|
Baldwin County Transit Need and Demand Analysis
Background
Baldwin County provides transit services through the Baldwin Regional Area Transit Service (BRATS). This service is a demand response transit service providing trips to residents who schedule on their website, over the phone, or through the BRATS app. Service is provided Monday through Friday 7 a.m. to 5 p.m. and fares start at $2 per ride for the first 5 miles and then 50 cents per additional 5 miles. Rides can be booked 7 days in advance, but availability is dependent on ride volume.
In the sections below the terms ‘need’ and ‘demand’ are used frequently. Please consider ‘need’ to mean the universe of all trips, many of which are completed using any means available, including rides provided by other people and services. ‘Demand’ is meant to illustrate a number of trips required by persons in need that could be facilitated through a public transportation service specifically.
Note: The methodologies and calculations utilized here are greatly simplified for the purposes of brevity in this memo. Please review the full text of TCRP 161 for complete details on the factors, calculations, and concepts utilized in this document.
Service Need
Applying publicly available research from Transit Cooperative Research Program (TCRP) Report 161 – ‘Methods for Forecasting Demand and Quantifying Need for Rural Passenger Transportation: Final Workbook’[1], it is possible to estimate the number of residents that require public transportation services, and the General Public Demand on the transit system. This data is generated by evaluating data from the American Community Survey (ACS) including household size by vehicles available, poverty status in the previous 12 months, those 60 years old and older, and those with ambulatory or independent living disabilities[2].
In Baldwin County, there were 2,039 total households without a vehicle, and an estimated 3,405 individuals living in those households. There were also 24,819 persons reported as living below the poverty level at some point within the previous 12 months.
The data also accounted for 70,201 individuals aged 60 or older and 11,906 individuals with ambulatory or independent living disabilities.
As a result of these calculations, it was estimated that in 2023 there were a total of 28,224 individuals in need of passenger transportation services. Compared to a total county population in 2023 of 239,945, this represents 11.76% of Baldwin County’s population that is likely to require some form of passenger transportation service.
Mobility Gap
Going further, TCRP 161 provides a method for estimating a ‘mobility gap’ or a number of trips per day or per year, that are not taken by households due to mobility challenges. For Baldwin County this is estimated for 2023 to be 2,855 trips per day. Over the course of a year (300 days) the annual trip need is estimated to be 856,380. (Note that this is a total universe of trips needed, where many are filled by other services, friends, family, etc.) TCRP 161 states that on average approximately 20% of these trip needs were met by public transportation services at the time of publishing in 2013.
Trip Demand
To estimate the rural public transportation demand, TCRP 161 recommends factors that apply to the values retrieved for the population over 60, those age 18-64 with mobility limitations, and households with no vehicles available. Utilizing these factors as illustrated in the table below, it is estimated that Baldwin County has a general public demand of approximately 219,572 trips per year. These are defined as trips not related to any other social service or public programming and would be trips eligible for reporting to the Rural NTD if provided.
Baldwin County Totals
Estimated Demand - Trips | Persons | Factor*
Age 60+ 70,201 2.2
Mobility Limited Age 18-64 11,906 5.21
Household with No Vehicle Available 2,039 1.52
Estimated Trip Demand (Sum) 219,572
*These factors are utilized as recommended in TCRP 161.
To calculate the estimated annual demand on rural transportation services, the annual mobility gap found above as well as the reported revenue miles for Baldwin County (851,744 in 2023) are utilized. The calculation from page 24 of TCRP 161 yields a result of 98,925 trips. It is noted here that there were a total of 100,167 boardings in Baldwin County during 2023 which yields a value greater than the expected demand.
Conclusion
In conclusion, this information highlights three critical points. First: BRATS appears to be meeting a large portion of the county's transit requirements, demonstrating the effectiveness of the existing system, second: while BRATS is exceeding the demand for those that need transit services, they are currently meeting less than half of the estimated general public demand, suggesting there could be potential to expand services in order to meet these needs; and lastly: further research is needed to understand who is utilizing these services in Baldwin County. Additional research could include daily trip and route density, as well as direct rider surveys. These are important in identifying true use of the system and to prioritize high demand destinations for those using the service most frequently. Broad community outreach can help identify potential riders with demonstrated transportation needs that are not accessing available services. This information could be used to modify service offerings to attract new users, helping to address the unmet estimated general public demand for transit in the county.
Whether the goal is to maintain current service levels or expand to better serve the community, this data provides a compelling foundation for future planning, funding requests, and service enhancements. Understanding the levels of need and demand can help not only improve access to essential services for vulnerable populations but also contribute to the creation of a more equitable and efficient transportation system for all residents of Baldwin County.
[1]Methods for Forecasting Demand and Quantifying Need for Rural Passenger Transportation: Final Workbook (2013) http://nap.nationalacademies.org/22619.
[2] TCRP 161 only calls for the use of independent living disabilities, NADO RF staff included ambulatory disabilities in this calculation as well.
| 
