Newsletter — October 23, 2025 | | |
POLICY
ECONOMY
ON THE LOCAL FRONT
POLITICAL NEWS
RETAIL THEFT & PUBLIC SAFETY
IN THE NEWS
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L&I proposes new rulemaking for isolated worker protections
The Washington State Department of Labor and Industries (L&I) has filed a proposal for rulemaking related to isolated workers, following the passage of Second Substitute HB 1524 during the 2025 legislative session. The legislation grants L&I authority to enforce protections for employees working alone, including requirements such as panic buttons and other safety measures.
The proposed rules will outline how L&I will implement and enforce these protections, including procedures for issuing citations, collecting civil penalties, and handling appeals.
L&I is seeking public input on the proposed rules. Individuals can share feedback by submitting written comments or providing testimony during a public hearing scheduled for 1 p.m. on November 25. The hearing will be held online and is open to the public. Written comments must be submitted by 5 p.m. on November 26 by mail, email, or fax.
For more information or to participate, visit the L&I website or contact the Employment Standards Program at ESRules@Lni.wa.gov.
This rulemaking process aims to ensure consistent workplace safety standards for isolated employees across Washington.
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Retail workforce workgroup report reveals gaps and promising no-cost solutions
The Retail Workforce Workgroup, composed of employers, educators, workforce professionals, and labor representatives, delivered its report to the Legislature this month outlining progress on the five charges required under SB 6296. The report highlights persistent challenges in affordability, regional access to training, and the integration of “durable” or soft skills critical for long-term career success.
Employers reported difficulty finding applicants with strong communication and interpersonal skills and noted limited awareness of existing workforce-training resources. They also emphasized the need for short, flexible, and modular training programs that align with business operations.
Workers and students continue to face affordability barriers, uneven access to Career and Technical Education (CTE), particularly in rural areas, and limited recognition of prior learning or real-world experience toward academic credit.
Drawing from WR’s understanding of current workforce development programs, several no-cost, attainable actions stand out as promising solutions:
- Modify the state’s Customized Training Program and Job Skills Program to further support micro-credentials and short-term certifications.
- Leverage the newly expanded Federal Pell Grant eligibility for micro-credential programs through coordination with workforce partners.
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Recommend collaboration of workforce training organizations with the State’s Small Business Liaison Team.
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Review and replicate successful models such as Everett Community College’s Academic Credit for Prior Learning (ACPL), which helps adult learners convert work experience into college credit through community partnerships.
WR will work with the Legislature and state agencies to implement these no-cost solutions to address gaps identified in the report. Our team is committed to connecting existing resources and strengthening collaboration among employers, educators, and workforce partners to advance retail career pathways without new funding.
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Opinion: After a year of high minimum wages, a new report shows workers are working less and earning less
Mark Harmsworth writes that minimum wages sound compassionate, but they ignore basic economics: when labor costs spike artificially, employers reduce hiring, training, and expansion
Mark Harmsworth
Washington Policy Center
In a follow up to the Washington Policy Centers article showing the immediate negative effects of minimum wage increases in California, a new report from the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) has confirmed that high minimum wages means less jobs and less hours for workers.
The consequences of an aggressive $20-per-hour minimum wage for fast-food workers are now painfully clear. Assembly Bill 1228 (AB1228) enacted in September 2023 and taking full effect in April 2024, was hailed by Governor Gavin Newsom as a “win-win-win” for workers, businesses, and the economy.
The report from the NBER paints a starkly different picture: an estimated 18,000 fewer jobs in the fast-food sector alone, a direct fallout from the policy’s impact.
The NBER study, drawing on data from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, reveals a 2.7% employment drop in California’s fast-food industry compared to national trends from September 2023 to September 2024. Adjusting for pre-law trajectories bumps that figure to 3.2%, underscoring how the wage hike disrupted an already fragile recovery in the sector.
These aren’t abstract numbers, they translate to real families losing entry-level opportunities, particularly for young workers who rely on these jobs as steppingstones to further education and higher paying jobs.
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2026 minimum wage increase and what it means for employers
Starting January 1, 2026, Washington state's minimum wage will rise to $17.13 per hour, reflecting annual adjustments based on inflation. This increase also impacts several wage-related thresholds, including overtime exemptions, noncompete agreements, and youth worker pay.
Regional minimum wages vary. For example, Seattle will set wages at $21.30 per hour, Tukwila at $21.65, and Bellingham at $19.13. In Renton, mid-sized employers will increase wages from $20.57 to $21.57 mid-year, while large employers start at $21.57. Unincorporated King County and SeaTac have their own wage structures depending on employer size and industry. Youth workers ages 14 and 15 may be paid 85% of the minimum wage, or $14.56 per hour in 2026.
The minimum salary for overtime-exempt employees will rise to $80,168.40 annually, with computer professionals needing a minimum of $59.96 per hour. Enforceable noncompete agreements will require earnings of at least $126,858.83 for employees and $317,147.09 for independent contractors.
For rideshare drivers, Seattle trips will pay a minimum of $6.12 per ride, while trips outside Seattle will pay $3.55 or higher depending on trip length. Employers should review these updates to ensure compliance with state and local requirements.
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Retail sales slow in September but remain strong year over year
Retail sales eased in September following a busy summer, but year-over-year growth remained solid as retailers look ahead to the holiday season, according to the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor powered by Affinity Solutions.
The report showed total retail sales, excluding automobiles and gasoline, declined 0.66 percent month over month but rose 5.42 percent compared with last year. Core retail sales, which also exclude restaurants, were down 0.49 percent month over month yet up 5.72 percent year over year.
National Retail Federation President and CEO Matthew Shay noted that consumers appeared to pause spending after strong back-to-school months, choosing to conserve resources ahead of the holidays. Despite short-term fluctuations, he said, continued year-over-year growth signals steady momentum for the retail sector.
September’s gains were widespread across most categories, led by digital products, sporting goods, and clothing stores. Digital products saw the largest year-over-year jump at 21.35 percent, while sporting goods rose 8.81 percent and clothing increased 7.35 percent.
For the first nine months of 2025, total retail sales were up 5.12 percent compared with the same period last year, with core sales rising 5.32 percent.
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Halloween 2025 spending set to break records
Halloween 2025 is shaping up to be a record-breaking season for retailers. Total spending is projected to reach 13.1 billion dollars, surpassing the previous record of 12.2 billion in 2023. About 73 percent of Americans plan to celebrate the holiday, consistent with last year.
Consumers are starting their Halloween shopping earlier than ever. Nearly half of shoppers began purchasing items before October, a significant increase from a decade ago. This trend, often called Summerween, is driven by retailers offering Halloween-themed merchandise as early as June to meet consumer demand.
Top spending categories include costumes, with 4.3 billion dollars expected in sales, decorations at 4.2 billion, and candy leading at 3.9 billion. Despite concerns about higher prices, consumer enthusiasm remains strong, with many prioritizing early purchases to secure desired items.
For retailers, this early shopping behavior presents an opportunity to engage customers ahead of the traditional October rush. By aligning inventory and marketing strategies with these trends, businesses can maximize their Halloween season success.
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Holiday spending expected to remain strong in 2025
Consumers plan to spend an average of $890.49 this holiday season, according to the National Retail Federation’s annual survey conducted by Prosper Insights & Analytics. This marks the second-highest level of holiday spending in the survey’s 23-year history, only slightly below last year’s record of $901.99.
The survey found that 91 percent of adults plan to celebrate a winter holiday this year, with most spending focused on gifts for family and friends. Shoppers are expected to spend about $628 on gifts and another $263 on food, decorations, and other seasonal items.
Early shopping remains popular, with 42 percent planning to start before November to help manage budgets and avoid the stress of last-minute shopping. However, most shoppers still expect to complete their purchases in December.
Online shopping continues to lead, with 55 percent planning to buy digitally, followed by grocery stores, department stores, and discount retailers. The most requested gifts include gift cards, clothing, books, beauty products, and electronics.
Despite concerns about tariffs and higher prices, NRF reports that consumers remain committed to celebrating the holidays with loved ones, reflecting steady confidence in the retail sector heading into the season.
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Consumers expected to return nearly $850 billion in merchandise in 2025
Retailers anticipate that 15.8% of sales will be returned in 2025, totaling $849.9 billion, according to the 2025 Retail Returns Landscape report by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Happy Returns, a UPS company. This figure is similar to 2024, when returns reached $890 billion.
The report highlights that returns have become a key part of the customer experience and a driver of brand loyalty. Online returns remain higher than average, with nearly one in five online purchases expected to be returned. Gen Z consumers, who lead all generations in return activity, average 7.7 online returns annually.
Free and fast returns are major expectations, with 82% of shoppers citing free returns as a top factor when deciding where to buy. A poor experience can be costly, as 71% of consumers say they are less likely to shop again after a negative return process.
Retailers continue to balance customer satisfaction with rising operational costs, shipping fees and tariff pressures. Nearly two-thirds plan to update their returns processes in the next six months, and 85% are using artificial intelligence to detect or prevent return fraud, which accounts for 9% of all returns.
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Seattle City Council approves public safety sales tax
The Seattle City Council has approved a 0.1 percent public safety sales tax by a vote of 8–1, a measure expected to generate about $39 million in 2026. The new tax, authorized under HB 2015, will fund public safety initiatives, including behavioral health and crisis response programs.
Mayor Bruce Harrell’s proposed 2026 budget includes $9.5 million from the tax to expand the city’s Community Assisted Response and Engagement Department (CARE), which sends behavioral health experts to crisis calls instead of police. Supporters, including Council Chair Sara Nelson, said the investment will strengthen treatment services and improve neighborhood safety.
Councilmember Maritza Rivera cast the lone vote against the measure, citing concerns over affordability and the regressive nature of sales taxes, which disproportionately affect low-income residents. Seattle’s sales tax rate, now at 10.35 percent, is among the highest in the country.
Despite the additional revenue, Seattle still faces a projected $140 million general fund deficit starting in 2027. The business and occupation tax restructuring, set for a November vote, is also expected to influence future city revenue.
The new public safety tax awaits Mayor Harrell’s signature to take effect in time to capture full 2026 revenues.
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Olympia City Council raises B&O tax to address budget deficit
Following months of analysis and community input, the Olympia City Council provided staff with direction on October 14 to move forward with Business & Occupation (B&O) tax Scenario 4, a plan designed to close the City’s $6 million budget gap while protecting small businesses.
WR commends the Council for its thoughtful approach in considering the unique realities retailers face. Prior to the vote, WR submitted a letter to council outlining the vital contributions retailers make to public revenues and the disproportionate costs they shoulder. While over 90% of retailers have less than 50 employees, they provide an uncompensated public service by collecting and remitting sales taxes on behalf of state and local governments—an uncompensated responsibility that directly supports public budgets. They also incur higher transactional costs than most other sectors due to the widespread use of credit cards by consumers.
In earlier proposals, the retail B&O tax rate was slated to double. The Council’s final decision reflects a more balanced approach—raising the retail rate from 0.1% to 0.15%—while also increasing the filing threshold to ease administrative burdens for the smallest businesses.
In addition, the Council also raised the sales tax by .1% to fund public safety with the intent to qualify for state matching funds available through HB 2015, a 2025 legislative measure that WR supported to help cities strength public safety investments.
WR thanks Mayor Dontae Payne and the Olympia City Council for engaging the business community throughout this process to preserve Olympia’s reputation as a vibrant and inclusive place to live, work, and shop.
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Bellevue emerges as a growing tech and retail hub
Bellevue, Washington is experiencing rapid growth, attracting attention as a leading city for technology and commerce. Once a small agricultural town, Bellevue has transformed into a vibrant urban center with a strong retail presence and a thriving tech scene. Companies including Amazon, Microsoft, TikTok, and OpenAI are establishing offices in the city, contributing to its fast-paced development.
Key to Bellevue’s growth has been thoughtful city planning, a focus on cleanliness and safety, and robust commercial development. The city offers ample parking, bustling office districts, and a lively mix of restaurants, bars, and hotels. Retail has remained a particularly strong sector, with Bellevue consistently ranking among the top-grossing centers in the country.
Local developers and business leaders have played a major role in shaping the city’s landscape, creating a business-friendly environment that draws both employers and residents. As other metropolitan areas face challenges, Bellevue’s combination of amenities, infrastructure, and strategic growth make it a noteworthy example of a thriving urban economy in the Pacific Northwest.
This growth highlights the city’s potential for continued success in retail, technology, and commerce, positioning Bellevue as an important hub for both businesses and consumers in the region.
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Ballots are out: Support pro-retail candidates
With ballots now in voters’ hands for the November 4, 2025, General Election, the WR encourages members and retail partners to review and consider supporting candidates endorsed by WR’s Political Action Committees, the Retail Action Council PAC and the Local Government PAC.
Endorsed candidates are carefully vetted through questionnaires, interviews, and evaluation of voting records and alignment with WR’s legislative priorities. These leaders understand the important role retail plays in creating jobs, driving innovation, and supporting local communities.
WR members are encouraged to explore the slate of endorsed candidates and visit their campaign websites to learn more and consider direct contributions. Local-level support can help elect pragmatic leaders who value retail as a key part of economic and community growth.
View WR’s Endorsed Candidates List
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Governor Ferguson outlines challenges ahead for 2026 state budget
Governor Bob Ferguson acknowledged that Washington faces a difficult path as he prepares to propose the state’s 2026 supplemental budget. Speaking in Enumclaw on October 16, Ferguson said slower revenue growth, higher costs, and reduced federal funding could result in a shortfall of nearly $2 billion. He added that upcoming federal reductions to Medicaid and other programs will create further strain.
Republican lawmakers have challenged the governor’s framing of the issue, pointing to the 2025 state budget as the source of some of the Medicaid reductions. Senate Minority Leader John Braun and Rep. Travis Couture both argued that federal cuts have not yet taken effect and that the deficit stems from state-level spending decisions.
Ferguson emphasized that he must submit a balanced budget and said significant reductions are likely. He noted that he continues to communicate with legislative leaders from both parties, including Braun and Rep. Drew Stokesbary, about potential solutions.
The governor signed a $77.9 billion budget earlier this year that included new taxes and expanded spending. Ferguson said he will release his updated proposal in December. The 60-day 2026 legislative session begins January 12.
| | Image: Lacey Police Department via Home Depot | |
Man arrested for alleged theft at Home Depot in Lacey
A 29-year-old Olympia man was arrested following multiple alleged thefts at Home Depot stores in Washington. Paul Hoa Tran was taken into custody by Lacey police, with assistance from Olympia officers, after being identified in a theft at the Lacey Home Depot on September 26.
According to reports, store security observed Tran attempting to leave with several buckets valued at approximately $3,490. He fled the scene in a vehicle later confirmed to be registered to him. Tran was located at an Olympia residence on September 30 and was transported to the Thurston County Corrections Facility without incident.
Investigators say Tran may also be connected to a similar theft at a Chehalis Home Depot in early September and a smaller incident at the Lacey store in July. The total value of merchandise involved in the three incidents is estimated at nearly $6,000.
Tran was booked on charges of organized retail theft and second-degree theft and has been banned from all Home Depot locations. The investigation remains ongoing as store security continues reviewing footage to determine if he may have been involved in additional incidents at other stores.
This case highlights ongoing efforts by retail security teams and law enforcement to prevent and address theft in local stores.
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Walmart’s Investment in Washington Communities
Walmart’s presence in Washington goes beyond its stores. Along with providing goods and services across the state, the company has made investments that support jobs, keep supply chains moving and build strong connections with local farmers.
A key part of this work is the grocery distribution center, located in Grandview Washington, which has been in operation since the early 2000s. The facility helps ensure families in Washington and nearby states have steady access to fresh and affordable food. Many of the employees who started there when the center opened are still part of the team today, with several moving into leadership and management roles over time.
Walmart invited WR and state legislators to tour the distribution center. The visit offered a clear look at how the operation works day to day and the scale of what it takes to move products to stores and customers across the region.
Walmart also plays a role in supporting local agriculture through partnerships with Washington farmers and growers. A walk through the produce section in many Walmart stores reveals familiar local names on the packaging of fruits and vegetables.
One example is Sterino Farms, a grower based in Puyallup that has been part of Washington agriculture for nearly a century. Sterino produce like berries, cabbage and celery can be found in many Walmart stores, connecting shoppers to food grown close to home.
WR visited Sterino Farms during the celery harvest. From cutting in the field to bagging and boxing for distribution, the tour offered a firsthand look at the work behind the produce customers see on store shelves. Sterino is one of many farms across the state that Walmart works with to bring local products to communities.
Walmart’s contributions to Washington extend well beyond its stores and distribution centers. The company employs over 23,000 associates statewide, providing meaningful jobs and opportunities for advancement. Walmart also contributes significantly to state and local revenues, with $372 million in taxes collected from customers and remitted to the state, and $85.1 million paid directly by Walmart to state and local governments.
Through these investments, as well as continued partnerships with local businesses, farmers, and community organizations, Walmart underscores its commitment to being a long-term partner in Washington’s economic and community life.
To learn more about Walmart’s impact in Washington, click here.
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CVS expands presence with purchase of 63 Rite Aid stores
CVS Health has completed the purchase of 63 Rite Aid and Bartell Drugs stores across Washington, Oregon, and Idaho, marking a significant expansion of its regional footprint. The agreement also includes the acquisition of prescription files from 626 additional Rite Aid locations across 15 states.
As part of the transition, more than 3,500 former Rite Aid employees will join CVS. The company said it is making targeted investments in store improvements and staff training to support new customers and enhance service. CVS leaders emphasized that the move will help maintain community access to trusted pharmacy care while introducing former Rite Aid and Bartell Drugs customers to CVS programs and products.
Through this deal, CVS gains access to roughly 9 million new customers. Many of the newly acquired prescription files are located near former Rite Aid sites, helping ensure continuity of care.
The transaction follows Rite Aid’s second bankruptcy filing in two years. After struggling to reduce debt and adapt to shifting consumer trends, the company began liquidating operations earlier this month. CVS’s acquisition of selected stores and assets represents one of the final steps in Rite Aid’s wind-down process.
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WR diversity statement
WR is committed to the principles of justice, equity, diversity, and inclusion. We strive to create a safe, welcoming environment in which these principles can thrive.
We value all people regardless of race, ethnicity, gender, religion, age, identity, sexual orientation, nationality, or disability, and that is the foundation of our commitment to those we serve.
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Renée Sunde, President/CEO — 360.200.6450 — Email
Crystal Leatherman, Dir of Policy & Government Affairs — 360.200-6453 — Email
Rose Gundersen, VP of Operations & Retail Services — 360.200.6452 — Email
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