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Yes We Kam!

It's Biden-Harris. Joe Biden's record on Israel is longer and stronger than any previous nominee from either party, and he chose a running mate whose foreign policy views match his. Ron Kampeas and Jewish Insider outline Sen. Kamala Harris's (D-CA) connections to all things Jewish. Jewish Democratic Council of America (JDCA) tracks where the presidential candidates and their parties stand on issues of concern to Jewish voters.

Trump's Iran policy failed at the UN. The Trump administration's proposal to extend an arms embargo against Iran was overwhelmingly defeated by the UN Security Council on Friday. The arms embargo that Trump wanted to extend has not "significantly affected Iranian military capabilities, regional behavior, or ability to arms its proxies."

Now the Trump administration will try to snap back sanctions under the JCPOA: "An interesting idea -- if only a certain country hadn't detonated the JCPOA framework." By withdrawing from the Iran Deal without any credible Plan B while Iran was still in compliance, Trump took remedies that otherwise might have been available to the U.S., including snapback, off the table.

On the other hand, lest anyone accuse me of not being even-handed, Jarrett Blanc notes in this thread that Trump did get one country to vote for its resolution, and that's "one more than zero. And, to be fair, they successfully cast their own vote as well."

This follows the failure of Trump's "maximum pressure" campaign against Iran which, as the Washington Post explains, "failed to achieve either its stated or unstated aims: It has not forced Iran to renegotiate the nuclear accord from which President Trump unwisely withdrew; nor has it ended Iranian aggression in the Middle East or caused the regime of Ali Khamenei to collapse."

Iran, not the UAE, is an existential threat to Israel. But...

Israel and the UAE reached an agreement. The roadmap to normalization announced on Thursday between Israel and the United Arab Emirates requires Israel to "suspend" efforts toward unilateral annexation, which throws Prime Minister Netanyahu the lifeline he needed and gives Trump and Bibi a pre-election boost. The UAE emphasized that this agreement is a roadmap toward normalization, not normalization. It's not a peace agreement, but it does enshrine the emerging status quo in the region.

The UAE and Israel have been moving toward normalization for years including, as Biden noted in his statement, during the Obama administration. But the roadmap was announced on Trump's watch, and moving toward normalization is good.

Unilateral annexation was on the table because the Trump administration, unlike previous administrations, allowed it on the table. This agreement temporarily puts unilateral annexation on hold, an achievement akin to fumbling the ball behind the line of scrimmage and regaining lost yardage on the next play.

Israel is further from a two-state solution than it was when Trump took office. Israel cannot remain Jewish and democratic without ceding the West Bank or demonstrating its commitment to ceding the West Bank when the Palestinians demonstrate that they are ready for peace. As a practical matter, that means stopping settlement expansion, dismantling settlements outside the major blocs, and eliminating unilateral annexation from further consideration, not delaying it.

I wrote on April 24, 2019, that "the motivation for annexation differs from the motivation for the BDS movement, but each threatens Israel's legitimacy and existence as a democratic, Jewish state. Bibi opposed annexation until a few days before the election. He knows what it would mean. If anyone can walk it back he can, but he may need our help."

On Thursday, more than a year later, he got the help he needed. The key word in the agreement is "suspend." Bibi said after the agreement was announced that he still plans unilateral annexation, signaling to the right that Bibi is still their guy and signaling to the world that Bibi is not serious about a two-state solution. But that's better than unilateral annexation now, and it preserves the possibility for progress under a Biden administration.

Taking unilateral annexation off the table takes calls by some Democrats to condition aid to Israel off the table. The strong relationship between Israel and the U.S. is based on shared security interests and shared values. Allies can disagree and remain allies. But if Israel contemplates action that flies in the face of our shared values, those of us who care about our alliance need to speak up, because by speaking up, we can prevent bad outcomes.

I disagree with even symbolic conditioning of aid (which is what some Democrats proposed--as currently structured, U.S. assistance to Israel could not be used to finance annexation), but just as we will never know what Trump's role in reaching this agreement really was, so too we will never know the extent to which Joe Biden's vocal opposition to unilateral annexation, reiterated in his statement, factored into Bibi's decision to suspend it--Shibley Telhami explains that the prospect of a Biden presidency and "uniform Democratic opposition to Israeli plans to annex parts of the West Bank was key in the calculus."

This is complicated. Read Michael Koplow's article and these threads by Ilan Goldenberg, Yael Mizrahi-Arnaud and Aaron Weinberg for other perspectives.

Tuesday, GOP voters rewarded anti-Semitism. Several Republican candidates were rewarded for anti-Semitic rhetoric with primary victories on Tuesday. Former congressman Jason Lewis (R-MN) won his U.S. Senate primary. Lewis has said that Republicans had "dual loyalties" to Israel and that support for Israel was the result of AIPAC and a "very strong American Jewish lobby."

Rep. Jim Hagedorn (R-MN), who said Joe Lieberman supported the Iraq War because he was Jewish and who accused his Democratic opponent, Dan Feehan, of being owned by George Soros, also advanced to the general election.

Conspiracy theorist Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA), who has made racist, anti-Semitic, and Islamophobic statements, won her congressional primary. Trump congratulated her. She will win in November.

Sen. David Perdue (R-GA), who has yet to apologize or even accept responsibility for anti-Semitic ads he ran against his Democratic opponent, Jon Ossoff, won his primary.

Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) did not have a primary, but she nonetheless managed to use the anti-Semitic George Soros trope (and threw in some other Jews for good measure) last week.

We also learned last week that GOP congressional candidate Madison Cawthorn (R-NC), who won his June primary, called Hitler “Führer” and displays in his home an early American flag that the ADL says has been appropriated by far-right extremists.

The GOP, led by Donald Trump, has become the party of anti-Semitism and white nationalism.

Last week's newsletter.

ICYMI. Trump is undermining the post office for political gain.

Tweet of the Week. Political Trolling Master Class. Likud Knesset members mercilessly heckle Avigdor Liberman's speech advocating freedom of expression - which he then reveals is word for word the same speech delivered by Netanyahu in December 1995. You don't need to know Hebrew. Watch the 90-second video with the sound up. You'll get it. Bibi's reaction at 0:50 is priceless; he sees it coming before anyone else.

Political Ad of the Week. We Need a Mensch in the White House.

Video Clip of the Week. Eulogy for Donald Trump.

Upcoming Events. Dana Gordon and I are hosting are hosting two great congressional candidates:

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The Fine Print: This newsletter usually runs on Sunday mornings. Unless stated otherwise, my views do not necessarily reflect the views of any candidates or organizations that I support or am associated with. I reserve the right to change my mind as I learn more. Intelligent, well-informed people may disagree with me; read opposing views and decide for yourself. A link to an article doesn't mean that I agree with everything its author has ever said or that I even agree with everything in the article; it means that the article supports or elaborates on the point I was making. I take pride in accurately reporting the facts on which I base my opinions. Tell me if you spot any inaccuracies, typos, or other mistakes so that I can correct them in the next newsletter (and give you credit if you want it). Advertisements reflect the views of the advertisers, not necessarily of me, and advertisers are solely responsible for the content of their advertisements. I read, value, and encourage replies to my newsletters, but I don't always have time to acknowledge replies or to engage in one-on-one discussion. Don't expect a reply if your message is uncivil or if it's clear from your message that you haven't read the newsletter or clicked on the relevant links. © 2020 Steve Sheffey. All rights reserved.