August 10, 2023

In Niger, a coup underpinned by anti-French sentiment makes space for Russia, but Putin isn’t the partner the junta is hoping for. On July 26, the democratically elected leader of Niger, President Mohamed Bazoum, was overthrown by a military junta- the latest in a wave of coups in West Africa over the past few years. Bazoum is known as an ally of the West and a dependable partner in the fight against Islamic extremism. The United States has over 1,000 military personnel in Niger to help counter ISIS and Al Qaeda threats and encourage democratic rule and regional stability, and France also moved over 1,000 personnel to Niger in the aftermath of coups in Mali and Burkina Faso.

But when there are coups in former French colonies in the Sahel, France is usually the first target. Already, the military junta in Niger has revoked military cooperation agreements with France, although the fate of the US personnel remains undetermined. Nigeriens claim many grievances against the French, including accusations that the French continuously meddle in Niger’s political system to ensure that a French-friendly leader is at the helm. Niger is also one of the poorest countries in the world, and some Nigeriens suggest that the French have been exploiting Niger’s natural resources like Uranium.

Regardless of the validity of the grievances held by many in Niger, however, Russia is in no way a better alternative to France. Upon witnessing the coup, Russian-affiliated Wagner Group leader Yevgeniy Prigozhin was quick to blame the political upheaval on the colonial legacy and sympathize with the coup leaders. He then moved right on to business- promoting his services and touting Wagner’s efforts to contain violent Islamic groups that are prominent in the border area where Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger meet.

But Wagner forces operating in Africa are notorious for grave human rights abuses, including the harassment of aid workers, journalists, peacekeepers, and minorities in the region. Wagner has also been responsible for numerous atrocities against civilians and is known for its use of excessive violence. In its justification for sanctioning the group, the US Treasury describes how Wagner personnel are engaged “in an ongoing pattern of serious criminal activity, including mass executions, rape, child abductions, and physical abuse in the Central African Republic (CAR) and Mali.”

In addition to the many problems with Wagner, Russia is itself in no position to serve as an economic or political alternative to the West. In 2019, when Russia tried to reignite ties at the first Russia-Africa summit, Putin relied on historic and personal connections from the Soviet period, as well as promising trade offers that didn’t depend on political conditions. It was an optimistic time for those involved, and over 40 African heads of state attended the event in Sochi.

But since then, much of Africa’s economic calculus has shifted: at the Russia-Africa summit held last month, only 17 African heads of state attended. Instead of living up to the promises of the first summit, Russia’s trade with Africa has been declining since 2020- while African trade with the EU has nearly doubled. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has only amplified this dynamic, with both the Kremlin’s money and focus diverted to attacking its neighbor. And with the ruble now struggling, Russia is more unlikely than ever to live up to the financial promises that it just made.

Further, even if many African nations mistakenly admire Putin for “standing up” to the West, the war has revealed that Russia is neither a regional nor global powerhouse. Last weekend, leaders from influential nations like India and China met in Saudi Arabia to discuss the parameters for a Ukraine-Russia peace plan- and Russia was not invited. Putin isn’t even going to be physically attending the BRICS summit coming up in late August in South Africa, as there’s an active International Criminal Court warrant out for his arrest. Putin’s withdrawal from the Black Sea grain deal only further distances Russia from African allies and others who depend on these critical products moving freely.

It remains to be seen if Niger will join Russia among the global cohort of autocratic states, but right now the stakes are high. The situation unfolding in the Sahel is reminiscent of the Cold War where Africa was a battleground for power. Should Niger fall under Russian influence, it would be a set-back for both the United States and democratic allies worldwide.

The Arkin Group is a strategic intelligence firm offering investigative research, due diligence, international risk and crisis consulting, and security & preparedness services. We can be contacted at 212-333-0280.