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What Comes Next
We expect the prevailing global macro regime to persist into 2026 and beyond. Structural forces—including re-industrialization and energy security as governments and corporations build the foundations of AI and quantum computing; persistent labour shortages across developed economies that cannot be meaningfully offset by AI in the near term; a global trading system that increasingly prioritizes stability over efficiency; and sustained, elevated interest rates amid geopolitical uncertainty, rising sovereign debt burdens, and gradual de-dollarization—are unlikely to abate over the next several years.
Canada’s Strategic Response
Canadian public and private institutions are actively positioning the economy to compete within this environment. Initiatives such as the National Projects Office’s efforts to invest in and de-risk critical infrastructure—including mines, ports, and pipelines—alongside the removal of interprovincial trade barriers, the expansion of bilateral trade agreements, increased defence investment, and streamlined permitting processes are reshaping the domestic investment landscape.
On the capital markets side, the Canadian Securities Exchange’s acquisition of the NSX broadens access to capital for mining and resource issuers, lowering funding costs and enhancing market efficiency. Collectively, these measures are re-orienting supply chains, expanding trade infrastructure, and opening new domestic and international markets—supporting durable economic growth.
Leveraging the Next Growth Cycle
As companies innovate around higher input costs, improve recycling and re-use of raw materials, and the new trading order cements itself around long term expectations, the question becomes how can Canada harness near term growth in materials, energy and financials into long term, diversified economic success in information technology and communications, consumer discretionary and long term growth assets.
History offers useful perspective. Canada’s recent relative outperformance followed more than a decade of underperformance, shaped by policy frameworks that failed to sufficiently support domestic technology development, fostered fragmentation across industries, and contributed to declining global competitiveness in key sectors through environmental and tax policy design.
Priorities for Sustained Excellence
Looking ahead, Canada must accelerate domestic adoption of AI while scaling support for AI and quantum R&D to ensure intellectual property is commercialized and retained domestically. The internal diffusion of knowledge will spillover into all facets of our economy, foster an innovation culture, and empower a young, talented labour pool.
Policy should provide Canadian universities, research and development institutions, and science- & technology-focused companies with competitive access to critical inputs—including energy, materials, and capital—thereby strengthening innovation sovereignty and securing competitive advantages in the future economy.
While challenges remain—including cost-of-living pressures, housing undersupply, and modest productivity growth—the current global economic regime presents a multi-year opportunity for Canada. With disciplined policy execution and coordinated public-private investment, the Canadian markets have the potential to convert near-term momentum into long-term, generational economic success.
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