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Import shipments from Asia to the U.S. East Coast will be delayed by the Panama Canal low water traffic jam just as the Christmas season approaches. U.S. West Coast ports should benefit. Christmas goods urgently shipped from Asia into the East Coast may not arrive in time. From Asia you can still MLB by coming into the ports of LA/LB and rail across country.
Expectations of a significant rebound in imports from Asia keep getting pushed back amid sharper warnings of years of container shipping overcapacity and even the potential for long-term subdued American consumer spending. Efforts by carriers to mitigate overcapacity via blank sailings amid depressed container spot rates spell sustained deterioration in container service in general for the foreseeable future. In exchange, the market can enjoy container spot rates below pre-pandemic levels. This is a familiar feature of the container shipping downcycle. Service and spot rates levels fell following the 2008-09 financial crisis, only to recover after a fair volume rebound in 2010. Most are not optimistic that there will be a rebound in Asian imports in the first half of 2024. Many importers still complain of bloated inventories while forecasts for holiday shopping are weak.
EY Parthenon and Bain & Co. predict US retail sales growth this year will be just 3%, compared with 5.8% last year and 13.2% in 2021. Bank of America and Citi Group reported a slowdown in US credit card spending in September.
Importers this month are getting a bitter taste of what they can expect more of: blank sailings. The proportion of total vessel capacity between Asia and North America blanked by skipping port calls is the highest since April, at 23%.
External conditions are what they are. Our containerized imports, which year to date through August were almost exactly at the level of 2019, may or may not bounce back next year due to difficult-to-predict factors as varied as tightening consumer credit, inflation, high mortgage rates or student loans coming due. But how that all translates into pricing and quality of service on the water will be the result of how carriers respond to those market conditions. Nothing else. Pockets full of cash, it was the carriers who splurged on new green tonnage, driving the order book up to nearly 30% of the existing fleet at a time when demand was never going to be sustained at the levels seen in 2021 and 2022 and could remain subdued for another year. And it will be those same carriers who will decide how, and to what extent, to mitigate the impact of overcapacity, including how aggressively to undercut competitors to fill their ships. If they continue to seek market share, they may be doomed once again.
Shippers and carriers in south China and Taiwan are facing days of delays caused by Typhoon Koinu, which barreled across the Taiwan Strait over the weekend, shutting at least eight ports and affecting more than 20 mainline vessels.
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