Newsletter — November 20, 2025 | | |
A season of gratitude
WR extends warm Thanksgiving wishes to our members, partners, and the communities we serve. This season offers an important moment to reflect on the hard work and dedication of retailers across the state who support jobs, strengthen local economies, and help make our communities vibrant.
We are grateful for your continued partnership and for the commitment you bring to Washington’s retail industry every day. Thank you for all you do, and we wish you and your loved ones a safe and joyful holiday.
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POLICY
ECONOMY
ON THE LOCAL FRONT
POLITICAL NEWS
RETAIL THEFT & PUBLIC SAFETY
IN THE NEWS
TRENDS
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Seattle voters overwhelmingly approve B&O tax reform
With just shy of 71% of the vote, a measure to shift the city’s business and occupancy tax (“B&O tax”) was approved by Seattle voters. Proposition 2 will eliminate the B&O tax for about 75% of the city’s businesses and reduce the tax for another 15%. The remaining 10% of businesses – those with the greatest gross receipts – will see their B&O tax jump by about 60%. Proposition 2 is also expected to raise an additional $80 million in revenue for the city.
Proposition 2 was sponsored by Mayor Bruce Harrell and Councilmember Alexis Mercedes Rinck and backed by the United Food and Commercial Workers union. UFCW 3000 President Faye Guenther and a QFC store manager wrote an OpEd urging approval of the ballot measure. They argued that groceries generally have operate at a 2% profit margin on a very large volume of sales, generating large profits.
In an editorial urging voters to reject Proposition 2, The Seattle Times editorial board argued that the tax measure would raise taxes on a business community already dealing with $9.4 billion in new state taxes, mostly targeting businesses. The editorial board highlighted the 51% increase in the City’s operating fund over the past 7 years as the source of its budget problems.
The Downtown Seattle Association also raised alarms about Proposition 2, citing the fact that 20% of all downtown storefronts are now vacant. “Raising a B&O tax that is already the highest in the nation doesn’t solve the city’s self-inflicted spending problems,” declared the DSA in a statement.
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Boiler rules update under review
The Board of Boiler Rules and the Washington State Department of Labor and Industries are reviewing potential updates to the state rules that govern boilers and pressure vessels. The review focuses on rules in chapter 296 104 of the Washington Administrative Code and aims to align state standards with national safety practices while clarifying and modernizing existing requirements.
The proposed updates would refine several parts of the rules. They include adding or revising definitions, clarifying inspection requirements for low-pressure boilers, extending inspection intervals for organizations that operate and maintain their own equipment, and outlining new expectations for boiler operation and maintenance. Labor and Industries is also considering fee increases that would follow the fiscal growth factor for fiscal year 2027. A preproposal notice was filed in October and, if adopted, the final rules would take effect in July 2026.
Stakeholders are encouraged to follow and participate in the rulemaking process. Study and board meetings are scheduled for November 18 and 19 and additional opportunities for comment will follow after the proposed rules are filed in January. A public hearing is planned for late February, with final adoption expected in April. More information is available on the Labor and Industries website.
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Tariff update on agricultural imports
The federal government has announced new tariff exemptions for more than two hundred agricultural products. Items such as coffee, tea, tropical fruits, fruit juices, bananas, oranges, tomatoes, beef, and select fertilizers are now exempt from the ten percent global tariff that took effect earlier this year. The change is retroactive for goods entering the United States beginning November 13, and eligible importers may request refunds under standard customs procedures.
According to the administration, the exemptions reflect recent progress on a series of trade agreements with countries that produce goods not commonly grown domestically. In recent months, the United States has finalized agreements with Cambodia and Malaysia and advanced discussions with several other nations, including El Salvador, Guatemala, Thailand, Vietnam, the United Kingdom, and members of the European Union.
Industry groups have long raised concerns about tariffs on products that have limited domestic availability. and have noted that certain commodities rely on imports due to climate and geographic factors. They welcomed the recent decision as a step that may help stabilize supply and support more predictable pricing for consumers and retailers.
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October retail sales show strong momentum ahead of the holidays
New data from the CNBC and National Retail Federation Retail Monitor shows retail sales rising in October, offering encouraging signs as the holiday shopping season begins. The report found that overall retail sales, excluding auto dealers and fuel, increased both month over month and year over year. Core retail sales, which also exclude restaurants, followed a similar trend.
Industry leaders note that consumer spending has remained steady even as broader economic indicators have been mixed. Factors such as continued wage growth, low unemployment, and strong financial markets have helped support shopper confidence as families prepare for holiday purchases.
According to the Retail Monitor, sales grew across most major categories. Digital products led year-over-year growth, followed by clothing, sporting goods, general merchandise, and electronics. Grocery and health-related categories also saw moderate increases. Only furniture and building supply stores reported declines compared with last year.
The positive October results come as NRF projects holiday sales to exceed one trillion dollars in 2025. Unlike survey-based measurements, the Retail Monitor uses anonymized credit and debit card data to provide a current view of consumer spending patterns.
Retailers across Washington can use these insights as they plan for the final weeks of the year.
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Holiday sales expected to surpass one trillion dollars
The National Retail Federation is forecasting a historic holiday season with retail sales for November and December projected to exceed one trillion dollars for the first time. The outlook reflects steady consumer activity even as many households navigate continued economic uncertainty.
The NRF expects holiday sales to grow between 3.5% and 4.2% compared to last year. In 2024, sales increased just over 4% and reached $976 billion. Shoppers are anticipated to spend an average of $890 each, which would be the second-highest amount recorded since the survey began more than twenty years ago. These estimates do not include spending at automobile dealers, gasoline stations, or restaurants.
NRF leaders note that while consumers are mindful of rising prices and broader economic pressures, they continue to prioritize holiday giving and look for value when making purchasing decisions. Retailers are responding by preparing for steady demand, though holiday hiring is expected to be lower than in past years. The industry is projected to add between 276,000 and 365,000 seasonal workers, down from more than 400,000 a year ago.
Despite workforce reductions earlier this year, retailers remain focused on meeting customer needs throughout the peak shopping season.
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Holiday imports expected to slow as shelves remain stocked
The latest Global Port Tracker report from the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates indicates that import cargo volumes at major ports are expected to ease in November and December as most holiday goods have already arrived. Despite an uncertain tariff environment, retailers moved early to secure inventory and limit price pressures. NRF reports that stores and warehouses are well supplied and that shoppers should find a wide range of products at stable prices throughout the season.
Analysts note that shifting tariff policies have created challenges for long-term planning among importers and carriers. Current projections suggest modest declines in import volumes at the end of 2025, along with a larger drop anticipated in early 2026. While a slowdown late in the year is common, this year’s softer numbers are also tied to unusually high imports in late 2024 and frontloaded shipments earlier this year.
NRF forecasts holiday sales to grow between 3.7 percent and 4.2 percent over last year, reaching just over one trillion dollars. Global Port Tracker data shows that after a strong first half of 2025, total imports for the full year are expected to finish slightly below 2024 levels.
The full Global Port Tracker report is available to NRF retail members.
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Challenger Katie Wilson wins mayoral race by just over 2,000 votes
After trailing by about 8% on election night, Katie Wilson narrowed the margin in successive vote tallies until she pulled ahead of Mayor Bruce Harrell on November 10. She ultimately won by a little over 2,000 votes, slightly more than .5%.
Wilson, the founder of the Transit Riders Union, had an extensive platform during the campaign that mixed new progressive policies – including new progressive taxes – with greater government efficiency and effectiveness. With the City Council now finalizing the 2026 budget, the Mayor-elect will not have a large impact on next year’s budget.
On public safety issues, Wilson has expressed support for expanding the alternative intervention program, CARES, which responds to calls involving people confronting mental health challenges. She has also called for expanding police accountability, but her power is limited by the approved contract for the Seattle Police Officers Guild (“SPOG”).
The Mayor-elect recently announced her transition team, a director and four co-chairs.
In the meantime, President Trump fired his first salvo at the incoming mayor. Calling Wilson a “very, very liberal-slash-communist mayor,” the President urged FIFA President Gianni Infantino to pull the 2026 World Cup games from Seattle. The World Cup is the biggest sporting event ever to arrive in Seattle, with 750,000 people expected to attend the games. Earlier this year, Mayor Bruce Harrell pushed back against similar comments by President Trump.
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Spokane parking tax proposal draws mixed response from business community
Spokane business and community leaders are responding to a proposed twelve percent parking tax that city officials are considering as part of efforts to address a significant budget gap. The measure, introduced with limited notice, could take effect at the start of 2026 and is intended to support transportation projects.
City staff note that the proposal would apply to many downtown parking facilities and could influence long-term development. Supporters believe the tax could encourage new uses for underutilized surface lots. Some also see it as a way to shift revenue toward transportation priorities without increasing general fund spending.
Business organizations, including the Downtown Spokane Partnership, have raised concerns about timing, communication, and economic impact. Leaders say that higher parking costs could make it harder to attract customers, employees, and visitors at a time when downtown continues to face challenges related to safety, vacancies, and shifting consumer behavior. Some property managers and business owners worry the tax could add substantial operating costs and discourage investment.
The Spokane City Council is expected to consider the proposal later this month as part of its broader budget decisions. Community members on both sides are urging the city to fully evaluate potential impacts before moving forward.
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Retailers welcome agreement to reopen the federal government
Washington Retail Association applauds the bipartisan steps taken in Congress to approve a measure that reopens the federal government and restores essential services for families and businesses across the country. With the President’s signature, the agreement funds government operations through January 30.
A functioning federal government is vital to maintaining consumer confidence, supporting stable economic conditions, and ensuring that retailers can plan effectively during a critical time of year. The return of furloughed federal employees and the reinstatement of core services will help steady day-to-day operations for both retailers and the customers they serve.
WR encourages lawmakers to continue working together toward long-term solutions that keep the government operating without disruption. Retailers rely on predictable policy environments, reliable federal services, and public confidence to support local jobs, small business activity, and statewide economic health.
As Congress moves ahead, sustained cooperation will be essential to addressing the broader issues impacting communities and the retail workforce. WR will continue to advocate for stable governance that supports a strong retail sector and a resilient economy for all.
| | A security guard stands in the doorway of a store. (Photo: Leon Neal, Getty Images) | |
KIRO NewsRadio Opinion: WA tolerating its way to dead last in retail theft
By Charlie Harger
Host, Seattle's Morning News
Nov 11, 2025, 9:24 AM
I keep saying we get what we tolerate, and it turns out we’re willing to tolerate a lot in Washington.
A recent Forbes study ranks us dead last in America for retail theft. Not the bottom five. Not near the bottom. Dead last. The thieves have apparently discovered what we already knew: Washington is different.
Here’s what that looks like in numbers. We have 48% more retail theft than our population size would predict. The average Washingtonian’s share of stolen goods? $347. The national average is $173. Small business owners report being hit with theft daily, weekly, and constantly.
Same thieves, same stores, zero consequences
We’re not talking about a desperate mom stealing formula just one time to feed her baby. I’ve introduced you in recent commentaries to people — drug addicted people — stealing $500 to $1,000 of merchandise every single day. They sell it to black market dealers for pennies on the dollar.
They are occasionally arrested, released quickly, and return to the same stores the next morning. No detox or treatment required. No consequences that matter. Just catch and release, like we’re managing a fishing pond.
The U.S. Chamber of Commerce puts a price tag on this: $2.7 billion in stolen goods in Washington in 2021. That’s $603 million in lost tax revenue. In a state that just passed historic tax increases because we’re supposedly broke, we’re letting $603 million walk out the door.
Democratic State Representative Mari Leavitt from West Pierce County deserves credit for actually convening the right people to talk about this. She brought together retailers, police, prosecutors, and loss prevention professionals. Not to wring hands, but to face reality.
What they discussed was sobering. This isn’t just about corporate profits; mom-and-pop stores are closing, and workers are being threatened physically. Prices go up for everyone, and the same names keep appearing on police reports, cycling through the system like it’s a revolving door designed by someone who hates doors.
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Retailers support community safety through naloxone access
Retailers across the country continue to play an important role in responding to the ongoing opioid crisis. Many businesses are choosing to stock naloxone, a medication that can reverse an opioid overdose, as part of their commitment to protecting employees, customers and the wider community. This approach reflects a growing recognition that overdoses can occur in any setting and that immediate access to lifesaving tools matters.
Retail workers are often among those most affected by the epidemic. Many report personal or workplace encounters with overdose situations, and national surveys show that a significant share of retail staff are already familiar with naloxone and how it works. By offering training and keeping the medication available, retailers can help ensure that staff and bystanders feel prepared to act during an emergency. This readiness fosters a supportive environment that benefits everyone who enters a store.
Health experts, including researchers at the National Institutes of Health, note that businesses are an important yet underutilized resource in responding to overdose incidents. They recommend expanding training and widening access to naloxone to help reduce overdose deaths. As more retailers adopt these practices, federal efforts that encourage safe bystander response could offer helpful support.
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Dick’s Sporting Goods cites rising retail theft as profit concerns grow
Dick’s Sporting Goods recently reported a notable drop in quarterly profits, linking the decline to an unexpected rise in retail theft. Company leaders shared during an earnings call that losses tied to theft were higher than anticipated, which contributed to a significant reduction in second-quarter performance. The company’s stock value fell following the announcement.
Reports of retail theft at Dick’s locations have surfaced across several states. Incidents have included merchandise taken from shelves in Milwaukee, large amounts of goods pushed out of a Maryland store, and multiple shoplifting cases reported in California. These incidents reflect broader trends affecting retailers of all sizes. Many stores nationwide continue to face challenges associated with theft and shrink, which can influence operations, safety considerations, and overall costs.
Communities and law enforcement agencies continue exploring strategies to address these concerns through prevention efforts and partnerships intended to reduce theft activity. Retailers across the country are watching these developments closely and evaluating how best to protect employees, customers, and merchandise while maintaining a positive shopping experience.
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Retail theft case underscores continued need for coordinated prevention efforts
A recent case in western Washington highlights the growing importance of collaboration among retailers, law enforcement, and state partners to address organized retail theft. According to the Washington Attorney General’s Office, a man responsible for a months-long theft spree across multiple counties has been sentenced in Snohomish County Superior Court.
The individual pled guilty to several charges connected to a series of after-hours break-ins at major shopping centers earlier this year. The thefts targeted stores in Lynnwood, Tukwila, and Puyallup and involved stealing high-value merchandise such as jewelry, footwear, and apparel. Court records indicate the incidents often involved forced entry and significant property damage.
The total loss from the thefts reached hundreds of thousands of dollars before the suspect was arrested by a regional task force. Law enforcement agencies across Pierce, King, and Snohomish counties coordinated investigative efforts that contributed to the successful prosecution.
This case serves as a reminder of the impact that organized retail crime has on Washington communities and businesses. WR continues to support statewide efforts that strengthen prevention, improve reporting, and expand partnerships dedicated to reducing retail crime and enhancing store and employee safety.
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WA lawmakers will join WR to attend NRF’s State Legislative Leadership Experience for the first time
WR and a group of Washington State legislators will attend the 2026 NRF State Legislative Leadership Experience, held during the National Retail Federation’s Big Show in New York City. This marks the first time Washington will participate, as previous Big Show dates have coincided with the start of the legislative session.
The NRF State Legislative Leadership Experience brings state lawmakers from around the country to experience an immersive look into the size, strength, and innovation driving the retail industry. Last year, legislators from across the country toured major retail stores to gain firsthand insight into how retailers create jobs, invest in communities, and address challenges such as retail theft and evolving consumer needs.
During the multi-day experience, lawmakers will attend NRF’s Big Show events, explore new retail technologies, and engage in policy discussions with industry leaders on key issues including organized retail crime, data privacy, AI, and supply chain resiliency.
Washington’s participation in 2026 represents an exciting opportunity to strengthen collaboration between retailers and policymakers and deepen their understanding of the industry’s role as a major economic engine for the state.
Register to attend
Retailers, claim your free expo pass
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Amazon prepares for Cyber Monday with new AI shopping features
Amazon is gearing up for Cyber Monday on December 1 with a suite of new artificial intelligence tools designed to streamline holiday shopping. The company is promoting features that help customers find products faster, compare prices, and track deals more easily during what many analysts expect to be a highly competitive season.
Shoppers will see expanded use of the Rufus shopping assistant, which now offers gift suggestions, personalized product recommendations, and price alerts. Amazon is also introducing Lens Live, a visual search tool that lets customers snap a photo of an item and browse similar products. The company is positioning these tools as practical aids for consumers who want simple and efficient ways to navigate thousands of deals.
Amazon is also enhancing deal tracking through Alexa Plus, which provides instant notifications when items on a shopper’s list drop in price. The company continues to promote its Prime membership options as well, including discounted rates for young adults and qualifying assistance recipients.
With new shopping technologies, expanded deal monitoring, and continued investment in membership perks, Amazon is working to further streamline the customer experience ahead of the holiday rush. The performance of these tools on December 1 will help shape expectations for the rest of the season.
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WR is committed to the principles of justice, equity, diversity, and inclusion. We strive to create a safe, welcoming environment in which these principles can thrive.
We value all people regardless of race, ethnicity, gender, religion, age, identity, sexual orientation, nationality, or disability, and that is the foundation of our commitment to those we serve.
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Renée Sunde, President/CEO — 360.200.6450 — Email
Crystal Leatherman, Dir of Policy & Government Affairs — 360.200-6453 — Email
Rose Gundersen, State and Local Gov't Affairs Associate — 360.200.6452 — Email
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