Weekly Newsletter

The Consumer Price Index unexpectedly eased to 2.4% in January from the same time last year. The latest C.P.I. report comes amid uncertainty over the trajectory for inflation and that relationship with the tariffs which pushed up some consumer prices last year. Over the course of last year, the average tariff rate on imports rose to 13% from just 2.6%. For much of last year, companies tried to avoid raising prices on their customers to cover higher expenses related to tariffs. They did that in part by building up inventory before the higher rates would apply. Those stockpiles are mostly gone now, so we are seeing higher prices on tariff sensitive commodities like furniture, apparel, and household appliances. Officials at The Fed expect the peak price impact from tariffs to hit over the next 3 months, before fading.

On January 26th, the FMC launched an investigation related to possible non-compliance of the Shipping Act by the ocean carriers that may be unjustly and unreasonably restricting truckers and shippers in their choice of chassis providers. The FMC seeks to determine whether ocean common carriers are using practices that directly or indirectly deprive truckers and shippers from negotiating and dealing with chassis providers. Any practices, whether through ocean common carrier association rules, service contracts, or other means, which unjustly or unreasonably restrict truckers and shippers from dealing with chassis providers may violate section 41102(c) of the Shipping Act. Public comments must be submitted on or before March 27, 2026. The FMC previously determined that it is unreasonable under section 41102(c) of the Shipping Act for regulations and practices to require motor carriers and shippers to use only the chassis provider designated by ocean carriers.

On Wednesday last week, The House of Representatives narrowly backed a measure disapproving of President Donald Trump's tariffs on Canada, a rare rebuke of the president and leaders of his party in the Republican-majority House. Lawmakers voted 219 to 211 in favor of a resolution to terminate President Trump's use of a national emergency to put punitive trade measures on Canadian goods, as six Republicans joined all but one Democrat in favor. It was an important symbolic vote in the chamber, where Republicans hold a slim 218-214 majority. The resolution stands a good chance of passage in the Senate, which has voted twice to block tariffs on Canada despite Republicans holding more seats. However, it is unlikely to become law, as it would take two-thirds majorities in both chambers to overcome an expected veto by President Trump. The House approved the resolution a day after three Republicans joined Democrats to narrowly defeat an effort by Republican leaders to block legislative challenges to the tariffs. Members of Congress have been expressing frustration over rising costs for U.S. consumers as well as the impact of the tariffs on businesses involved in international trade.

TPEB rates to the west coast have slipped more than 20% and are all the way back to early December levels, suggesting that prices are already entering the post-LNY, pre-peak season lull. The latest National Retail Federation US ocean import report projects March volumes will dip 5% month-on-month, with Q1 demand expected to be down 7% year on year as retailers exercise caution and as totals are compared to volumes frontloaded in Q1 last year.

Many expect Red Sea transits will resume, but very slowly and primarily for East Med cargo and for the India SC to the E/C of the US. Asia-Europe transits will only resume if insurance premiums disappear. The Houthis are still present and will be volatile and unreliable, so they remain a wild card for any further predictions. Even if Asia-Europe Suez passage resumes, would take many months to stabilize.

It appears that TPEB service reliability levels will remain around 60%, notwithstanding the efforts of the Gemini VSA to pull the industry up. It seems most carriers don’t care enough to do something about it.

Many BCOs are under high internal pressure to contribute to reductions in overall supply chain costs as margins become thinner through higher input costs, somewhat largely driven by tariffs, downstream price squeezing, and weaker demand. 

With the expectation of vessel oversupply in the TPEB trade continuing through the year, importers will push to reduce base rates. They will face some challenges including how to get rid of unmerited surcharges and which carriers to choose from in alliances and VSAs.

Overall, the TPEB market situation is favorable for BCOs. The temptation to drive down base rates will be great because of internal cost pressures and/or wanting to make up for some years of carrier supply strength.

2026 will see berthing and landside restrictions continuing to hinder moving larger vessels into the north-south trades as few terminals are deep-sea; they are river or bay, at best, and are often hemmed in by towns and cities and tidal-constrained.

A stakeholder group looking at truck appointment systems at Port of NY/NJ is expected to release its recommendations this month but may steer clear of how those systems address empty container returns. The management of empty returns has been critical for the port’s truckers, but something that other stakeholders said was outside of the group’s legal limits.

Beth Rooney, Port Director, said at a state of the port event last week that one of her priorities in 2026 is drafting a plan for “moving forward” on 11 final recommendations from the Appointment Systems Working Group (ASWG).

The Port of Charleston has paused work on its near-dock rail yard pending agreements with Class I railroads to service the facility, as shipper demand for more intermodal capacity may not be needed until 2028. South Carolina Ports Authority, Chief Executive, Micah Mallace told state legislators last week Charleston has “slowed construction” of the Navy Base Intermodal Facility until it has finalized operating agreements with CSX Transportation and Norfolk Southern Railway (NS). “We are working on delivering operating agreements with the railroads,” Mallace said. “We aspire to finish that quickly. Upon successful completion of that, we will restart our delivery of the facility.”

CK Hutchison has warned Maersk’s terminal operation arm APM Terminals against taking over operations at Balboa and Cristobal ports as the legal fallout of a Panama Supreme Court ruling continues. At the end of January, Panama’s Supreme Court ruled unconstitutional the law establishing the port concessions for CK Hutchison subsidiary Panama Ports Company (PPC) covering the ports of Balboa and Cristóbal. If the ruling is published and renders PPC’s operations at the ports illegal, operation of its terminals would be impossible, said CK Hutchison, and so the continued operation of the ports rests on the Republic of Panama and its Supreme Court.

Expect significant trucking and drayage disruption in the US. Bankruptcies will rise as seasonality gets more unpredictable. Driver shortages will get worse. The consequences will be price volatility, both up and down, with significant backlogs adding to detention and demurrage bills.

Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration inspectors and state law enforcement sidelined nearly 2,000 unqualified truck drivers and vehicles during the first phase of Operation Safe DRIVE, which targeted major freight corridors and high-risk locations in 26 states and Washington, DC. The targeted enforcement action, conducted Jan. 13-15th, resulted in 704 drivers placed out of service, including nearly 500 for English language proficiency violations, FMCSA reported.

As trucking fleets look ahead to 2026, the operating environment remains challenging, but the outlook continues to improve. Capital costs are elevated, and emissions changes loom on the horizon, but freight rates are beginning to show signs of improvement as supply and demand find balance with the exit of some marginal carriers. The freight recession pushed fleets of all sizes to sharpen their approach to cost control and efficiency. That discipline leaves them entering this next phase leaner, more focused, and better positioned to benefit as market conditions continue to improve.

Seven weeks into 2026, Primary Freight Services would like to take a moment and outline our domestic freight capabilities, with a focus on simplicity and ease of execution.

On our domestic side, we support a full range of services, including LTL, truckload, expedited, hotshot, sprinter, and partial shipments. We leverage a broad carrier network with both contract and spot-market options. All shipments are managed end-to-end through our integrated TMS, allowing you to either transact directly 24/7 or work with a single point of contact rather than managing multiple vendors.

Our team manages dispatch, tracking, and proactive exception management throughout transit. Visibility is a priority—automated status updates can be configured, and our back-office team actively follows every shipment to ensure issues are addressed in real time, so your team is not chasing information.

From a billing and administrative perspective, we provide clear, consolidated invoicing and dispute support to minimize internal workload. As volumes grow, we can review performance data and adjust strategies to drive cost savings while maintaining service consistency.

We would welcome the opportunity to address any specific questions you may have, and we are confident that we will support test inquiries efficiently and demonstrate value quickly.

Thank you.