- Market corrections tend to correlate with lower inflation over time. Between 1957 and last year, the S&P 500 had 15 corrections of 19% or more. In 10 of the cases, inflation was lower 12 months later, declining an average of 2.3%.
- Social Security benefits will increase 8.7% in 2023, the biggest cost-of-living increase since 1981. 70 million Americans, or about 25% of the US population, are Social Security beneficiaries.
- Europe is preparing for a world without Russian energy. It has filled storage sites to more than 90% of capacity. Russian gas arriving via pipeline accounts for just 6% of the continent’s gas supply, down from almost 30% before the war.
- In the first half of 2022 the Dow had a loss of 15%, ranking in the top 10% of the worst six-month stretches ever going back to 1896. After almost every 6-month span with a similar loss, the Dow was higher 3 years later by an average of 23%.
Bloomberg- "Torched Stocks Are About the Only Thing Working in Fed's Favor"
Bloomberg- "Social Security Bump Is Rare Good News for Retirees Battling Inflation"
WSJ- "Winter's Approach Raises Stakes in European Energy Crisis"
Barrons "It's Time for Bargain Hunting, Say U.S. Money Managers"
Economic Calendar
Monday:
Empire State manufacturing index (Oct)
Tuesday:
Industrial production index (Sep), Capacity utilization rate (Sep), NAHB home builders' index (Oct), Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic speaks, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari speaks
Wednesday:
Building permits (SAAR) (Sep), Housing starts (SAAR) (Sep), Fed President Neel Kashkari speaks, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans speaks
Thursday:
Initial jobless claims (Oct), Continuing jobless claims (Oct), Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index (Oct), Existing home sales (SAAR) (Sep), Leading economic indicators (Sep), Fed Gov. Lisa Cook speaks
Friday:
Index of common inflation expectations, 5-10 years (Q3), Index of common inflation expectations, 10 year (Q3)
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