we just witnessed in Russia - where Putin tried in vain to blame Ukraine for the terrorist attack on Moscow - Iran tried to blame Israel and United States for the ISIS attack on its own soil.

Before that, ISIS-K also attacked the Russian embassy in Kabul in 2022, and bombed Kabul international airport as US forces were withdrawing from Afghanistan in 2021. But the more recent attacks indicate a heightened threat.

The Moscow and Iran attacks demonstrate ISIS’ capabilities outside of their home turf. While ISIS-K- based in Afghanistan/Pakistan- can more easily access Russia and Iran due to proximity of its members, other ISIS branches that are very active in places like West Africa might be better positioned to conduct attacks in parts of Europe. Then again, it was an Uzbek native who attacked New York City in 2017 in the name of ISIS, so nothing is off the table.

China, which shares a border with Afghanistan and is also known for overt discrimination against its Muslim Uighur population, is no doubt nervously watching how Putin handles the aftermath of the attack. While there is clearly no justification for a terrorist attack on innocent civilians anywhere- be it Moscow or Iran, the most recent ISIS attacks speak to a vulnerability that even authoritarian leaders like Putin and Iran’s Raisi can’t escape. Putin’s scramble to maintain an air of control is also a warning to President Xi, and to all leaders who believe that they alone can protect a nation.

To counter a transnational threat like ISIS takes transnational coordination. But instead of using the opportunity to collaborate with “enemies” like the West, so far Russia only seems to be blaming its standard foes like Ukraine and Washington. Indeed, the need to convey absolute power is weakening Putin’s regime in many ways, distracting him from real threats and negotiation opportunities and instead doubling down on his repressive grasp.

But to contain ISIS will require a shift both in Russia’s domestic and international policies. Putin should use this moment as an opportunity to prioritize the true safety of his own population, loosening his repressive civil tactics and ending the war in Ukraine- but that would mean putting his own delusions of grandeur second. And in the meantime, he’ll only become weaker by staying the course.

The Arkin Group is a strategic intelligence firm offering investigative research, due diligence, international risk and crisis consulting, and security & preparedness services. We can be contacted at 212-333-0280.