Newsletter — October 26, 2023 | |
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ECONOMY
THE LOCAL FRONT
POLITICAL NEWS
RETAIL THEFT & PUBLIC SAFETY
IN THE NEWS
TRENDS
SAFETY
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Washington’s job market experienced a boost in September with the addition of approximately 7,900 jobs. Despite the increase in jobs, the unemployment rate stayed steady at 3.6%, according to the Employment Security Department (ESD).
ESD’s State Economist, Paul Turek, observed, “The rate at which jobs grew this month surpassed the growth from the previous month.” He noted that while there’s a consistent demand for workers, the general trend still leans towards a slower job growth rate.
In September, 54,073 individuals received unemployment benefits from the ESD—2,862 fewer than in August. The reduction in claims primarily came from the transportation, warehousing, health care, and social assistance sectors.
Interestingly, in the data for August 2023, it was initially estimated that 2,900 jobs were added. However, this number was later adjusted to a growth of 2,500 jobs. National figures reflected a similar trend, with the national unemployment rate in September at 3.8%.
Examining the broader workforce in Washington, there was a slight dip in September, with 6,000 fewer people. This labor force includes everyone above 16, both employed and unemployed. It’s important to understand that being part of the labor force doesn’t just mean being employed. Even if someone is jobless but is actively seeking work, they’re counted. So, a decline in the labor force indicates that people have stopped actively looking for jobs for over a month.
Zooming into specific sectors in September, private companies added 6,900 jobs, while government positions increased by 1,000. Major job growth sectors included professional and business services, education, and health. On the flip side, construction and other services witnessed a decline in employment. Retail services lost 800 jobs in September—3,200 jobs in total year-over-year.
Looking at the yearly growth from September 2022 to September 2023, Washington saw an impressive addition of 55,300 jobs. The sectors that led this growth were education and health services, leisure and hospitality, and government. However, some sectors, like information and retail trade, experienced a decrease in jobs.
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According to combined forecasts from the National Retail Federation (NRF) and the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC), consumers are planning to spend more this year than they did in 2022. On average, shoppers anticipate spending $875 on holiday essentials, representing a growth of 3.8% in retail sales this season. Additionally, a 7.6% boost in Food & Beverage spending is projected, culminating in an expected season total of $1.60 trillion.
Interestingly, while 92% of U.S. adults plan to enjoy winter holiday festivities, the ICSC's Annual Holiday Shopping Intentions Survey revealed that a staggering 235 million (90%) consumers have shopping on their agenda.
Factors like inflation and the rising costs of holiday items are influencing consumer spending habits. 42% of shoppers admit these economic pressures will result in them spending more, while 54% plan to spend less for the same reasons. However, the allure of holiday deals and promotions is anticipated to encourage 38% of the respondents to increase their expenditure.
Consumer behavior surrounding the shopping environment is evolving. Although 204 million (87%) are expected to visit physical stores, online shopping is not far behind. The projected spending is almost equally divided between these two platforms: 41% in brick-and-mortar stores, 42% online, and a notable 17% using click-and-collect services.
One notable trend is consumers' intent to consolidate their shopping, aiming to purchase from an average of 2.4 retailer types this year, a decrease from 3.4 in 2022. Discount department stores are the top choice for 63% of shoppers, followed by traditional department stores and electronics outlets.
Gift cards remain the hot favorite among consumers, with 63% aiming to buy them. Apparel and footwear, toys, games, food items, and electronics follow closely. Notably, experiential gifts are on the list for 22% of consumers, reflecting a rising trend towards gifting experiences over tangible items.
Another shift in consumer behavior is the timeframe of shopping. With retailers starting their promotions earlier, 79% of consumers intend to commence their holiday shopping sooner than usual. Early promotions are the primary motivation for 51% of those starting ahead of time.
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Within hours of Seattle’s new law criminalizing public use and possession of illegal drugs taking effect, Seattle Police made 25 arrests. After passing out leaflets explaining the new law in the morning, police returned in the afternoon to arrest violators in two neighborhoods – downtown at 3rd and Pine and in Chinatown International District’s Little Saigon neighborhood.
Seattle Police Chief Adrian Diaz said that 10 of the people arrested were jailed. Eight were jailed on outstanding felony warrants (including domestic violence, rape, and assault), and two were jailed on new charges (possession with intent to distribute and possession of a stolen gun). The other 15 people were referred to the Law Enforcement Assisted Diversion program and thirteen of the 15 accepted referrals to caseworkers.
“We are going to be compassionate in our approach to getting people connected with services while still making sure our city streets are safe,” said Chief Diaz, adding that these arrests would not have happened without the city’s new drug law. The Chief expects similar action by the Seattle Police Department on a weekly basis.
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Washington Retail was a proud sponsor of the 2023 joint Oregon-Washington Chamber Leadership Conference. The conference in Hood River, Oregon brought together chamber professionals for two days of insightful discussions, education, and networking. Leaders explored topics on community and non-traditional partnerships, developing strategies for success, and evolving the chamber for shifting trends in the workforce. An engaging presentation by Rebecca Martin of the Greater Federal Way Chamber of Commerce emphasized the effective use of economic data for storytelling.
This conference highlighted the pivotal role chambers of commerce play in communities, emphasizing their value as assets for businesses. A Chamber of Commerce is a collaborative network of local businesses and professionals working towards economic growth and community well-being. Chambers provide a platform for collaboration, resource-sharing, and addressing everyday challenges. They also act as advocates, representing local business interests to government bodies and stakeholders.
For retail businesses, active participation in the local Chamber of Commerce is highly significant:
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Networking: Chambers organize events that provide retail businesses with unique networking opportunities. Building connections can lead to partnerships, collaborations, and increased visibility.
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Advocacy and Support: Chambers serve as powerful advocates, representing collective business interests and lobbying for policies supporting economic growth.
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Community Engagement: Retail success is directly correlated to community support. Chambers help retail businesses connect with residents, fostering customer loyalty and enhancing the business’s image.
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Resources and Information: Chambers offer valuable resources, aiding businesses in adapting to market changes, implementing best practices, and navigating regulatory requirements.
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Visibility and Promotion: Chambers actively promote member businesses, offering increased visibility through online directories, event sponsorships, and promotional activities.
Joining the Chamber of Commerce is a strategic move for businesses seeking success in their local community. Networking, advocacy, community engagement, resources, and promotional opportunities create a supportive environment that significantly impacts a business’s success, regardless of size.
Find your local chamber of commerce here.
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After over three weeks of tumultuous discussions and meetings, the U.S. House of Representatives finally settled on a leader. Rep. Mike Johnson, a Republican from Louisiana, was elected as the new speaker of the House. The process was finalized with a vote tally of 220-209 in favor of Johnson, while the opposing Democrats rallied behind Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries.
Johnson’s election was met with enthusiasm from his fellow Republicans. Rep. Elise Stefanik, the Conference Chair from New York, praised him prior to the vote. She described Johnson as a deeply revered Constitutional lawyer with profound faith and a kind individual who possesses the strength and fairness needed for the role. She also remarked that he would be a speaker for “the people’s House.” While initially presenting nine candidates for the role on Sunday, several dropped out, culminating in Johnson’s election.
On the Democrats’ side, Rep. Pete Aguilar of California endorsed Jeffries, not without criticizing the Republican Party for their recent internal discord. Jeffries didn’t hold back either, pointing out the apparent chaos within the Republican ranks that led them back to their starting point after three weeks.
As the new speaker, Johnson has set a decisive legislative trajectory for the upcoming weeks. He aims to address imminent concerns like the potential partial government shutdown in mid-November and the ongoing international appeals for financial aid, especially for Ukraine and Israel. Johnson’s emphasis on effective governance was clear when he reached out to his Republican colleagues, urging them to support his bid for the speakership to ensure the party’s majority in future elections.
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On Monday of this week, Mark Johnson, WR, along with loss prevention specialists Jerry Lerum of The Home Depot and Carl Kleinknecht, The Bellevue Collection Security, presented before the Pierce County Council Public Safety Committee on the topics of public safety, retail theft, and organized retail crime. Councilman Paul Herrera chairs the committee.
The panel shared a recent report from the National Retail Federation revealing that theft rose to more than $112 billion nationwide in 2022. Additionally, 54% of small businesses reported an increase in theft. The report confirmed that stolen products are often sold online to fund other criminal activities such as human trafficking, drugs, weapons, prostitution, and even terrorism.
Thankfully, retailers, law enforcement, prosecutors, social service providers, and elected officials are partnering to address this growing problem. A multi-pronged approach has been deployed and is starting to show results. First, telling the story of public safety, retail theft, and ORC is critical to raise awareness with our representatives and the public.
The recent enactment of the federal online transparency act has made it more difficult to sell stolen and counterfeit goods. The staffing of the statewide organized retail crime task force is nearing completion. The task force is working cooperatively with the Washington Organized Retail Crime Association, which is providing resources to small and mid-sized businesses to help protect their customers and training employees to stay safe.
Critical to the effort’s success is enacting further measures, in particular to allow law enforcement to safely, with training and approval, pursue suspected property criminals in vehicles. Thankfully, the legislature and local jurisdictions have adopted drug possession and use laws centered around treatment options and incentives to increase accountability.
Pierce County Executive Bruce Dammeier announced he is proposing a small business grant program in the county budget. These funds will be appreciated by businesses seeking to purchase theft protection devices and structures to protect themselves.
Pierce County is a leader in the battle to increase public safety, crack down on retail theft, and thwart organized retail crime.
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In collaboration with the National Retail Federation, Washington Retail is spearheading Fight Retail Crime Day today, on October 26, 2023, to spotlight the urgency of tackling escalating retail crime. The 2023 National Retail Security Survey by NRF reveals a startling figure: Organized Retail Crime (ORC) was responsible for a whopping 65% of retailers' shrinkage in 2022. Alarmingly, 67% of retailers observed a rise in violent incidents linked to ORC from the previous year.
The retail sector continues to grapple with the menace of organized retail crime, which resulted in losses exceeding $112 billion in 2022. These intricate criminal operations have ramifications throughout the retail landscape, adversely affecting consumers, workers, and communities across the country.
Congress must take decisive action by endorsing the Combating Organized Retail Crime Act (S.140/H.R. 895). This pivotal legislation champions the cause of safeguarding our retail spaces, their workforce, and patrons.
A notable feature of the bill is its emphasis on fostering collaboration between federal, state, and local law enforcement entities. It proposes the creation of a dedicated Center to Combat Organized Retail Crime within Homeland Security Investigations. Such an initiative is imperative for retailers to counter these nefarious activities efficiently.
Tell Congress to pass the Combating Organized Retail Crime Act (S.140/H.R. 895), legislation that will support efforts to ensure the safety of our stores, employees, and customers.
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Costco, a retail giant known for nurturing talent from within, is witnessing another exemplary career journey as Ron Vachris is set to become its next CEO. With a tenure spanning over four decades at the company, Vachris’s ascent to the top is a testament to the many career opportunities that Costco offers.
Starting humbly as a forklift driver, Vachris’s dedication saw him rise through various leadership positions. He served significant stints as the executive vice president of merchandising, senior vice president of real estate development, and as the general manager of the Northwest Region. Each role reflected Costco’s faith in Vachris’s capabilities and ability to handle diverse portfolios.
Vachris will be succeeding Craig Jelinek, the current CEO, who has a 39-year journey with Costco, starting as a store manager. Jelinek’s era saw phenomenal growth, with the company’s warehouse count soaring from 617 to 861 and revenues more than doubling from $99 billion in 2012 to a staggering $242.3 billion in the recent fiscal year.
Jelinek’s trust in Vachris is evident. “I have total confidence in Ron,” Jelinek commented, emphasizing the caliber of leadership Vachris brings to the table.
The tale of Vachris and Jelinek encapsulates Costco’s culture of internal growth. It is a company where dedication and hard work can see one rise from the grassroots to the highest echelons. This tradition began when James Sinegal, Costco’s co-founder and CEO, passed the torch to Jelinek in 2012, and it continues with Vachris’s incoming leadership.
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Kohl’s is taking steps to stand out this holiday season with significant changes. Spearheading this transformation are two new vital figures: Tom Kingsbury, the fresh face at the helm as CEO, previously of Burlington Stores, and Nick Jones, the new Chief Merchant, who brings experience from big-name UK retailers.
Recent times have not been entirely kind to Kohl’s. They’ve experienced dips in sales, with a notable 9% decrease last year. This decline, significantly influenced by the pandemic’s economic shifts, has nudged Kohl’s to re-evaluate its approach and breathe new life into its stores. Their primary objective? Refresh their brand to pull back and increase their customer base, aiming for a resurgence in sales by 2024.
To do this, Kohl’s is diversifying its product range. Shoppers can expect to see new product lines popping up in stores. Think pet accessories for our furry friends, chic home decor to spruce up living spaces, and a variety of impulse buys, those intriguing items strategically placed to catch a shopper’s eye at the last moment.
Perhaps the most exciting addition is the expansion of Sephora shops within Kohl’s. Beauty products have remained a robust category, even during economic downturns. Recognizing this trend, Kohl’s is rolling out Sephora sections in around 900 of their stores this holiday season. For context, only 200 stores housed these beauty sections just two years back.
In addition to these product changes, Kohl’s is refining the in-store experience. Impulse purchase items will now be more prominently displayed near cash registers. Trendy, seasonal items will be front and center, ensuring they capture shoppers’ attention right as they step in.
All in all, Kohl’s is not just preparing for the holiday rush but is also reshaping its brand identity. With these revamps, the store hopes to become a preferred choice for shoppers this festive season.
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A robust demand from tenants and steadfast consumer expenditure are propelling the U.S. retail property market, as highlighted in Cushman & Wakefield's Q3 2023 U.S. Shopping Center Marketbeat analysis. The retail property vacancy rate in the U.S. declined by five basis points from Q2 to Q3 and by 40 basis points compared to last year, reaching 5.4%, the lowest since the inception of Cushman & Wakefield's records in 2007. The firm notes that such a sharp decline in nationwide vacancies has driven average rent prices up in sought-after markets.
Despite the uncertainty in other real estate sectors due to rising interest rates, the retail segment remains resilient, stated James Bohnaker, a senior economist at Cushman & Wakefield. "With a surge in consumer expenditure, we're seeing more store openings than closures," Bohnaker observed. He also mentioned shifts in demographic and shopping behaviors, leading service-centric businesses to opt for more expansive spaces, especially in Sunbelt suburban areas.
The southern U.S. retains the tightest vacancy rate at 4.9%.
While 2022 saw the lowest retail space completions at 9.8 million square feet, 2023 is on course to surpass this, with only 2 million square feet of new retail space rolled out nationally by the close of Q3. Nonetheless, a revival in retail construction is evident, with Cushman & Wakefield noting an ongoing 13.2 million square feet project.
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In the world of job safety, being consistent is key to keeping workers safe. While there are many safety rules and training programs, it's the regular use of these rules that creates a strong safety environment. This is why sticking to safety practices is so important in creating a safe workspace.
Safety means being able to trust that things will work the same way every time. When workers see that safety rules are always followed, they trust them more. This trust makes the whole safety system stronger. When workers believe in the system, they feel confident that the rules will protect them in many different situations, making the workplace safer.
But consistency does more than just make things reliable. It helps build a culture where safety is a big deal. When everyone always follows safety rules, it becomes a part of the company's identity. Safety isn't just a list of things to do, but something everyone thinks about all the time. This means that safety becomes a natural part of everyone's day-to-day work.
Being consistent also helps companies get better at keeping workers safe. By always following safety rules, companies can see where they might need to improve. This means they can update their safety practices to be even better. Safety isn't something that's just set in stone; it can always get better.
Consistency is at the heart of good safety. It helps build trust, makes safety a part of the company culture, and allows for improvements. By always sticking to safety rules, workplaces become not just safer, but also more trustworthy places for everyone. Companies that understand the importance of consistency, along with other safety practices, are on their way to creating a place where everyone looks out for each other's safety.
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WR diversity statement
WR is committed to the principles of justice, equity, diversity, and inclusion. We strive to create a safe, welcoming environment in which these principles can thrive.
We value all people regardless of race, ethnicity, gender, religion, age, identity, sexual orientation, nationality, or disability, and that is the foundation of our commitment to those we serve.
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Renée Sunde
President/CEO
360.200.6450
Email
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Rose Gundersen
VP of Operations
& Retail Services
360.200.6452
Email
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Mark Johnson
Senior VP of Policy & Govt. Affairs
360.943.0667
Email
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Robert B. Haase
Director of
Communications
360.753.8742
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